Key Races Take Shape This Super Tuesday

by Mike Memoli

In the busiest date yet on the mid-term calendar, voters in a dozen states head to the polls today for primary and runoff elections, some of which will be key in determining the state of play this November.

In California, Republicans are choosing nominees in the Senate and gubernatorial races -- both considered toss-ups by many national handicappers. Two former CEOs -- Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman -- are favored in the respective contests. The Los Angeles Times reports on the last-minute electioneering:

As the last of tens of millions of dollars in television spots flew over the airwaves, the frontrunners in the Republican races for governor and senator signaled their confidence by tossing general election gibes at their prospective Democratic opponents. Their challengers, clawing for advantage to the end, also traversed the state in search of votes.

Also of note: the Times chose not to endorse in either the Republican or the Democratic contests. It's particularly noteworthy since the races on the Democratic side are non-events. Of incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer: "we're no fans," the editorial board wrote. "She displays less intellectual firepower or leadership than she could." Of gubernatorial hopeful Jerry Brown, who held the job for two terms from 1975-1983, the Times wants to see "a rational and achievable policy plan for California's future to pair with his interesting, often inspiring, but somewhat mixed record of achievement. Unless he does so, he's one more celebrity candidate."

Other races to watch include the battle among Nevada Republicans over who will face embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in November. Sue Lowden, who had been considered the frontrunner, has stumbled in the closing weeks as she struggled to explain her comments about bartering as a means of paying for health care. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R), fueled by support from tea party activists, has made a late surge in the polls. Democrats who had expressed concern over Reid's chances now feel more optimistic given nature of the Republican fight.

Also in the Silver State, Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons faces likely defeat in his bid for renomination, as he trails former state Attorney General Brian Sandoval in public polling. Already in 2010 three U.S. senators have lost their re-election bids, but Gibbons would be the first governor to do so this year. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's 2009 general election defeat was something of a warning sign for all incumbents, but Gibbons would be the first to lose in a primary since Sarah Palin defeated then-Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2006.

The key runoff election today is in Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) faces the possibility of being the third incumbent senator to lose a bid for renomination. She led in the initial voting by just three points over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. National labor unions and liberal activists have made Lincoln a target for her occasional votes against her party. Conventional wisdom holds that Lincoln is in real trouble, but with turnout expected to be very low neither side is making predictions. Republicans have already nominated U.S. Rep. John Boozman.

Finally we point to two more gubernatorial primaries in states that always attract attention because of their importance to the presidential nominating process: Iowa and South Carolina. In the Hawkeye State Terry Branstad, like California's Brown, is a former governor looking to reclaim his old job. He's the favorite in that Republican race, endorsed by 2012 hopefuls Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.

A more interesting contest has developed in South Carolina. State Rep. Nikki Haley broke from an deep Republican pack that includes the lieutenant governor, state attorney general and a sitting Congressman. But her frontrunner status soon led to separate allegations -- yet to be proven -- of marital infidelity. As in Iowa, Romney and Palin have backed the same candidate.

Super Tuesday Votes
*Arkansas (Senate primary runoff): Polls close at 8:30 p.m.
*California: Polls close at 11 p.m.
*Georgia (Congressional special election runoff): Polls close at 7 p.m.
*Iowa: Polls close at 10 p.m.
*Maine: Polls close at 8 p.m.
*Montana: Polls close at 10 p.m.
*Nevada: Polls close at 10 p.m.
*New Jersey: Polls close at 8 p.m.
*North Dakota: All polling places close by 9 p.m.
*South Carolina: Polls close at 7 p.m.
*South Dakota: All polling places close by 9 p.m.
*Virginia: Polls close at 7 p.m.
all times Eastern

Photo: Sharron Angle, Republican Senate candidate in Nevada. Credit: Isaac Brekken / Associated Press