by Mark Silva
Anger among independent voters about the economy and the direction the nation is taking offer Republicans a significant opportunity to reclaim power in the 2010 midterm congressional elections, according to the results of a bipartisan "Battleground Poll'' released today.
A lack of passion among President Barack Obama's core supporters, combined with an absence of confidence that all of the administration's policies and congressional spending are producing sorely needed new jobs, also pose a serious challenge to the president's party in 2010.
These are among the findings of a long-established team of Republican and Democratic pollsters, sponsored by George Washington University, which has measured the president's public job-approval rating at a low point for any first-year president in December.
"What a difference a year makes,'' said Christopher Arterton, dean of the graduate school of political management at GWU.
The president's job-approval rating has slipped to 49 percent, Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake have found. And the percentage of people who strongly disapprove of the president's performance -- 41 percent - outweighs those who strongly approve - 37 percent.
Disapproval for the job that Congress is doing has risen to 68 percent, "an all-time high'' - 77 percent among independent voters.
The problem for the president's party, the pollsters say, is that the most passionate supporters of the Democratic president appear less likely to turn out to vote in congressional elections next year. And the most angry of the independent voters - a swing-voting bloc that supported Obama in 2008 - appear heavily motivated to vote against Democrats.
"There is a potential for this being the 1994 of the angry white male,'' said Goeas, pointing to the pivotal year during the first term of President Bill Clinton when Republicans gained control of the House.
Read the rest of the story in the Swamp, and see the Battleground Poll.
Because of a struggling economy with widespread job losses, Goeas said, "the pool of angry independents is larger than what you normally see in an off-year election year. It is certainly something that is going to be problematic for the Democrats...
"I've come to the conclusion on independents.... that what really drives them is, they dislike both parties and they dislike the party in power more,'' said Goeas, a seasoned Republican pollster at The Tarrance Group, speaking at a breakfast with reporters to present the findings of the newest Battleground Poll, conducted Dec. 6-9.
The challenge for Obama's party, the pollsters say, is presenting policies during the first few months of 2010 that clearly offer promise of new jobs in an economy where unemployment has reached 10 percent.
"It's still the economy,'' Lake said. "If you ask people how they are feeling about the economy, people are very anxious...
"The one most important thing is that Democrats still are winning the vote among people who are most concerned about the economy,'' said Lake, longtime Democratic pollster at Lake Research Partners. "The No. 1 thing the Democrats have to do is prove they really have a jobs program and an economic program that is going to sell on Main Street.''
The economy and jobs rank as the most important issue that Congress should work on among 40 percent of those surveyed. The cost of health care ranks as the top issue among just 15 percent.
The survey also reveals a "disconnect'' between what most voters would like to see in health care - controlling the cost of medical care - and what they view as the president's priority: Insuring the uninsured.
"Only 28 percent said their priorities match Obama's priorities, and 64 percent said they do not,'' Goeas said. "There's a disconnect.''
Most voters surveyed - 56 percent - say the country is headed on the wrong track, with just 34 percent seeing the nation going in the right direction. That includes 87 percent of the Republicans surveyed, and 67 percent of independents surveyed, saying wrong track.
In a "generic'' contest between an unnamed Democratic candidate and Republican candidate for Congress, 42 percent of those surveyed say they would support the Republican, 40 percent the Democrat.
Most notably, among those swing-voting independents: 40 percent say they would select the Republican, 19 percent the Democrat.
The voters most likely to support Republican candidates for Congress are more likely to vote next year, according to the survey of 1,000 registered, likely voters, which carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
More than three-quarters of Republicans and independents surveyed say they are extremely likely to vote, with fewer than two-thirds of Democrats extremely likely to vote - including just 58 percent of African American voters surveyed.
The Democratic Party's problem is twofold, Lake said: "The intensity of the anger among the independents and the lack of intensity among the 'Obama surge' voters'' who helped elect the president.
While Obama remains personally popular, the poll shows, his policies have proven less so.
"You're seeing (disapproval of his job performance) driven by not the personality of the president, but the policies of the president,'' Goeas said. "Obama has done more to improve the image of the Republican Party than anything that we've been able to do for years.''
Goeas also predicts that, even as the economy improves, deficit spending will become a bigger political problem for the Democrats.
"I see something under the surface that is coming,'' he said. "We will see voters move more and more out of the focus on the economy'' to a greater "focus on spending.'' The question of deficit spending translates readily to taxes, he said, and Republicans hold a 55-28 percentage point advantage on the question of holding down taxes.
