The Swamp: April 2010 Archives
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted April 30, 2010 5:00 PM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva and updated with video

We're talking about "five Floridas'' today -- though Chris Matthews and his associates at Hardball may want to talk about three Floridas.

But we're also talking about something much bigger: The meaning of intraparty dissent within Republican ranks, the rift that the TEA Party has opened with the more moderate, and also liberal, quarters of the GOP.

We're talking about that this evening with the host of MSNBC's political smackdown -- so we'll dispense with that element of shameless self-promotion now (see "The Swamp'' play Hardball at 5:30 pm EDT, and see the segment above).

The party which Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has left to run for Senate as an independent is eager to portray his move as a betrayal motivated by noting more than self-interest. Al Cardenas, a former Republican Party of Florida chairman, has made the party's displeasure with Crist's action known in a letter to the governor:

"When winning a party primary was not in the cards for George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and others; they didn't desert their party,'' Cardenas wrote to Crist.

"This decision is not about policy or principles,'' former Gov. Jeb Bush has publicly declared. "It is about what he believes is in his political self-interest.''

(It's well to remember that Crist, when he was running for attorney general in 2002, couldn't get a seat on Bush's chartered jet for a victory-lap Florida fly-around on the eve of the former governor's reelection, and that Crist, in turn, was a no -show in 2004 when Bush's brother, the president, campaigned for reeleciton in Florida's Panhandle.)

But this story may be about much more than personal ambition, animosity or disappointment within the ranks of Florida's Republican Party -- just as the primary contest between Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who has held the old seat of the late Barry Goldwater since the 1980s, and conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth is a test of a party's will.

Crist presents a career of moderation, tested at a time of rising conservatism. Having concluded that he could not win his own party's primary election, after a decade of three winning statewide campaigns that ended with comfortable elections, Crist has set out as "the people's candidate'' -- never mind who left whom, Crist or the party.

As for those three Floridas? (South, Central and North) It's really five (Southwest, Southeast, Central, Northwest and Northeast.)

Count on Marco Rubio, the Republican from Miami, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat from Miami, to split Southeast Florida -- each starts with a substantial ethnic base, Rubio a Cuban-American, Meek an African-American. And Broward County remains the most Democratic county in Florida.

Count on Rubio to play well along the Southwest Gulf Coast, a solidly Republican enclave, and in Northeast Florida, which was "Bush country" before there was a Bush country. But also count on Meek to rally a Democratic vote within Jacksonville.

Remember that, the further North one travels in Florida, the further South one gets, which makes Northwest Florida an uphill battle for hyphenated-Americans.

It's Central Florida where this race will play out -- with a three-way contest that could well be won with as little as 35 percent of the vote. It's Tampa Bay that has voted the way that Florida has voted in presidential elections since the 1960s -- for Democratic and Republican candidates alike. And it's Tampa Bay that Crist calls home, and where his independent candidacy was launched. If he carries his appeal to "the people'' across the I-4 corridor, he may be able to count on a substantial vote there -- justt as he is likely to benefit from the votes of Democrats who aren't quite ready, for reasons they'll have to explain to you, to vote for Meek, or Republicans who aren't ready for Rubio.

We'll leave the debate for Hardball.

That's all The Swamp has to say about that for now.

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