Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul was interviewed last night on Rachel Maddow's program. A year ago he announced his political ambitions on the same program.
by Mark Z. Barabak and Kathleen Hennessey
Republicans got a wake-up call this week.
For months, the GOP has been buoyed by the notion that 2010 will be a big year, delivering control of the House and perhaps even the Senate in November. But Tuesday's election results -- arguably the best campaign day for Democrats since President Obama's victory in 2008 -- suggest the climb back to a majority may be steeper than Republicans thought.
Democrats nominated probably their strongest Senate contender in Pennsylvania, where Rep. Joe Sestak eliminated party-switcher Arlen Specter. In Kentucky's Senate contest, Democrats drew their preferred opponent in state "tea party" founder Rand Paul (though he could be underestimated in the fall as he was this spring.)
Probably the most significant outcome, however, was the Democratic victory in a special House race in rural Pennsylvania. The district -- anti-abortion, gun-loving, wary of Washington -- is precisely the sort of place Republicans need to prevail to win back the House.
But Democrat Mark Critz, running on a parochial platform of job creation, easily defeated GOP businessman Tim Burns, who sought to turn the contest into a referendum on Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).
Republicans should have won the race hands-down. Obama lost the district in 2008 and his popularity has plummeted since; Burns admitted he hadn't even prepared a concession speech. Instead, the defeat extended the GOP's losing streak in special House contests to four this election cycle and 11 going back to 2008 -- making it that much more difficult to capture the 40 seats the party needs to win the House.
"This should not have been rocket science," said nonpartisan election handicapper Charles Cook. "How can you win 40 if you can't even focus on one and get it done?"
While too much can be made of a single race -- especially in an off year, when local politics and personalities tend to matter more -- the defeat in Pennsylvania coal country was almost on a par with Democrats' January loss of Edward M. Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts.
"The Republicans test-drove their strategy for November and crashed," said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "They believe in using the boogeyman of President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi to rally their voters, and that failed."
Republican leaders were stoic Wednesday, if humbled. "Last night is evidence of the fact that we have a lot of work to do and we can't get ahead of ourselves," Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 House Republican, told reporters at a Washington news conference.
Privately, GOP strategists and other party insiders engaged in a now-familiar ritual, lamenting their financial disadvantage -- the Democrats have $70 million cash on hand to Republicans' $48 million -- and carping at the operations of the Republican National Committee and its congressional campaign under the erratic leadership of Chairman Michael Steele. His free-spending ways, on private jets, limousines and the like, have caused nearly as much consternation as his repeated verbal gaffes.
The party will likely break its House losing streak Saturday, when the GOP is expected to prevail in a Hawaii special election -- but only because two Democrats will split the vote against a lone Republican. The seat will likely revert to Democrats in November, when just one party candidate faces the Republican.
Inevitably, the GOP will trumpet the victory, noting Republicans stole a seat in Obama's home state. But the significance pales next to the loss in Pennsylvania.
Kentucky presents a different test for Republicans and its tea party allies.
Paul, a Bowling Green eye doctor, trounced the GOP establishment's candidate, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, by delivering a message in perfect pitch with the angriest wing of the party: those who believe Washington is the source of just about everything that plagues the country. The question now is how that message will play with a wider general election audience.
Paul promised to oppose all earmarks, the funds lawmakers seek for pet projects back home. The pledge drew big cheers among the tea party faithful; but others, like Jeremy Chesser, aren't so sure the sacrifice is a good idea in a state as needy as Kentucky.
"He swears off of the earmarks, but you don't hear that from the senators in Illinois, or Indiana or Tennessee," said Chesser, an independent-leaning Republican in rural Bartstown, Ky. "So where does that leave us?"
The GOP's difficulties should not be overstated.
History and most of the evidence -- high unemployment, dissatisfaction with the Democratic-run Congress, middling presidential poll numbers -- suggest that November will bring significant GOP gains after two miserable campaign cycles. A pickup of at least 20 House seats and about half a dozen or so in the Senate seems practically a given. (The party needs 10 Senate seats to claim the majority.)
