Obamaslide: Under 50 faster than most?: The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted August 26, 2009 5:00 PM
Obama slide.jpg

The gap between approval and disapproval for the president has narrowed, with the president nearing a possible slip below 50 percent approval nationaly. Source: The Gallup Poll.

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

Graphically speaking, the trends in apparent public approval ratings since President Barack Obama's inauguration in January offer a telling story about the rapidly closing gap between those who approve of what the president is doing, and those who don't.

And the people at the Gallup Poll, who have been tracking the president's political pulse daily, say he may be nearing a new turn:

Approval under 50 percent.

The president's approval rating stood at 51 percent in the Aug. 23-25 surveys of the Gallup Poll, which reports its daily track as a three-day average. Other national polls -- the Pew Research Center's, NBC News' -- placed his approval at 51 last week.

Should he slip below 50 - and one poll, the Quinnipiac University poll, already has gauged the president's approval below 50 in the swing state of Florida -- Obama certainly will not be alone among post World War II presidents. Nor is the slide reversible, Gallup notes of presidents who have been there and then won reelection.

"However, Obama, in his eighth month in office, could hit this mark in a shorter time than has typically been the case,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones reports. " If his rating falls below 50 percent before November, it would represent the third-fastest drop to below majority approval since World War II, behind the declines for Gerald Ford (in his third month as president) and Bill Clinton (in his fourth month).''

It took Republican Dwight Eisenhower five years to fall below 50 percent in the public's eye, Gallup notes. It took both Republican George Bush's roughly three years. It took Democrat Lyndon Johnson and Republican Richard Nixon more than two years.

Democrat Jimmy Carter got there a little after a year.

On this day when a nation is remembering the Kennedy brothers, it's noteworthy that Democrat John Kennedy never fellow below 50 percent approval - though he was slain less than three years in office.

With the exception of Kennedy's shortened presidency, the average amount of time before a president has lost majority approval is 23 months, Gallup notes. The typical or median length is 13 months.

"Ford's quick descent to below-majority approval was hastened by his unpopular decision to pardon Nixon in September 1974,'' Jones notes. " Clinton also suffered from a series of missteps in attempting to change policy (gays in the military), fill positions within his administration (failed nominees Zoe Baird, Kimba Wood, and Lani Guinier), and controversy over a haircut he received aboard Air Force One at Los Angeles International Airport.''

Obama started his term in January with one of the higher initial approval ratings in recent history - 69 percent in the Gallup Poll's tracking.

"However,'' Jones notes, "falling below 50 percent would hardly mark a point of no return for Obama. All presidents went back above the 50 percent mark after their initial loss of majority public support.

"And Clinton and Reagan, who dropped below majority approval faster than most other presidents, easily won second terms in the subsequent election.''

The latest findings come from surveys of 1,529 adults conducted Aug. 23-25, 2009, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

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Comments

Three cheers for the Bush&Cheney fringe, they have succeeded in dirtying the waters of American politics, with their malfeasance and incompetence. Their lackeys have contaminated our town halls with more lies, distortions and character-assassinations. What every, real American can be very proud to witness !! Carry-on with your trashing of America and its democratic institutions !! I'm sure that your Republican/Libertarian Party is very proud of your undemocratic shenanigans !! No wonder, you continue to lose election after election !! Please, continue with your stupidity and nonsense, guaranteeing continued, Democratic electoral successes.
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


The lead in on the article says Obama drops below 50% faster than most. The problem is you then show he is above 50%. So your initial premise is false. Then you go on to show that about half of the president since WWII fell below it quickly including both Reagan and Clinton who were both reelected to second terms. This is very a poorly written article.


Pres Obama's poll numbers are slipping not because of Republicans (who always do nothing but oppose everything Dems do) but because Dems and Independents are nervous about getting a good healthcare bill passed. Once a good healthcare bill passes, which (not including the small group of Republican, corporate sponsored, Teabagger townhall screamers) is wanted by a majority of American voters, Pres Obama's poll numbers will shoot back up again. This is actually good news because it shows Pres Obama how serious we are about healthcare reform.
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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ba17aa2-f1b9-4445-a6b8-62b9d1ba8693


Republicans know that if a good healthcare bill passes their electoral goose will be cooked for a generation. If they think this poll somehow means they're scoring points, they're not. The Republican party is polling at it's lowest numbers in 60 years.
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http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/parsing-the-polls/21-percent.html



Three cheers for getting the truth out to the American people. The American people have succeeded in understanding the truth, with their trust in the American capitalism and competence of their understanding of complex issues when presented to them. The dems' lackeys, their union thugs, have contaminated our town halls with more lies, distortions and character-assassinations. It is not the everyday Americans who are "unAmerican or evil-mongers". What every, real American can be very proud to witness is when given a choice and not having bills pushed thru in the dead of night, the American people will choose freedom over gov't tyranny everytime !!

