by Mark Silva
Here's another sign that something is happening among independent voters this year:
Republicans have edged ahead of Democrats by a margin of 48-44 percent in the latest measure of how registered voters say they are inclined to vote in the midterm 2010 House races.
In the so-called generic ballot test that the Gallup Poll runs, Democrats held the advantage, 50-44, in early July polling.
With voters of both parties holding strong allegiance to the generic candidate of their own party, the tipping of the balance is attributable to a big swing in sentiment among independent voters:
A 21-point shift: Earlier this year, Republicans held a one-point advantage over Democrats among independent voters surveyed. In the latest poll, Republicans hold a 22-point edge. Independents favor the generic Republican candidate for Congress in 2010 by 52-30.
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"Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown,'' Gallup reports.
The findings of this Nov. 5-8 survey follow the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where independent voters in large numbers helped elect Republican candidates for governor in states where the independents had helped electe President Barack Obama just last year.
Obama's own job approval has held at 54 percent in the latest Gallup Poll daily tracking, which measured lows of 50 percent several times in recent months.
The Nov. 5-8 update comes just after Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, which saw Republicans replace Democrats as governors of those states.
The president's advisers say the election results show that they must refocus on motivating ithe ndependent voters in 2010 who helped Obama in 2008, while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's office notes this morning thatt the shift in opinion among independents tracks the months in which the president's health-care initiatve has taken centter stage in Washington..
"The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones notes. "Though the registered-voter results reported here speak to the preferences of all eligible voters, voter turnout is crucial in determining the final outcome of midterm elections...
"Of course,'' Jones notes, "the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time.''
The survey of 894 registered voers also carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, though the 21-point shift of independent sentiment stands well outside the margin.
And voters face actual candidates, incumbents and challengers alike, when they go to the polls. Yet preference for one party over another in measures such as this represents encouraging word for one side and a challenge for the other - and in the past has served as one precursor of things to come.
"Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans seem well-positioned to win back some of their congressional losses in 2006 and 2008,'' Gallup suggests. "Independents are increasingly coming to prefer the Republican candidate for Congress, and now favor the GOP by 22 points.
""Political conditions could still shift between now and Election Day to create a more favorable environment for Democratic candidates, but a Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters has been a sign of a strong Republican showing at the polls in the coming election.''
Comments
The main reason that I would consider voting for a Republican candidate is the out of control spending in Washington!
In does not appear to me that the Democrats are willing to address the deficit or the sky rocketing national debt.
Eventually taxes will have to be increased on everyone and when that happens will inflation follow?
Our politicians need to learn that "tax and spend" policies will lead to voter's angst!
Posted by: Pat H | November 11, 2009 8:06 AM
Polls are fine and dandy, especially outside of barber shops, but the one I focus on, is the one held on election day. That's the one that really matters, just ask " Crash " McCain and " Quitter " Palin !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | November 11, 2009 8:10 AM
I weep for an America where the forces of racism and fascism, the knuckledragging Rethuglicans, are ahead in the polls and win elections.
Posted by: Brain Dead Democrat | November 11, 2009 8:31 AM
Loonie Lefties: Still say the Conservative movement is dead and irrelivant?!?!?!
*
Those fickle Independents are going to send a bunch of Dems packing in 2010.
Posted by: Bobby Mobbie | November 11, 2009 8:51 AM
This is what happens when the Replican miscreants and misdeeds go unpunished.
Now can we have the Truth C ommission we've been asking for since 07?
Some indictments on Wall St.?
Some prosecutors who know how to get convictions of "investment bankers"?
Indictments of Blackwater and Halliburton?
Indictments of Rover Gonzales Addington and others who corrupted the Justice Dept.?
O, wait. Maybe nobody did anything wrong after all.
Maybe all we've seen is just another silly turn of a business cycle.
Maybe we just Rosanadanna-ize Bushism and just say "Never mind..............."
Posted by: ornery | November 11, 2009 8:53 AM
Ornery,
The individuals that should be punished are Barney Frank and Chris Dodd for allowing Fannie and Freddie to go wild.
