Obama's first year: Mark Penn's take

by Peter Nicholas

Mark J. Penn, who served as the chief strategist for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, has some views about where President Barack Obama stands near the end of his first year in office.

Obama's sliding support in the polls is "a real cause for concern,'' the veteran pollster says, but the president's situation is not irreversible.

Penn is worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller, a public relations and public affairs firm. He ran polls for former President Bill Clinton in 1995 through 2000 and also ran weekly White House strategy meetings.

This is what Penn said in a conversation with the Washington Bureau:

Q: How serious is the overall drop off in the president's job approval rating? Is this a bad sign for Democrats in the upcoming mid-terms? What advice would you give to the president to restore those numbers to January 2009 levels?

Penn: "The president's numbers are a real cause for concern for himself and the party - but they certainly can be reversed at this point.

"It's only been a year and people are uneasy but not opinion is not yet set and is quite mushy. Progress on the economy and in Afghanistan are the big things that can make a difference. I don't think the president can do a lot right now with words - the public expects that the first year is going to be the foundation and by the second year they are looking for results. If he delivers them, these poll numbers will quickly reverse themselves.

"Working for six years with President Clinton certainly taught me the lesson that how a president can change public opinion over time as in 1995 he had about a 32 percent approval rating and almost doubled it by 1996 - president Clinton said he would focus on the economy like a laser, he did, and the public quickly recognized the progress.''

Q: Polling shows Obama losing support among Independent voters who were part of his winning coalition in '08. Why are these voters peeling off? What can Obama do, if anything, to rebuild the broad coalition that helped get him elected?

Penn: "Independents are by definition the swing voters in this country so when a president's ratings decline it is always going to show the greatest swing with those independents. Those voters are looking for results and they are also looking for less partisanship - a central promise he made to them. Independents are generally looking for deficit reduction, less partisanship, and a common sense approach to our problems.''

Q: The economy is obviously the top-of-mind issue for voters. Yet the White House has laid out an ambitious agenda for 2010: cap-and-trade, financial re-regulation, comprehensive immigration. Should the WH scale back the agenda and focus exclusively on jobs?

Penn: "The public is certainly being very clear that jobs is their number one priority and they are skeptical about programs and policies that don't promote jobs until unemployment starts to head down. So especially after healthcare, the president should proceed with extreme caution on anything that requires new spending until the deficit and unemployment numbers are on the way down.''

Q: Are people's concerns about the economy such that Obama must show progress on unemployment to win them over? Or can he help improve the public sentiments on this issue through rallies, town halls, speeches, TV ads, and use of his personal popularity?

Penn: "The public trusts Obama's leadership and likes him personally - but ultimately the presidency is a job and they are looking to see that the actions the president is taking improves their lives and the lives of their families. Until people start to see those results, they are not going to move much on the basis of speeches.''

Q: Given that polling shows the healthcare bill is unpopular, would Obama and Democratic leadership be better off if it fails? Or do they need to pass it to show that the months devoted to healthcare weren't wasted.

Penn: "Going backwards on healthcare would certainly not be better than going forward. If the bill is successful, then the key will be finding the 20 million people who will be getting healthcare for the first time and putting them on TV. The fruits of the healthcare bill have to be shown in real improvement in the lives of people - that is what makes the bill worthwhile.

"The president started off with a kind of exuberance and unrealistic expectations that could almost be called an Obama bubble - and now people have adjusted to more realistic views of what he can do. But what happens is that over time people form a bond with presidents who they believe deliver on their promises. He was elected to improve the economy, fix healthcare, succeed in Afghanistan, and reduce the influence of partisanship and special interests. Regardless of any poll numbers we are seeing now, they will give him more than a year to get going, and if he begins to accomplish these things in the next year, they will rally around him and bond with him.''