So go ahead you flatliners and carry-on with your trashing of America and its American people and their spirit!! I'm sure that your Democratic/Socialist Party is very proud of your undemocratic shenanigans !! No wonder, your popularity is down to historic levels after only 67 months. Please, continue with your stupidity and nonsense, guaranteeing the ressurection of conservative ideas for generations to come. SO PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHEN ARE OUR TROOPS, COMING HOME?


DaveB,
You should try reading more closely. The article says the president's rating is 51 percent and if it falls below 50 this fall it will have fallen below 50 more quickly than most presidents before him since Gallup started polling There is nothing wrong with the article. Slow down and read carefully. It helps a lot.


I must for a change come to Mr. Silva's defense as he is referring to the Gallup Poll and notes the downward trajectory according to Gallup is for it fall below 50 soon.
And, Dave B., at the same time, though, two polls Mr. Silva doesn't note already have Obama under 50: Zogby and Rasmussen. Rasmussen has had Obama in the 48-50 range for a week or more and Zogby's latest poll has Obama at 45.


What do you expect? The Republicans are hoping that he fails.

Obama just needs to highlight the achievements:

1. Huge accomplishment: stablize the financials.

2. Stimulus bill helped the car sales.

3. Stimulus bill helped road repairs. Just drive around. . .there's new surfacing everywhere. You can't mis sit.

4. Healthcare Reform almost in the bucket.

5. About as well prepare as we can be with the swine flu. Of course, many thing it is just a fear card. But, this thing is real. . .it's coming.


Sure, the ecomony is still a sick puppy. Sure, there are still a lot of problems, but it takes time to resolve.


He is having some problems and his key problem are people still bashing Bush..let us move on..remember HOPE and CHANGE - ya sure you sure are getting that. Ya know there are too many dem party hacks that post to this page..I think I am going to move on ...


Rasmussen has had Obama in the 48-50 range for a week or more and Zogby's latest poll has Obama at 45.

Posted by: John D | August 26, 2009 7:31 PM
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Lil Johnny DramaQueen,
Right-Wing leaning Rassmussen and Zogby are the most discredited pollsters out there, it's not surprising that drooling Wingnutter cretins like you, Brucie and Trickledown Terry are always spouting their numbers as some sort of 'truth' that you're right about something.


Exactly which Repug cartoon character out there do you nuts think is going to beat Obama in 2012? Mittens Romney? Mike Huckleberry? Palin?!?!


You see, you've got nothing, that's why these shifting Obama poll numbers don't bother me.



FITZ,

Are these the poor misunderstood republicans you are talking about that distort the debate on health care? Wait, this is a democrat

http://www.denverpost.com/recommended/ci_13199902

More democrats trying to make the American public look bad.


Just proves America is not falling got his Socialism and Lies.


Yes ...2 wars, 10% unemployment left by the republicans, healthcare cost rising, and bozos yelling at the top of their lungs racist, and communist......hard to understand huh?


Are these the poor misunderstood republicans you are talking about that distort the debate on health care? Wait, this is a democrat
Posted by: Terry | August 26, 2009 8:16 PM
--------------------------------------------------
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No, Trickledown Boy,

These are the Repug nuts Don is talking about, you know, the fringer whackjobs who make up what's left of the Repug party in 2009.
.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/08/21/idaho-deadly-weapon/
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Shouldn't you be busy shaving your back hair at this time of night?



Oh Dumb Dumb Janet, Rasmussen and Zogby are not Republican or conservagtive pollsters. In fact, Dumb Dumb, Rasmussen has been spot on the last two presidential races with his polling.

Bill R., when Obimbo became president, unemployment was still well below 8. It has ballooned under Obimbo to where it will surpass 10 in the next few months.
Mr. Rodney King, Obama's stimulus bill did not spur car sales it was Cash for Clunkers. But you know what, the real trick will be what happens now? What will car sales be in the next few months. The economy needs sustainability. not short term "fixes."
Also, barely 10 percent of the stimulus bill has been spent and most of the road repairs are not part of the stimulus bill. The road projects that are have little signs saying as much. Most road projects have not had them. Summer is and always has been road fix time in the Chicago area.
Also, it was Bush who stabilized the financial markets, not Obama.
And, Loons, Obimbo's problems are not because of the GOP, they are because of him and his party.
AS usual, I have to fix the constant BS coming from the misinformed, derangede, demented Loons from the Left, led by unsexed Dumb Dumb Janet. Remember, Janet, keeping that bazoo closed will serve you better than opening it.