Also, are you the individual that walks around Hyde Park carrying the umbrella with the red flag who chants?
That would explain alot!
Posted by: Joe Jank | November 11, 2009 9:20 AM
How easily "fooled" these Independents are by the GOP Wizards of Oz and cannot seem to find their way off the yellow brick road of deceipt and deception and to their ultimate doom! As GOP does not work for the people but the insurance companies and big business!
Posted by: Angellight | November 11, 2009 9:20 AM
The huge GOP wins in NJ and VA? Has nothing to do with Obama and ObamaCare.
These poll results? Has nothing to do with Obama and ObamaCare.
10.2% unemployment? Has nothing to do with Obama or the "stimulus".
Posted by: Brain Dead Democrat | November 11, 2009 9:36 AM
Are these the same polls that said the GOP wasn't going to lose the House, Senate and presidency in the last two election cycles?
http://www.political-buzz.com/
Posted by: matt | November 11, 2009 9:39 AM
Hey ornery: Deal with the here and now. Are you going to being blabbering incessantly about Evil Bush until you are shoved in a box? The Dems have control of House/Senate/White House , but are over-reading their "mandate" and are running the country into the ditch. Even the Fat Dumb & Happy's are taking notice.
Posted by: Bobby Mobbie | November 11, 2009 9:41 AM
Americans are getting wise to Obamaism, for instance media censorship.
Posted by: Inky | November 11, 2009 10:26 AM
In off year elections the Party that controls the White House (Democrats) historically lose seats in the Congress. The question will be how many seats will the Democrats lose? And this will be decided on how the Independent Vote splits and which party is more successful in energizing their base and getting them to vote. The Democrats have come off two successful elections in 2006 and 2008 where they took control of Congress and the White House. It is probably time for an adjustment and some former Republican Districts that the Democrats now control will fall back into GOP hands. The big issues will probably be High Unemployment and Out of Control Government Spending. If the Republicans run good and electable candidates they will probably make noticeable gains. Only time will tell.
Posted by: Depot- Jim | November 11, 2009 10:30 AM
Come 2010, the country will sweep the filth that is the Far Left Demoncraps right out. Then we will take that filth and throw it on top of garbage barges and ship the filth off to Venezuela. Good riddance!
Posted by: John D, still right, as usual | November 11, 2009 10:50 AM
No that's T-----------.
A retired UC prof who overdosed on Milton Friedman.
Posted by: ornery | November 11, 2009 10:55 AM
It appears that many are getting tired of the lies, the spending and the facist takeover of huge parts of the economy. The sad part is the damage these crooks and radicals have done that our children will be paying for their entire working lives. 20% of their income to health control and 50%+ in other taxes will lead directly to the same long term unemployment rate enjoyed by such bastions of socialism as france, england and germany.
Nice tradeoff, freedom and employment for socialized medicine and government control over your very lives. Isn't diversity wonderful, bring in enough third world illiterates, used to a corrupt government throwing them scraps, and the elitest crooks make them feel right at home.
Posted by: Hans | November 11, 2009 10:58 AM
Obama may be losing his cutting edge.
To tolerant of the foot dragging by the Congress.
Too forgiving of the misconduct of Bush/Cheney & Co. that propelled him into office.
Too distracted by some of the small personalities around him.
Posted by: ornery | November 11, 2009 11:01 AM
Ornery
George W. Bush failed the country in some ways but other politicians have also failed the USA.
Barack Obama failed Hyde Park when he stated he would mediate between the Chicago Park District and the "Save the Point" wacko's.7 plus years later and we are still awaiting the fruits of his mediation efforts!
Posted by: Pat H | November 11, 2009 11:16 AM
Well put Depot Jim. Cogent thoughts without any name-calling. A rarity in the Swamp.
Posted by: Bobby Mobbie | November 11, 2009 12:34 PM
Posted by: Joe Jank | November 11, 2009 9:20 AM
;
For 6 years the Republicans had majorities in Congress and were in the White House. No Health Care reform was passed and no government regulations (don't Republicans hate that word?) on Fannie and Freddie.
