by Mark Silva
For anyone seeking a message in the most-watched elections in the nation, there are serious mixed messages today - for both of the major political parties heading into 2010 midterm elections.
Republican victories in the two governor's races held this week - in Virginia and in New Jersey - should serve as two sobering reminders for Democrats about how deeply the nation's economic troubles have stung Americans and how far they have to go in not only repairing the economy, but also restoring public confidence.
Yet a Democratic victory in a remote but far-flung rural congressional district in upstate New York - the first there for a Democrat in more than a century - stands as a stark symbol of how divided the Republican Party is in its search for a soul.
Replay this tape: The Republican candidate in the 23rd Congressional District of New York, in the final days of the race, was calling on voters to vote for the Democrat.
And they did: Bill Owens, a lawyer and retired Air Force captain in a district that benefits from military installations, won the special election for the seat of former Rep. John McHugh, the Republican who had held the seat since 1993 and whom Obama made secretary of the Army this year.
The moderate Republican in that race, who supported the president's economic stimulus, abortion rights and gay marriage, had been rejected by some of the party's leading Republican right lights - including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who called on voters to support the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman. With 92 percent of the precincts counted, Democrat Owens had defeated Hoffman, and also the Republican, with 49 percent of the vote.
"Our challenges aren't Democratic or Republican,'' Owens said in his victory speech. "They're not liberal or conservative. They are American challenges that we will overcome with American resolve. The only way that we can create jobs and attract economic development to our communities is by bringing people of all parties together and giving everyone a seat at the table."
With those words, the triumphant Democrat in New York was acknowledging the open political veins in all of these elections: A still-sour economy played a role in the rejection of both Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and the Democratic nominee for governor in Virginia, Creigh Deeds. The Republicans, Chris Christie in New Jersey, and Bob McDonnell in Virginia, appealed to the dissatisfaction with the way things were going in their states, where Democrats were in control.
In both New Jersey and Virginia, which had supported President Barack Obama for election last year, exit polling found that independent voters who had helped secure Obama's victory in 2008 were turning in large numbers to the Republican candidates - perhaps not a reading on the president himself, who had campaigned for his party's two candidates, particularly Corzine, but a warning that his party faces serious concern about the economy among voters with the power to turn elections.
Yet in New York, the splintering of the Republican Party along conservative fault lines, with Palin and others insisting that a candidate must hold true to the core conservative principles which they share to earn the GOP's support, represents another clear warning sign for a party still finding its bearings in the aftermath of a presidential election defeat and the loss of control of Congress as well: Those swing voters probably remain more interested in voices of moderation than in either the far right or left.
"I don't believe the vast majority of voters in the 23rd District -- be they Democrats or Republicans or independents -- are looking at this as a referendum on Barack Obama or as a referendum on the Republican Party or the Democratic Party or Rush Limbaugh or any of that," Owens said. "I think the vast majority of voters in the 23rd are saying, 'We had us a great congressman in Congressman McHugh. Which of these candidates can do a better job representing me in Washington?"'
Tim Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee and the outgoing governor in Virginia, said "these races turned on local and state issues and circumstances and on the candidates in each race - and despite what some will certainly claim - the results are not predictive of the future or reflective of the national mood or political environment.
"Exit polls showed that both races turned on local issues,'' Kaine said, "And, in each state, the president's approval ratings are better today than the share of the vote he received in each state in 2008.''
Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee, was quick to find big national implications in the outcome of both governor's races.
"Americans have grown sick and tired of big government and reckless spending, and this vote is a sound rejection of the far-left policies that are hurting our nation,'' Steele said. "While the White House sent their political machine to New Jersey in full force - President Obama and Vice President Biden each campaigning in the state 3 times - even that was not enough to convince voters to ignore the realities of their harmful liberal agenda.
"I fully expect this trend to continue in the coming months,'' Steele said, "and President Obama and Democrats should have reason to fear the upcoming elections in 2010."