Regaining control of the Senate will prove more difficult for the Republicans, Goeas said, and the challenge in reclaiming control of the House will hinge on how many incumbents retire next year and how well the GOP recruits new candidates.
The challenge for Democrats, Lake said, is translating all of the spending underway into the promise of new jobs.
"Spending is rising in people's attention,'' she said. "If people thought a million jobs were being created by the spending, they wouldn't care about what the spending is... We haven't proven to voters that we are spending money to create jobs for them.. Any challenge for Democrats is to turn those bills into jobs bills.''
The president's party still has an opportunity to regain voter support before the midterm elections, Lake maintains.
"I think we have quite a bit of control over our destiny,'' Lake said. "We have the ability to really aggressively talk about jobs,'' the ability to get a health-care overhaul passed, the ability to address immigration reform and the ability to bring troops home from Iraq.
"We better seize control of our destiny,'' the Democrat said. "Now we need to present some plans, we need to implement them, we need to set a direction.''
mdsilva@tribune.com
Comments
very disappointed in Obama and here's why:
expansion of war in Afghanistan, to the delight of the r-cons
Lack of leadership in healthcare reform, resulting in a windfall for big insurance and pharma, to the delight of the r-cons
Wall Street executive crooks still running our economy, to the delight of the aristocrat r-cons.
This is not the change I voted for and I did not elect Leiberman as president.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 16, 2009 12:02 PM
"Most voters surveyed - 56 percent - say the country is headed on the wrong track, with just 34 percent seeing the nation going in the right direction. That includes 87 percent of the Republicans surveyed, and 67 percent of independents surveyed, saying wrong track."
Can someone please illustrate these numbers in a graph that uses Skittles so that it's easier for Don Fitzgerald to understand.
Posted by: Chris | December 16, 2009 12:50 PM
Good one, Chris!!!! EARTH TO DONNIEBOY . . .
*
I think some of the Climategate stuff has had an impact on this decline, too. As in: "Oh great, another Big Government Scam to get in my wallet."
*
Speaking of:
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Global Warming Talks Retreating Into Nothingness
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http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11903
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The Great Hoax
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http://spectator.org/archives/2009/12/16/the-great-hoax
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Posted by: Bobby Mobbie | December 16, 2009 1:28 PM
the moniker of "Independent" today, is just another refuge for the Republican-Libertarians, who want to hide their mean-spirited ideology and greed ! Don't kid yourselves, America has a long way to go, before it will forgive the Republican-Libertarians, for their foisting of the Bush&Cheney fringe on America, for 8 years, with the resultant disasters. You might want to try some make-up, that may hide your hypocrisy !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | December 16, 2009 1:31 PM
Obama is not genuine when he speaks tough to bankers in front of the cameras, then speaks softly to them in front of their faces. Obama is a hypocrite unless he does what the Brits just did--tax bankers 50% on any large bonus. Also, we didn't have the deficit problem until Bush gave tax breaks to the most wealthy Americans, and sent us into fake wars without paying for them. Who will pay the taxes once the middle class is killed off? Rx = Reinstate the taxes on the most wealthy and get out of the two highly expensive fake wars. Obama doesn't need a new 'Bipartisan Deficit Problem Commission'. That will end up squeezing more taxes out of the working middle class. Obama and Bush are the worst thing to happen to the middle class. We will all be dead after this third term of Bush. Nancy, Harry and Barry never acted like the majority party. They've just continued to act like the last bunch of wealthy bought and paid for shills. The fact that they have continued to protect all the Bush/Cheney 'indiscretions' adds to this truth.
Posted by: Vivian | December 16, 2009 1:42 PM
Historically the Out of Power Party that does not control the White House usually gains seats in an Off Year Election. That coupled with a bad economy and job market could cause major problems for the Democrats in 2010. How many seats the Republicans gain still remains to be seen. But if there are significant GOP gains Obama and the Democratic Leadership in Congress, both whom have been very partisan, will be forced to be less partisan and work together with the Republicans to pass legislation.
Posted by: Depot- Jim | December 16, 2009 2:18 PM
"We better seize control of our destiny,'' the Democrat said. "Now we need to present some plans, we need to implement them, we need to set a direction.''
Plans? What further plans could you possibly try and shove down the neck of the American people? That is what people are mad about, your plans. 2010 will be the year of the scr#wed over middle class.
Posted by: Free to Watch Whatever I Want | December 16, 2009 2:35 PM
You are getting what you voted for dum-dum
***********************************
very disappointed in Obama and here's why:
expansion of war in Afghanistan, to the delight of the r-cons
Lack of leadership in healthcare reform, resulting in a windfall for big insurance and pharma, to the delight of the r-cons
Wall Street executive crooks still running our economy, to the delight of the aristocrat r-cons.