To win in 2012, Republicans will have to arrange for some US Embassy staff somewhere to be taken hostage by some student revolutionaries.

There are not a lot of Embassies left where that could happen, what with hardening and all after the two embassy bombings in 1998..

Maybe, say, Canada?

How about it Republicans?

You could send up some of those preppie types like the ones who went down to Florida in 2000 to disrupt the recount.

They're all white and clean cut--they could pass for Canadians.

You could take the Embassy hostages to Dick Cheney's secure undisclosed hunting lodge in Alaska and hold them for 500 days or so.

That would make Barack look bad.

Unless, of course, and strictly because of the dire national security situation,
Barack ordered Dick Cheney to be waterboarded, with some ancillary electrodes attached to his nether bits if they could be found, until he revealed the location of the hunting lodge.

Then he could send in the Blackhawks.

Well, one can fantacize about possible Republican ploys to regain power...

But, as Jeremy Bentham said, facts are stubborn buggers....

And the fact is, there is no candidate who can measure up to Obama.

Even if you climb all the stairs up to the widow watch above the third floor, and look as far as you can see in any direction, you will not see any Republican who can lay a glove on Obama.


I'm a little worried about the billr's and the Don Fitzgerald's of the looney left when obama plunges below 40%...I hope the obama-scare health plan has free access to computers in the mental ward.

Paulo



Trickled On Anti John E,

Your mom's coming over later for the back hair. Go back to getting carpel tunnel.

It seems Mr. Mcaffee was going about his legal business when he was threatened. Does one have a right to defend themself?

Unlike Mr. Schwenkler who committed a crime and was trying to pin the blame on someone else.

Janet,

Could be that Rausmussen has a record of accuracy.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

You need to quit stalking JD or do you have a crush on him?


You need to quit stalking JD or do you have a crush on him?

Posted by: Terry | August 26, 2009 11:05 PM
-------------------------------------------------------
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Gee Terry B TrickledOn,
Your cut and paste article supposedly "proving" how great Rasmussen is as a pollster doesn't work. I'M SHOCKED!.....not.
You'll have to e-mail PillHead Rush and ask for another link.


Lil' Johnny D is just like you Terry, he's an angry/doughy middle aged white guy who can't get any action. You two should hook up, I hear Republicans are secretly kinky like that.



Nice try Janet. Rasmussen, the most accurate poll the last three elections, measures likely voters. His numbers are much worse there.

News organization and newspaper polls are the least accurate: Gallup itself comes in at a stellar 20th place in accuracy in 2008:

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos. The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.
Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/NYTimes (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

In 2004:
Rasmussen was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

They also had the 2006 Democrat takeover of Congress pegged.

The political science professor who did the research, Costas Panagopoulos, was a former Hillary staffer.


It seems Mr. Mcaffee was going about his legal business when he was threatened. Does one have a right to defend themself?
Posted by: Terry | August 26, 2009 11:05 PM
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Terri,
So, you're admitting that you Repug Teabagger nutjobs are so weak knee'd that you have to use a gun to defend yourself against an unarmed 51 year old man? Ha Ha Ha!
.
http://crooksandliars.com/logan-murphy/idaho-gop-leader-tea-party-organizer



Polls, schmolls...they are only as good as who you are asking and how you are asking the questions. Ask one group slanted one way and the outcome would be different than another group. And then you have the people who are sick of being interrupted at home and give false answers...but i don't know anyone like that! ; )


I talk with people like this everyday.
People who voted for Obama thinking they were going to get something different than are presently getting.
Disappointment seems to be the common thread mostly.
I feel bad for them - it is a bad feeling when you come around to realizing that you've been duped.
And it sucks having to have to go along for the ride...er I mean slide.


Funny.........now polls matter. Didn't seem to when the last president was at 24%. Then they were "proud" how he followed his convictions despite numbers. Bravo "great Americans".


Anyone but obama, 2012.
This guy is an embarassment and the democrats will realize they had everything going for them and their own incompetence did them in, again. You'll see a lot of democrats jumping off obama's sinking ship like a bunch of rats to save themselves in 2010.