Comments
Mark Silva comments on what can be read from last nights election results is correct. Although it was a big night for Republicans in New Jersey and especially Virginia where they swept the three State Executive Offices that were up for election, both Parties could learn something from the results. It is obvious that Independents and Soft Republicans and Democrats are very worried about High Unemployment, High Taxes, and the current Huge Government Deficits that are going to grow even bigger with Stimulus Packages and the Obama Health Bill. If the Democrats in Washington, including the President, are not listening they are in for big trouble in next year's elections. As for the Republicans, with the exception of Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, they continue to be leaderless and at war with each other. Barbour, Chairman of the GOP Governor's Campaign Committee realizes that to win elections in different parts of the country you have to run candidates that best represent the views of those areas. The loss of the Update New York House District is a prime example of this. The GOP is going to have to open its doors to welcome back moderates which would include Independents and Soft Democrats. If they don't they will miss a golden opportunity to make positive gains. Our State of Illinois is a prime example where major mismanagement by the Democrats has pushed the State to near bankruptcy. If the GOP gets its act together it will win some Statewide offices, including the U.S. Senate, and return Illinois to being a two Party State. If they do not the same incompetent clowns that got us into this big mess will be returned to office and the majority of us out here will continue to suffer.
Posted by: Depot- Jim | November 4, 2009 9:43 AM
Dear Barack,
Please continue to campaign for Democratic candidates in future elections. The Republicans welcome all your help.
Thank you.
Posted by: Thank You | November 4, 2009 10:18 AM
Lets hope this slows down Obama's march toward Socalism and media censorship.
Posted by: Inky | November 4, 2009 10:27 AM
It's all about momentum. If people on either side see the hope for victory, they will come out and vote.
Republicans saw it and turned out. Democrats were discouraged because they don't see Obama doing what he said he would. The NY race was a joke. Hoffman doesn't even live in his district and despite that, no interest in local issues, and Palin's support, he managed to get 46% of the vote. The wake-up call here is for democrats. I can say this with conviction, because I am a democrat.
Posted by: Grandblvd03 | November 4, 2009 10:34 AM
Some nice talking points there, Mark.
In regard to NY23, the district went for Obama by 5 points. Owen won by about three to four as the Democratic candidate against what was in effect a third party candidate. Also, Owen is a moderate Dem. In fact, he is more conservative than the Republican candidate.
While local races often have little to do with national implications, there is no mistaking that the nation is against Obama's policied and that of the Democratic Congress. That has been evident since Spring when Tea Party protests drew hundreds of thousands on April 15 and then big rallies thoughout August and September. It also showed up at Townhall meetings. As much as the media and Loony Left Dems and even some regular Dems want to downplay those events, they are big and indicate much of the nation's mood. Polls also show that most Americans are not on board with Obama's policies.
But if the Republicans are such disarray as you, other media lapdogs and the Left like to portray, then how do you explain the huge GOP victories in NJ and Virginia. GOP Virginia wins were by landslide. And in NJ where Dems outnumber Republicans by 2-1, Christie must have received a lot of independent support.
Remember, while you media loons and Lefty loons like to say Republican identification is only 20 percent, 40 percent of the country IDs itself as conservative and barely 20 percent ID themselves as liberal. 36 percent say they are moderate, so it would seem lots of those moderates voted with the conservatives, huh?
Posted by: John D, still right, as usual | November 4, 2009 10:35 AM
John D,
Excellent analysis!
I consider the NY-23 race to be more of a wake-up call on that district's GOP party leaders. Whom ever the GOP leaders are who selected Scozzafava need to be put on notice immediately - NO MORE RINO CANDIDATES. Same can be said to the RNC.
Principled conservatives win elections.
Posted by: Chris | November 4, 2009 11:03 AM
Oh Johnny D and your out of touch rants. A hard line COnservative losing in a predominanly conservative republican district is the big news here and sends the message thatyour party is still losing in key polls. As for the two gubernatorial wins foryou. No big deal there at all!
The sitting president's party, whichever one it is, routinely loses the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. The exit polls in both states showed more voters approved of President Obama's job performance than not, and most people in both states said he had nothing to do with how they voted. (In fact, those who said the president was a factor were evenly split between showing support and opposition to him)
People expressed much more concern about the economy than anything else, but local issues in both states -- Democrat Creigh Deeds' inability to connect with voters in Virginia, and a desire for change in scandal-ridden New Jersey -- also played major roles.
But if anything belies the notion of a "transcendent," unified GOP, it's the victory of a Democrat in the solidly Republican 23rd Congressional District in upstate New York.
So what voice exactly has the GOP found? The moderate one that brought victory in Virginia and New Jersey, or the hard-line conservative one that flopped in New York?
