Few job losses in November: Rate eases: The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted December 4, 2009 9:02 AM
The Swamp

by Don Lee

In a positive jobs report before the holidays, the nation's unemployment rate eased to 10 percent in November, from 10.2 percent in October, and the number of workers on payrolls was essentially unchanged last month, the Labor Department said today.

The report said employers shed a net 11,000 jobs last month, a statistically insignificant change and the best showing since December 2007. By contrast, the U.S. economy started this year with a loss of 741,000 jobs in January, but the pace of job declines has been moderating steadily.

The report caught analysts by surprise; most economists had expected job losses to fall by at least 100,000 last month. While manufacturing and construction employers continued to trim jobs, the cuts were much smaller and were largely offset by increases in business and professional services and in health and education fields.

The Labor Department report said workers last month put in 33.2 hours a week, up from a record low of 33 the prior month, suggesting that employers are restoring hours cut during the recession as well. The temporary-help sector, considered a harbinger of broader hiring, added a net 52,000 jobs in November, the fourth straight month of increase.

The latest jobs report may seem like an early Christmas gift for President Obama and members of Congress who have been under increasing pressure to do more to improve the labor market.

While the nation's economic output has resumed growing again, double-digit unemployment presents serious political challenges to the president.

On Thursday the White House held a forum to solicit ideas on job creation from business and labor leaders, and Obama is scheduled to spend today in the industrial town of Allentown, Pa., (latest unemployment 9.3 percent), where he will tour a metal plant and talk with citizens about jobs and the economy.

Still, other data underscores the job hardships for many Americans. There were 15.4 million unemployed workers last month, almost six million of them out of work for six months or longer.

The number of involuntary part-time workers - whose hours were cut or they couldn't find full-time jobs - was about 9.2 million last month. When these people, discouraged workers who dropped out of the labor force and others on the fringe of the labor market are added together, the nation's unemployment and under-employment rate last month stood at 17.2 percent last month, although that was down from 17.5 percent in October.

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Comments

Well, chucks, God didn't listen to our prayers. President Obama and his policies are working !! Dang. We, Republican-Libertarians, will just have to pray a little harder for President Obama to fail. " America First ", right into the drink, if the Bush&Cheney fringe has their prayers answered !! What great Americans they failed to become !! Here is hoping they reconsider their agenda and really put America first. Unfortunately, I do not think that is a realistic possibility, given their fanaticism, their radicalism !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


So let me get this straight - there are fewer people with jobs, the population is growing and yet the "rate of unemployment" goes down. . . . .

Pretty soon, no one will have work, and the unemployment rate will be zero.


So, we are now to believe that "less bad" is "good." Shades of "1984." NewSpeak is here. I'm sure that the 31 million people unemployed or under-employed feel just great that the unemployment rate fell 2/10th of a percent. Oh, and by the way, the word, "data," is plural and takes a plural verb.


And now cue the GOP to dim the light on this unexpected good news.


Whatever the administration does to address the problems with the economy I just hope that it does not add to the deficit!


Well before we get too excited I think quoting from the actual report might put some of this in context "Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding 52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by 117,000."
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and
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Among the marginally attached, there were 861,000 discouraged workers in November, up from 608,000 a year earlier.
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Not counting them in the numbers huh?


Bones and Don, while knowing it is fruitless to rationally explain the facts, I will try to do so anyway.
It is good news that the rate of those losing jobs is slowing. However, the reality is that as most economists said, this "good news" probably will not last. It will not last because of several factors, including Obama's policies.
First, Don, please explain how Obama's policies are helping? Was it the stimulus, in which not even $300 billion of it has been spent? What else was it exactly? What, other than the stimulus (and as we now know the job numbers created and/or saved has been grossly exaggerated) has Obama done to fix the economy?
The reasons the good news may not last, and Obama has even spoken of the possibility of a double-dip recession include the massive government spending and deficits that threaten hyper-inflation and compete with businesses and consumers for loans, so-called health care reform in which Sen. Max Baucus now says will cost $2.5 TRILLION, possible cap-and-trade that will cost businesses and consumers more money while driving more jobs overseas, and possible higher taxation and regulations on the wealthy, small businesses and corporations.
In addition, while the announced unemployment rate is 10 percent, the real unemployment rate is more like 18 percent.
So, you can reeel in the "good news" announced today, but the reality is thst the news is still not good.


What should have been the lead: "The temporary-help sector, added a net 52,000 jobs in November" I don't know what economic school this reporter went to, but temp workers are not a "harbinger of greater hiring" ESPECIALLY during the holidays. This "drop" is fueled by seasonal temporary employment - mostly in retail - which ALWAYS spikes in November and December. Nearly all of these "gains" will be gone by January 1st.


17.2% under employment rate? Merry Christmas America! I am so glad that Barry Obama declared that the recession is over several months ago. "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" This recession won't be over until Barry himself is unemployed.


As the posts get entered, I have no doubt that good news for Americans will be seen as bad news for the rabid. Why do they hate Americans?