This is not the change I voted for and I did not elect Leiberman as president.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 16, 2009 12:02 PM
***********************************
PS - blaming the Republican party or Republicans in general for the failures and lies told by Obama is rediculous.
You are dsappointed? no sheet sherlock, you've been duped by the talking head you thought was a straight guy.
You must either work for the Chicago Machine or support it! to be so dumb to believe the the hype president.
As you keep listening to the Obama Youth Squad alerts each week, you need a dose of reality.
Posted by: springfield | December 16, 2009 2:37 PM
Poor Vivian! you're just another sheeple who's been duped.
The Bush is at fault bucket you carry daily cannot hold water anymore girly.
You too are getting what you voted for - doesn't look like you're very happy with your choice. Obama flushed your hope for change down the toilet right after he cashed your check!
Posted by: springfield | December 16, 2009 2:41 PM
Obama is not genuine when he speaks tough to bankers in front of the cameras, Posted by: Vivian | December 16, 2009 1:42 PM
Posted by: Vivian | December 16, 2009 1:42 PM
Obama is not genuine ----period , just look at the 49%aproval.
Posted by: Inky | December 16, 2009 3:46 PM
Good grief, Vivian, you and Don Fitzgerald should get married. You guys would make the perfect Loony lefty couple: stupid, ignorant, clueless, moronic, out-of-touch with reality, uneducated and overall just plain nuts!
Anyway, it's not just the economy, stupid, that threatens the Dems in 2010, but everything they stand for that is unAmerican: taking over business, taking over industries, out-of-control spending, high taxation, bigger and bigger government, incompetence, and their general hatred toward everything that has made this country the best in the world.
Posted by: John D, still right, as usual | December 16, 2009 4:05 PM
Historically the Out of Power Party that does not control the White House usually gains seats in an Off Year Election.
Posted by: Depot- Jim | December 16, 2009 2:18 PM
;
Also, historically when bad legislation is passed that may harm the prosperity of America the party in power will fight tooth and nail to get rid of said law. Perhaps you can explain why the Republican Congress and Republican President Bush didn't work tirelessly on weekends and nights to stop the Dodd-Franks law that supposedly forced banks to make bad loans and not verify employment history when applying for large loans.
Posted by: Science is Fun | December 16, 2009 5:06 PM
* * * * *
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | December 16, 2009 1:31 PM
.
We get it now, Don. Anyone with whom you disagree immediately turns into one of the hated “Republican-Libertarians” responsible for putting Bush and Cheney in office. No one can tell you anything. You will never learn that Libertarians are not Republicans and did not support Bush and Cheney; that the latter two aren’t in power any more (which would make most logical people stop blaming them for everything); or that fewer and fewer people support the progressive, socialist agendum of the Obamassiah and his minions - including non-Republicans. You’re a caricature, Don - just a caricature.
Posted by: John W. | December 16, 2009 7:36 PM
springfield:
You are getting what you voted for dum-dum
***********************************
very disappointed in Obama and here's why:
expansion of war in Afghanistan, to the delight of the r-cons
Lack of leadership in healthcare reform, resulting in a windfall for big insurance and pharma, to the delight of the r-cons
Wall Street executive crooks still running our economy, to the delight of the aristocrat r-cons.
This is not the change I voted for and I did not elect Leiberman as president.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 16, 2009 12:02 PM
***********************************
PS - blaming the Republican party or Republicans in general for the failures and lies told by Obama is rediculous.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
here is some news for you:
We will ALL suffer together.
Apparently, elections mean nothing anymore; big corporate interests run America. We The People ? get real, folks
The r-cons couldn't be happier.
Why, it's as though Bu$h never left office.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 17, 2009 9:20 AM
springfield:
You are getting what you voted for dum-dum
***********************************
very disappointed in Obama and here's why:
expansion of war in Afghanistan, to the delight of the r-cons
Lack of leadership in healthcare reform, resulting in a windfall for big insurance and pharma, to the delight of the r-cons
Wall Street executive crooks still running our economy, to the delight of the aristocrat r-cons.
This is not the change I voted for and I did not elect Leiberman as president.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 16, 2009 12:02 PM
***********************************
PS - blaming the Republican party or Republicans in general for the failures and lies told by Obama is rediculous.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
here is some news for you:
We will ALL suffer together.
Apparently, elections mean nothing anymore; big corporate interests run America. We The People ? get real, folks
The r-cons couldn't be happier.
Why, it's as though Bu$h never left office.
Posted by: writerofwrongs | December 17, 2009 9:21 AM