Posted by: Scot S. Blakeley | November 4, 2009 11:06 AM
So this election was not a referendum of the policies of those states since they were won by a (R) candidate? Huh?
Posted by: Elle | November 4, 2009 11:20 AM
Hoffman doesn't even live in his district and despite that, no interest in local issues, and Palin's support, he managed to get 46% of the vote.
Posted by: Grandblvd03 | November 4, 2009 10:34 AM
Yes it is very interesting that a republican in a republican district since the Civil War would still manage to recieve 46% of the vote. Thanks to Palin, a republican in a republican district since the Civil War still managed to get 46% of the vote. Do you get the message? The voters resoundingly said to keep the crazies out of our district and out of our party. You can spin the whole issue anyway you like. Not living in the district? I thought these elections were a referendum on Obama? I notice on this election you mentioned the word "local" huh? You can use the ol' but the other candidates name was on the ballot........but what rock did these people live under that didn't know she had dropped out? Nobody had heard or could tell you where the 23rd was before the crazies took it on national TV.
Posted by: bill r. | November 4, 2009 11:35 AM
Let's see--Republicans win NJ by 5%, a state Obama won by 15%. A 20% turnaround.
Republicans win VA by 17%, a state Obama won by 5%. A 22% turnaround.
Even in NY 23, the Dem vote went down from 52% to 48%.
I think the Republican Party (the one the media labels "dead", "extreme", "civil warring" and "moribund") would gladly settle for 4 more years of these "mixed" results!
Posted by: Bruce | November 4, 2009 12:33 PM
Today's head-in-the-sand mantra - "local issues" - drips with irony. From the greenest of "green" (read: brain-dead liberal, tyvm, D. Mamet) bumper sticker advice - "think globally, act locally" - voters went out and voted for some change this pot-shot artist can believe in.
May not mean much to Roibert Gibbs, et al. - not so much that they'e going to admit it - but if you liked this first Tuesday in November, I suggest you come back for the one next year. It's going to be bew-tee-ful!
Posted by: Rich Almack | November 4, 2009 12:41 PM
And to give one more result The Swamp won't, in CA 10, the Democrat vote fell from a 32% Obama margin to a 10% Dem margin (53-43%)--a drop of 22%.
Please keep "mixing" these results!!!!!
Posted by: Bruce | November 4, 2009 12:44 PM
The "Campaigner" spent his time & effort pandering to the sheeple. He raised MILLIONS of dollars for Democrat candidates and thought he could simply show up and the sheeple would faint at his feet.
Can you people hear the "Wake up" bells?
Posted by: springfield | November 4, 2009 12:50 PM
Scot, I know rational, intelligent thought and analysis is foreign for you, as with most on the Left, so as usual you have no clue.
1. NJ is a solidly blue state and does not have a history for voting for the opposite party to that which is in the White House. Chrisie winning in NJ is huge, especially when one considers the probable vote fraud committed by the likes of ACORN and the SEIU.
2. NY 23 is NOT a conservative Republican district. It is historically Republican and Congressman McHugh, a Republican would have won re-election in 2010 if he had not taken up the Army Secretary position. Hoffman was a distant third until a couple of weeks ago. And the Democeraps went all out to win the seat.
3. In Virginia, the GOP didn't just win, it won huge! Landslides, all!
The so-called Leftist Revolution in this country is offically over and dead, in less than none year!!!
Posted by: John D, still right, as usual | November 4, 2009 1:10 PM
The NY race was obviously a referendum on Mr Roger's Neighborhood. The only thing the Bobby Jindal's of the world will attract is a repeat of Bush/Kerry, when the Democrats' were too focused on regrouping the past of the party instead of presenting the future. The people have spoken, this is not a referendum on political party stance, this was a referendum on whether or not you can deliver on your promises. The public would be delighted with small gov as much as a socialism gov...as long as it delivered what it promised, which rarely happen with lobbyists, corruption, lack of transparency, self-involved parties, ect.
Posted by: Joe the Electrician | November 4, 2009 1:28 PM
Slow down Repubs - lets now cover the rest of the story:
1.in WA Democrat Dow Constantine won the King County Executive's race, despite some fears that the "stealth campaign" of Republican Susan Hutchison might push her over the top.
2.In WA-Referendum 71, which sought to confer the same rights on domestic partnerships as civil marriages, was narrowly ahead in the latest returns. 3.TABOR-style tax/budget reform that was teabagger-heaven was decisively thumped-in MAINE & WA..