But Tuesday's results suggest that if the GOP is to take back either house, they will have to do more than sit back and wait.
"There's no mystical tide that's going to sweep Republicans in," said Jack Pitney, a political analyst at Claremont McKenna College and former GOP strategist. "The outcome, as always, is going to come down to candidate quality, issue positions and the kind of campaign that people run."
Comments
America is tired of the snake-oil the Republican-Libertarian-T.Baggers have been peddling for, at least, 9 years, now. We know where their loyalties lie, with the Bankers and Bandits in our Boardrooms. That cabal of money-grubbers, from Neut Getrich, Sarah " Show Me the Money " Palin to Rush the Flush, it is all about lining their pockets, stuffing their bank accounts, all the while, sowing seeds of discontent across our country, at a profit, an outrageous profit !! Listen to that cabal again, vote for their meaningless slogans, and we will not have another Great Recession, like the one the Bush&Cheney left us, but a Great Depression, with all of our Hope gone !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | May 20, 2010 9:36 AM
How the propaganda ministers spin the results. There are a string of primaries coming up and we will see who is in trouble. I just want all of the incumbents to lose.
Posted by: CrooksInDC | May 20, 2010 9:36 AM
If the Republicans think they are going to make major gains in November they need to get their act together. The GOP needs to realize that the angry public out there is not in love with the Republican Party, but they are Mad as Hell at the Democratic Party and their Leadership in Washington who have tried to cram their Left Wing and sometimes Socialist Agenda down the country's throats. The major issue this Fall is not Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, but Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, and the Economy. As Democratic strategist James Carville once said "It is the Economy Stupid." And America has always voted hits pocketbook.
Rand Paul's interview on the Rachel Maddow Show last night was just unbelievable when he questioned the constitutionality of the one the provisions of the 1964 Civil Rights Bill. And the liberal Maddow was fair and gave him three chances to correct his answer. But Paul continued to dig himself deeper into a hole. Paul should realize that this is 2010 and the Civil Rights Bill of 1964 corrected many of America's ills and wrongs of the past against African American citizens. Instead he started to debate that bill like he was in a Law School or Political Science Class. Unless Paul corrects himself today he may have turned the Kentucky Senate Race from a Republican hold to tossup status.
I do not know if we are making too much out of the Pennsylvania 12th District Congressional race where Democrat Mark Critz ran against the Washington Establishment and many of Obama's programs. But if the Republicans are going to regain control of Congress they are going to have to win a majority of Districts currently held by the Democrats like this one.
I still believe a majority of the voters are made at Washington and that means Incumbents whether they be Republicans or Democrats. And the reason why the Republicans will probably make substantial gains this November is local issues ("all politics are local") and that there are more Democrats than Republicans up for reelection Unless the Republicans stop counting their chickens before they hatch and get their heads out of the sand, their expected gains in November will not be as many as they think they will be. The GOP needs to wake up and smell the coffee if they are going to make substantial gains in governorships, state legislatures and seats in congress. The Democrats are in a real vulnerable position in 2010 but the Republicans do not seem to know how to take advantage of this.
Posted by: Depot- Jim | May 20, 2010 9:59 AM
"Republicans should have won this race hands down." What a crock. The district is two-thirds Democrat and has 150,000 union members who are robots when it comes to voting. That's as likely as Republicans winning a seat in Chicago's Democrat districts. Plus,
the Democrat ran on an anti-Obama platform, against Obama care, against bailouts, against deficit spending, and PRO-LIFE! Wishful thinking by Democrats...and their cheerleaders in the media.