As noted above, Rasmussen has had him below 50 percent for quite some time. Zogby, too, but ... well, it's Zogby!

And the numbers show cause for real concern for Obama -- he's losing big time among seniors (no surprise there), and his biggest drop has been among young people.

OK, his stimulus plan has been a complete bust. The Cash for Clunkers will turn out to be one -- you're just front-loading car sales, destroyed the used car market, junked perfectly usable cars and destroyed the used-car PARTS market. Not to mention what will happen when those who bought cars find out they have to PAY TAXES on their rebate! What a disaster.

Afghanistan? Yikes. CiA investigation? More yikes. And now Obama's DOJ is looking the other way on Richardson in NM, no doubt b/c Richardson backed Obama.

Obama is a disaster. And don't even get me started on the health care bill, which will be a huge disaster. If that does pass, Democrats can kiss just about everything goodbye. People WILL rebel, once it turns into the disaster it is.


Not really, Beth dear.

When folk get to be about 60 years of age, they actually look forward to the 65 th birthday and that Medicare Card.

That's better than getting your driver's license at 16.

If you don't believe it, just try taking a senior's Medicare Card away from her.

You'll be flattened.

So get real. Lower premiums, better care for all so catastrophic treatments are avoided...

The only losers are the insurance execs who get those $million salaries for canceling folks' coverage when they have a claim.


What is most remarkable is that the American people caught on to Obama's inadequacies and leftist direction long before the major media did. Maybe that's because the media are as out-of-touch with the American people as the Obama mob.


Just like Reagan and Clinton, this is a bump in the road after the initial "honeymoon period" wares off. Probably because most voters expect too much, too soon from the newly elected president.

As the economy continues to strengthen, and we get a good bi-partisan health care bill, the numbers will go back up.


Rob, I voted for Obama and I have no regrets. Although, I am a little disappointed he doesn't kick the useless Republican Party's ass more often. Obama's numbers are declining because of dimwitted, gullible people like yourself and those that don't think Obama has been tough enough with the idiots in aforementioned useless Republican Party. That will soon change and he will get the latter group back, and then the Republicans can go pound sand, as they are incapable of doing anything constructive.


The democrat koolaid drinkers clearly have a huge emotional investment in Mustapha Mond. Us evil Republicans are really making them feel edgy by driving down Mustapha’s poll numbers. Republicans couldn’t make a dog jump a meat wagon, but they can be held responsible for such a revolting, falling Mustapha Love-thon development.


Nearly all presidents / world controllers are destined to have negative poll numbers at some point in their administration / rule. There’s a chance though, that maybe America is waking up to all of the “changes” that Mustapha and his czars intend to decree ~ DMV styled Health Care, Cap Industry and Tax the Consumer, Cash for Clunkers and Stiff the Dealer, Prosecute the CIA, 10%+ Unemployment, etc. The 1st Amendment of the United States Constitution – Problematic, the 2nd Amendment of the United States Constitution – Problematic, the 10th Amendment of the United States Constitution – Highly Problematic. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock. “Hope” and “change” is what they call it. This movee is just getting started.


Mark Silva,

That wasn't me; it was somebody who signed himself "Dave B" with a space, not "DaveB" as I sign myself. I've not weighed in on this thread before.

Maybe "Dave B" isn't the only one who should slow down and read more closely.


Sorry, DB.


ornery -- of course they like Medicare -- but there are doctors who won't take patients any more because of slow/non-existent payments from, you guessed it, the US government. The system is rife with fraud and waste. And i can't remember the year it's supposed to go under, but it might be as early as 2017. So yes, the users may like it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a ton of problems.


Janet,

Stronger batteries will ease your frustration.

When trying to open a link - hover the cursor over the link, it will hightlight and underline, and then right mouse click. I'm sure I can get my three year-old great niece to show you.

Trickled On Anti John E,

I know plenty of 51 year olds that would kick your little fanny around.


Rating Drop- Don't forget Obama's close mouth on his birth.


Beth, nothing wrong with Medicare that can't be cured by canceling an aircraft carrier, or a little war, now and again.

If doctors are committing fraud, then......

Maybe they'd like to practice at the fed. prison at Terre Haute--treat George Ryan for awhile.....


When has a president taken office with so many problems? What I find disgusting is that the citizenry of this country will not give President Obama even one year before passing judgement. They turned him into a god and when they discover he is only one man, they turn against him. This is a really sad commentary on this country.


Karen,

try 1981.


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