And now cue the GOP to dim the light on this unexpected good news.

Posted by: Bones | December 4, 2009 9:52 AM


Like the dems didn't do this for the previous 8 years, when we were at about 5 or 6 %?


Dan:

The issue is that people left the labor force (about 300K in the last month). Whether this is good (e.g., one spouse gets a good job, so the other stops looking) or bad (so discouraged that even U6 doesn't pick them up) is unknown.

Erica:

Please learn basic English before correcting others. From M-W: "usage- Data leads a life of its own quite independent of datum, of which it was originally the plural. It occurs in two constructions: as a plural noun (like earnings), taking a plural verb and plural modifiers (as these, many, a few) but not cardinal numbers, and serving as a referent for plural pronouns; and as an abstract mass noun (like information), taking a singular verb and singular modifiers (as this, much, little), and being referred to by a singular pronoun. Both constructions are standard. The plural construction is more common in print, perhaps because the house style of some publishers mandates it."


I was laid off about 6 months ago. And it was definitely a tough time in my life. I hadn't been in the job market in many years - and now I found my self in a very competitive one.

One piece of advice is to have your resume professionally done. It is what gets you in the door with hiring managers. There are a number of services out there. They range in prices from $40 to $150. I went with a service that charged $49 and was very happy - so you don't have to spend and arm and leg to get this done. I do believe it was worth it to me. I am employed now and quite relieved! I wish the best for all others job hunting out there.

The service I used was ResumeSolutionsPro.com.

Best of luck you you all!


This is great news! Let's start cracking the champaigne open before the revised numbers come out in a few weeks.


Thanks Obamatrons!


I'm a Country First! Republican and there is nothing more that I would love to see than Soup lines and a race war!. Yee haw Obamabots, unite! You're toast!


* * * * *
Posted by: Bones | December 4, 2009 9:52 AM
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How can you call this ‘good news’ when you know the Labor Department cooks the numbers to produce results that the average reader won’t understand?
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The unemployment number given out by the DOL doesn’t include the approximately 2.3 million persons who are “marginally attached to the labor force” - that is, those who were not employed, wanted and were available for work, had looked for a job some time in the prior twelve months - but were not included in the DOL unemployment number “because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey …” See http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Among those “marginally attached to the labor force” are 861,000 “discouraged workers” - i.e. those persons “not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.” (Ibid.) I don’t know about you, but I think a person doesn’t become less ‘unemployed’ simply because they haven’t searched for work for four weeks or more.
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So, if one includes all of those who are in the work force but unemployed, the unemployment rate is still way over the previous 10.2 % figure, and has been there for a very long time already. If you want to believe the unemployment rate is down to 10%, go right ahead. Just be sure you know that you are consciously accepting a lie when you do.
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Remember: All accounting in Washington is Enron accounting.


Remember: All accounting in Washington is Enron accounting.

Posted by: John W. | December 4, 2009 12:29 PM
;
Ahh but here's the rub my Republican lemming friend. All throughout your heralded Bush years Dems were warning Americans that the 6% unemployment numbers were deceiving. The writing was on the wall, we warned you that the home purchase numbers could not be sustained and we were headed for a disaster. But you and your pals told us to "Shut up!" and called us Un-American and to that I say "Screw you! You lost, get over it, the Stimulus is working."


They must be counting all those new stimulus jobs that the Obama administration created. . .


Good news!

Now back to the bad news: We still have millions of unemployed, the stimulus is NOT working, unemployment benefits are running out for a lot of folks, we're even deeper into debt to China, the country that all our manufacturing jobs disappeared to, we're still fighting two bogus wars, illegal immigrants are still sneaking into the US and taking away Americans' jobs...but don't worry, our little messiah in the Oval Office will soon pull out his magic wand and all will be bliss.


The writing was on the wall, we warned you that the home purchase numbers could not be sustained and we were headed for a disaster.

Posted by: Mahn JoCain | December 4, 2009 12:58 PM

Can you cite one elected DEM that warned about the coming "disaster" from home prices? All the DEM leaders that were in any position to cool the inflating housing market stoked the flames with protection of Fannie and Freddie..

And can you tell me how you can call a 1/10 of a percent decrease in unemployment justifies $700B in stimulus? Obama rationalized the stimulus on a "we need this to avoid +8% unemployment" Now you say +10% = Stimulus working?

Are you sure ? Or are you just making this stuff up as you type?


>>

Jeff, they probably went to an "economic school" that taught them the meaning of "seasonally adjusted." The growth in temp employment was beyond what one would normally expect for a holiday season, which probably under-rates this year's numbers, as stores have not been adding temp labor in the usual numbers.

And, yes, the seasonally-adjusted temp number is a good harbinger, since companies usually add temps prior to hiring full timers.


