by Jim Tankersley
To paraphrase a favorite Obama administration phrase, primary elections have consequences. In the case of some key Senate races where Republican and Democratic voters will go to the polls on Tuesday, the biggest consequence could be which party starts the general election in better position.
Put another way; In several primary races - including Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania -- polls show one candidate has a clear advantage over party rivals when it comes to winning in November.
Often, primary voters must choose between November "electability" and party purity. But this year, that's not always the case, as the incomparable stats/politics guru Nate Silver explains at fivethirtyeight.com.
As Silver notes from polling analysis,Democrats in Arkansas and Pennsylvania appear to face a choice between a better-known incumbent and a more liberal- -and, it appears, more electable - challenger. (He adds that candidates running farther to the left appear to have a general election edge in upcoming Democratic Senate primaries in Colorado and North Carolina.)
Republicans, Silver says, face the more classic dilemma: The more conservative candidate in Kentucky fares worse in general-election matchups than the establishment, more moderate primary candidate. (We'd also note that in each of those three states, any Republican starts as the favorite in the general election, but to varying degrees.)
Silver tracks similar patterns in competitive primaries nationwide. He concludes that, even in a year when the GOP appears strongly positioned to gain lots of ground in Congress, Republicans "could conceivably cost themselves 1-3 Senate seats, and 5-10 House seats, by nominating suboptimal (electorally speaking) candidates. By contrast, the effects of Democratic primary challenges are more ambiguous, and may be as much of a help to the party as a hindrance."
He also delves into the makeup of the parties' respective primary electorates to suggest that the GOP may be in danger of making his doomsday prediction come true.
Silver's politics tilt left, but his readers can attest that his statistical analysis is unbiased - and very sharp. His full piece is here.
Comments
Go Teabaggers!
Posted by: The 2010 Democratic Party | May 17, 2010 3:05 PM
I'm enoying watching the Repugs already dancing in the end zone and pouring champaign over themselves about the upcoming elections this fall, because they've been shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly (Wall Street Reform, Arizona Immigration Law) the last few months.
The Repugs will win back a few seat this fall, which is really no big deal. The minority party always picks up some seats after a Pres election, but in the end they'll still be where they deserve to be - in the minority in both the House and the Senate.
Posted by: Equal Time | May 17, 2010 3:20 PM
GOP Generational Theft by Deception Evil Doers Speak! It's working! It's working! Just say he's failing! Just say he's YOU LIE! YOU LIE! It's working! Caged! Provisional Ballot Voters at Best! Firing of the 9 U.S. Attorney's is finally working! It's working! No Votes for them! Just us! Too much Koolaid! It's the Payback! It's the GOP TEA PARTY GETBACK! He's YOU LIE! He's YOU LIE! It's working! It's working! Our just do nothing worked! Our just stall baby stall! Is working! Sarah! Sarah! Her hips, her lips, her thighs still got Republicans just so HYPNOTIZED! She's the REAL DEAL! She's the EVE in Electronic Employment Verification! Mitt is the REAL ID! It's working! It's working! It's working! Just say he's failing! Just say americans are failing! It's the TEA PARTY way! Too Much KOOLAID in America! Drink the TEA! Just not YOU LIE! YOU LIE! Koolaid! Vote for Republicans, so what if we stole 5.7 Trillion Dollars and your dignity! So what! So what! He's YOU LIE! He's Trespassing in the GOP First Degree! YOU LIE! YOU LIE!
Posted by: Roger Morris | May 17, 2010 4:47 PM
I enjoy Jim Tankersley try and puff up Nate Silver--Daily Kos columnist, Democrat, Obama voter--as their "nonpartisan" expert on elections.
Silver's exactly the type of person the Swamp writers would turn to for guidance--someone not just a Democrat, but on the extreme LEFT Daily Kos wing of that party.
Posted by: Equal time | May 17, 2010 6:01 PM
Obama's support of Benedict Specter will probably get Specter to retirement, which is good. Let's have the fall election over a clear line - big gov't vs small gov't.
Posted by: Terry | May 17, 2010 7:15 PM
Champaign is in Illinois. Champagne comes in bottles.
Posted by: DaveB | May 18, 2010 6:35 AM
Throw them all out with the dirty dishwater!.
Posted by: Paul | May 18, 2010 9:25 AM
Blanche Lincoln is being challenged by Bill Halter. Halter is the candidate of the uber leftwing MoveOn.org - you know, the one funded by the Progressive, billionaire, George Soros (oh, and convicted felon). The last time I was in Arkansas, the uber leftist, Progressives were not mainstream, so I don't see how Halter can be considered a better general election choice!
But then, Jim IS relying on the work of Nate Silver, the Daily Kos guy. Sure, we can believe what Nate developed is correct and unbiased. Silver's conclusion: Dems will prevail and Reps are full of blundering conservatives.
Daily Kos says what? Heck, the National Enquirer is a more valid source than the DK!
Posted by: slobber | May 18, 2010 1:35 PM