Posted by: McKinley | May 20, 2010 10:24 AM
The driving force behind political change today is Obama Derangement Syndrome. And Health insurance companies will not pay for treatment. .........
http://thefiresidepost.com/2010/05/20/obama-derangement-syndrome-leads-to-politicians-anonymou/
Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | May 20, 2010 10:52 AM
And, the Democrat candidate ran against the Obama, Pelosi, Reid agenda. He did not want Obama to campaign for him, he said he would a voted against Obamacare, the said he is pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment. He ran as a conservative Republican!! Look at the campaign funding where he outspent his Republican rival 5 to 1. How is this a big loss for the Republicans? Remember, this is Rahm's strategy - fool the voters by claiming to be something your are not, by not embracing the failed Obama policies, then if elected, revert to same old Democrat tactics.
The recent elections were a BIG loss for OBAMA! He is 0 for four in his endorsements for election/reelection, with the most recent loser, Arlen Spector. That should be your story line! Obama campaigning for a candidate is the kiss of death, that candidate will lose. Obama is toxic to candidates running for office!!!
Posted by: slobber | May 20, 2010 11:55 AM
The teabaggers are the best thing that could ever happen to the Dems. Go ahead and talk about repealing the Civil Rights Act, the ADA, and while you're at it, add Social Security, Medicade,etc. Keep it up, and oh, pass the popcorn. I don't want to miss this show.
Posted by: gibster | May 20, 2010 1:08 PM
Rand Paul is a racist bigot who has no clue what he's talking about and almost zero support from the dysfunctional national republican party. Big difference in winning a primary and winning in the general election. This loser will go down the toilet in November.
How's 'bug eyes' MCConnell these days??
Posted by: Doug R. | May 20, 2010 1:30 PM
Rand Paul really started his campaign with a bang on the Rachel Maddow Show last night. Why he started to debate the Civil Rights Bill of 1964 in an interview during the start of a political campaign in 2010 I do not know? Such debates should be left for Law School and Political Science class and not political campaigns. I saw the entire interview and in all fairness to Paul he Never said that he was against the Civil Right Act of 1964 and called for its repeal as some Left Wing Posts have stated on blogs today. I suggest that those that have started the typical name calling see the entire interview before you go on your rants. He debated one section of a 10 section act concerning private businesses. Paul said that he was in favor of the rest of the act including those parts that outlawed state backed segregation and discrimination. He also added during the interview that if he was grown up at the time he would have marched with Dr Martin Luther King in support of civil rights. Paul also stated that his concerns were decided by the Supreme Court and he supported their decision.
Rand Paul really made a big mess of his campaign last night and why did he start a debate of a law that should be left to the class room no one really knows? But there is one thing for sure is that this big blunder has turned the Kentucky Senate Race from a probable Republican hold to a tossup. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months up to the election. Time will tell!
Posted by: depot jim | May 20, 2010 2:43 PM
Eric whassisname, the Minority Whup, was on CSpan this morning.
Slow news day.....
Anyway, ... he did not look like a happy camper....
Maybe the tea leaves are not reading so well re: November.......
Posted by: ornery | May 20, 2010 6:45 PM
"Some Democrats on the campaign trail have hit upon a winning campaign tactic: Run against President Obama and his agenda -- especially the health care overhaul.
Democrat Mark Critz railed against the Obama administration's health care reforms while campaigning in his western Pennsylvania district -- and was easily elected to the House."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/may/21/anti-obama-tack-buoys-some-democrats/
Of course, the Trib or its article writers would never discuss this! We will see what happens in November and I'm am sure if the Dems are swept out of power, the Swamp will have "Republicans lose again."
Posted by: slobber | May 21, 2010 12:35 PM
I see that it did not take long for a loony liberal to pull the race card. The Liberals hear what they want and the mainstream media reports what the Liberals need to hear. No matter what he really said or meant the Liberals never let a lie in the way of reporting a story. I posted last week that Democratic candidates were running using anti-Obama tactics and it seems to work in the primaries. Well at least it works in a heavily Democratic and union districts. There are a string of primaries coming up let's see how many incumbents loose I hope all of them do.
Posted by: CrooksInDC | May 21, 2010 5:42 PM