* * * * *
Posted by: Mahn JoCain | December 4, 2009 12:58 PM
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You made your first mistake by referring to me as your “Republican lemming friend.” I’m not a Republican; I’m not a lemming; and I’m not your friend. I’m a Libertarian. And I didn’t engage in all of the deceitful and/or in-denial behavior that you ascribe to me and all my non existent buddies.
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If you’re a Democrat and want to see a Lemming, just look in the mirror. It takes absolute blind faith to swallow all the bad math the Democrat leaders have been forking up lately to justify stuff. And, furthermore, the Democrats were NOT warning anyone about the unemployment or economic numbers. The Dems in Congress were singing a chorus of “there’s nothing wrong.” If you don’t believe me, I’ll just have to refer you back to all those YouTube videos on the subject.
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You need to get over Bush and Cheney. They aren’t in charge any more, if they ever were. We had no adult leadership in Washington when Bush and Cheney were in the White house. Unfortunately, last November’s election didn't change that fact.


Less than 1/3 of 1% of the dopey Pelosi/Reid shamulus bill went towards small business.
Since that's where most people work shouldn't that have been the emphesis?
That's why people still do not have jobs! Where is the incentive to hire anyone? The only incentive businesses get are increased taxes! Guess what, when busiesses have to pay more to the government for garbage programs like Acorn they don't have money to hire YOU.


As the posts get entered, I have no doubt that good news for Americans will be seen as bad news for the rabid. Why do they hate Americans?

Posted by: bill r. | December 4, 2009 10:56 AM


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Earth to little bill - nobody hates you little bill because you're not American, besides we all feel sorry for the mentaly deranged, even those from other planets.

It makes you feel spunky to make those hate remarks on a regular basis so please carry on, just don't include yourself in the American being hated category.


Earth to little bill - nobody hates you little bill because you're not American
Posted by: springfield | December 4, 2009 2:38 PM


Well tell me something I don't know Carrot top. Anyone who disagree's with the rabid, gives up their citizenship.


Continued evidence that the recession is slowing and that a depression has all but been avoided. Economist continue to report that the economy is strengthening and moving in the right direction. Yet so many still cling to their guns and right wing party loyalties despite any evidence to the contrary! 113,000 jobs were expected to be lost whereas 11,000 were lost this last period. The Congressional Budget Committe found that the stimulus package enacted by the Obama administration indeed saved somewhere between 600,000 to 1.3 million jobs this year! Where would we be right now if the Obama administration did not act boldly and swiftly?! Not to mention we are very close to overhauling the healthcare system in this country and moving quickly toward competing with China and Europe in taking the lead on the inevitable global swicth to a green/climate economy - Obama administration policies! The man is working extremely hard and all I ever hear is the same mindless hate, backed by bare boned cherry picked facts, spewed over and over again on posts like this!
Obamahaters are alive and well!!!-jeez give it a rest bunch of back stabbers!


I don't believe these intial numbers. They have been doing this all year long, release "intial" figures in headline hoopla, then later release more accurate figures in more quiet format.

10% is very misleading when compared to previous emplyment figures. I know many who have given up, gone to part-time, or contract employment. The market is MUCH worse than advertised.


Well, I have to tell you.. After Being in the Limo business for over 30 yrs.. 90% that we interview for a job paying them 412/hr and they can work 12+ hrs a day if they want too?

Turn it down and stay UnEmployed...

I would take all these Unemployment #'s and cut them in Half, since 50% of them either Don't want to work or aren't willing to take a Job 'beneath them"

In either case, I say let them suffer..and stop this extending their UnEmployment $ and anything else done for them

To give to a Beggar, Makes a Beggar for life.


Oohh...la la. The Great Big Bad Recession is Dead? or Over? Not!!!! I'm sure someone fudged the numbers just like the global warming data. Ask the people in Michigan if the recession is over and they are working. What is their unemployment rate? 20%? A jobs summit was suppose to solve the problem? Cut taxes NOW! And here's the bigger issue FREEZE THE SPENDING DEMOCRATS! You are killing our dollar because of this deficit issue. 2010 and 2012 can't come soon enough for some REAL CHANGE!


Well FITZ, if "President Obama and his policies are working", then I guess this is his economy, correct?

Also, the number of federal employees hired this month increased.


This is all smoke and mirrors. The reason for the slight burp down is because there is a hiring of temp jobs for retail. After New Year's this will climb again. LIke the stimulus where Obama's administration claims the purchase of a lawn mower in Mississippi, created 40 new jobs! Maybe if he clicks his ruby slippers three times, this will all go away?


Other Terry at 8:06 a.m.,

Actually the jobs number will decrease a little next year as there will be 100's of 1000's of temporary census jobs created. Of course, BO will tout the stimulus as a successful program.


And what happens after the holidays every year? Am I the only that has seen this before. By March it will be near 11% and lets not forget the real unemployment rate that at this time stands at 17.2%.


The unemployment rate wouldn't be as high if people would just go out and take a crappy job till their was offered back or a better one came along.
Everyone wants to complain when they have no work but sit idle collecting that unemployment, instead of going out and working at any crappy job just to earn their keep.


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