4.Tthere was a lot of reasons for Democrats to smile in Mayoral races. For the first time in a long time, a Democrat will lead Charlotte, North Carolina, as African-American Democrat Anthony Foxx won
5.Democrats also held onto Chapel Hill, in a race many expected to fall to the GOP. 6.Democrat Mark Mallory also survived a very competitive re-election race in Cincinnati.
Posted by: Gus | November 4, 2009 1:32 PM
"And to give one more result The Swamp won't, in CA 10, the Democrat vote fell from a 32% Obama margin to a 10% Dem margin (53-43%)--a drop of 22%."
Posted by: Bruce
Little effect that had on the race itself. Garamendi easily trounced his GOP challenger.
Posted by: Diane | November 4, 2009 2:15 PM
Here's a message for ya. The stock market is rallying the day after the election on hopes that Obamacare and the rest of Obama's and Nancy Pelosi's socialist agenda gets killed.
Posted by: Gary | November 4, 2009 2:19 PM
The New York 23rd Congressional District is interesting. Due to redistricting every ten years and the continued loss of New York Congressional Seats, the 23rd District has covered other areas of the State than it does now. The area in Northern New York that the district today includes now has elected Democrats to Congress as recently as 1990. In fact the 23rd District at one time included the Bronx (NYC) and Westchester County. The boundaries of these Districts do not remain the same for over 100 years as some of the posts have suggested. Although the District was carried by Obama in 2008 it has also elected a popular Republican Congressman John McHugh who was just appointed Secretary of the Army by the President. It may be concluded that the area that currently comprises the 23rd District tends to be Republican. And the current Civil War between Republicans and poor selection of the original candidate cost the GOP this election. Keith "Are My Blinders On" Olbermann made a comment last night before the election results were in that this District will be incorporated into two surrounding current Democratic Districts after the 2010 Census and Redistricting and probable loss of more New York Congressional Seats..
Posted by: Depot- Jim | November 4, 2009 2:54 PM
democrats, today, I not only come to u in peace, but I also bring u “hope”. “Keep hope alive”, as Jesse would say.
Here’s a lttle “audacity of hope”. The Republicans won a few spots here and there but u democrats actually gained one more congressman. AND, for those Republicans that did win, they may have the same problem that democrats always seem to have. They still have to know how to GOVERN. The term “yellow dog” does not attach itself for the Republican electorate. Have to give the moderates a little credit here also. They may not have a strong ideology, but they also do not have an emotional investment in disasters. So, despair ye not. Keep “Hope” Alive.
Posted by: Django - N Exile In/Around the 30th Parallel | November 4, 2009 3:49 PM
Facts - the main issues of voters in NJ and Virgina were the economy/jobs and health care. BO lost about 20 points in both states - that's a smackdown.
As far as NY23, a democratic canidate, with the party apperatus behind him, beats a 3rd party canidate, with no party apperatus behind him, by 3-4 points. Hoffman had no name recoginition until last couple of weeks. He also has the liberal GOP canidate still on the ticket drawing votes away. Finally, Hoffman did a lot better that the liberal GOP canidate would have done in a one-on-one race.
Hoffman will win this race next year unless NY reconfigures the district.
Posted by: Terry | November 4, 2009 8:20 PM
Two lessons:
1. If the Government doesn't stop the expensive social engineering until they have solved the financial crisis, they will not be the Government after 2010.
2. The only flaw in that is if the idealogs on the Republican side divide every race, and let the idealogs on the Democratic side win.
A Teachable Moment to be sure. But will anyone learn?
Posted by: Tom Mariner | November 5, 2009 7:12 AM
The woman was never a Republican. She really showed her true colors when she endorsed Owens. She would have made a great spy.Hoffman was a good man, honest and thoughtful and was spot on with the issues facing our nation. I only hope New York wakes up and smells the coffee, and come to realize that our man in Washington is living in a dream land. He is totally in over his head. However, I heard there is another opening for a community organizer in Chicago.
Posted by: Paul | November 5, 2009 8:38 AM
Can anyone reconcile why I keep hearing the NY 23rd district was in Republican hands since the 1800's, when Wikipedia shows it bouncing back and forth between Dem's and Republicans?
Posted by: Steve | November 5, 2009 11:43 AM