Posted by: Partisan Pete | November 11, 2009 12:44 PM
As one who votes Democrat, I am sick of the corruption by Democrat office holders who dominate Illinois, Cook County and Chicago, and now the Congress where tax cheats thrive and prosper...and bankrupt the country. It is time to "throw the bums out."
Posted by: Delano | November 11, 2009 1:52 PM
Hey Inky,
Media censorship? So Fox is no longer on the air? Is the website blocked?
How are they being censored? We still hear them loud and clear - maybe it's their lies and false claims (like yours) is just not being listened too.
Obama=victory
Posted by: Gus | November 11, 2009 2:59 PM
The Dems can’t pass ObamaCare with abortion OR a public option- and reconciliation is just an empty threat, the remaining legislation would be a hollow shell-
Will they pass Cap-n-tax? With the evidence looking weak lately, Obama’s own #s tanking… and 11% unemployment? Good luck!
That leaves the only major legislation enacted -even with Democrats dominating both houses- the wholly-ineffective Porkulus. Obama has NO political cover on that one, due to the paucity of GOP collaborators- he owns it. And all it will ever stimulate is inflation… in the months leading right-up to midterms.
The Democrats look to face a bloodbath next fall, with some already predicting a 100+ seat loss.
And by 2012? People will wince at the very mention of the name “Obama”- and the GOP could take 40 states running Gilbert Gottfried- LOL
Party’s over kiddies- time to put the grown-ups back in charge...
Posted by: Reaganite Republican | November 11, 2009 3:37 PM
Now how can this be? Republicans cannot get a dog to jump a meat wagon.
It’s one thing to soak up the rhetoric of a charismatic Socialist. It’s one thing to indulge in the Koolaid. But when you ain’t got no damn job and no damn “hope” of a job, those nasty Republicans can start to look good to ya. Reminds me of a country classic.
“Change” means: to modify, vary, transform, revolutionize, adjust, amend, alter, replace, make different, etc . There is no mention of the word “good” in the definition of the word “change”.
Posted by: Django - N Exile In/Around the 30th Parallel | November 11, 2009 4:32 PM
Ornery:
If Obama could not mediate between the Chicago Park District and the "Save the Point" group both of which are favorable to him then the following is troubling.
How can he negotiate with North Korea, Iran and Israel/Palestine? None of these entities are willing to listen to us now!
The United States is in trouble internationally!
Posted by: Pat H | November 11, 2009 4:51 PM
Ornery:
If Obama could not mediate between the Chicago Park District and the "Save the Point" group both of which are favorable to him then the following is troubling.
How can he negotiate with North Korea, Iran and Israel/Palestine? None of these entities are willing to listen to us now!
The United States is in trouble internationally!
Posted by: Pat H | November 11, 2009 7:06 PM
A mediator is not the same thing as an arbitrator, or as a judge, or as a jury.
Mediators are facilitators of discussion.
That whole "save the point" as far as I can tell was between the city and ArmyCorps of Engineers, on the one hand, and a rather small group of folk who liked the limestone blocks around the Promontory Point and didn't want them replaced with the more modern style of rip rap.
Big deal, indeed.
Actually, I think some of the "save the point" people also objected to the swimming ban.
They are a law unto themselves and don't represent most Hyde Parkers I know, who really don't care what kind of rip rap goes along the shore so long as it keeps the waves from overruning the park and the drive.
So that whole tired line about "mediating" the issue is really a lot of nonsense.
The issue itself is trivial, and since mediators really by definition have no power to coerce an agreement or decide a dispute (as distinguished from arbitrators, judges, and juries), it matters not whether Obama's mediation efforts were successful or not.
In the MidEast situation, he is a player and holds a lot of cards, so I would expect him to force concessions from Israel. That's why they are so afraid of him, in case you haven't noticed.
Posted by: ornery | November 11, 2009 7:20 PM
And why does Team Obama keep lying about stimulus jobs?
Posted by: Crooks_In_DC | November 12, 2009 9:51 AM
Thank heavens!
Posted by: K. Bush | November 16, 2009 9:34 AM