Poll watch: Dems find glimmers of hope

by Mike Memoli

In an effort to highlight what the White House sees as one of its major success stories, President Obama is visiting two Michigan auto plants that he says are thriving in part because of significant government assistance.

"This was a hard decision. I didn't want government to get into the auto business," Obama said at a Chrysler plant in Detroit. "And the politics of it weren't good. ... But I believe that if each of us were willing to work and sacrifice in the short term, ... it could mark a new beginning for a great American industry."

The president was warmly welcomed by an audience of about 1,500 employees at the plant, which produces the Grand Cherokee. A second shift just began work there on July 19, creating 1,100 new jobs, the White House said. A year ago, Obama said, the future of the plant was "very much in doubt."

"Today this industry is growing stronger. It's creating new jobs," he said. "You are proving the naysayers wrong. All of them."

Photo Credit: AP / Carlos Osorio

Peter Nicholas and Janet Hook write today:

Through two terms, Reagan eluded much of the responsibility for recession and foreign policy scandal. In less than two years, Obama has become ensnared in blame.

Hoping to better insulate Obama, White House aides have sought to give other Cabinet officials a higher profile and additional public exposure. They are also crafting new ways to explain the president's policies to a skeptical public.

But Obama remains the colossus of his administration -- to a point where trouble anywhere in the world is often his to solve.

The president is on the hook to repair the Gulf Coast oil spill disaster, stabilize Afghanistan, help fix Greece's ailing economy and do right by Shirley Sherrod, the Agriculture Department official fired as a result of a misleading fragment of videotape.

What's not sticking to Obama is a legislative track record that his recent predecessors might envy. Political dividends from passage of a healthcare overhaul or a financial regulatory bill have been fleeting.

You can read the full piece here.

by James Oliphant

Rep. Charles Rangel of New York was charged Thursday with 13 counts of violating House ethics rules, placing the Democrat's storied, 40-year political career in jeopardy.

A House ethics panel outlined the alleged violations in a meeting that set the stage for a full-blown proceeding that could take place as early as September.

The charges stem from Rangel's alleged use of rent-controlled apartments for campaign purposes, his alleged solicitation of corporate donors for a public-policy center at a New York City college using office letterhead, the alleged failure to disclose $600,000 in income on financial-disclosure statements and the alleged failure to disclose income and pay taxes on a Caribbean rental property.

Until the moment the committee convened Thursday afternoon, talk was filtering through congressional corridors that Rangel's attorneys had struck a deal to avoid the hearing.

But Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the subcommittee that will try Rangel, suggested the time for a settlement had passed, saying Rangel, a Democrat from Harlem, had been given an "opportunity to negotiate a settlement in the investigation phase."

"The American people need to hear the truth," McCaul said.

You can read more on the Rangel news here.

Mark Matthews, part our Washington bureau, updates on the story he wrote in today's Orlando Sentinel on a video Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) sent his constituents -- at their expense -- that was essentially a highlights film of his time in Congress so far.

Today one of his potential Republican opponents, state Rep. Kurt Kelly, called for an investigation of his billing taxpayers $73,000 for the mailer. He also wants Grayson to reimburse the Treasury from campaign funds.

"If Alan Grayson wants to record a liberal mix tape so he can get his own show on MSNBC after I beat him this fall, he's certainly entitled to do so, but not with our taxpayer dollars," said Kelly in a statement.

You can catch up on the story here.

by Mike Memoli

In a wide-ranging interview on "The View," President Obama said he has Jay-Z on his iPod, doesn't tweet, and is not invited to Chelsea Clinton's wedding. He knows that Lindsay Lohan is in jail, but confessed not to know who Snooki is (though he used her as a punch line at the White House Correspondents Dinner in May).

But for all the fluff, Obama also covered the major issues of his presidency thus far, including the economy, Afghanistan and health care. While acknowledging he's hit some rough patches, the president professed to taking a "long view" on the decisions he's made so far. He also bemoaned a political culture he ran on the promise of changing.

"I volunteered for this job, and politics is not bean bag. Politics is a contact sport and you expect people going at you," he said. "The one thing that does frustrate me sometimes is the sense that we shouldn't be campaigning all the time. There is a time to campaign and then there is a time to govern. What we've tried to do over the last 20 months is to govern."

Obama also criticized a media culture that focuses on conflict but not compromise. But critics argue that he has used a campaign-style approach to governing that has exacerbated the problem. For instance, he used a recent town hall meeting to go after House Minority Leader John Boehner for, as he described it, comparing the economic collapse to an ant.

And his comment about campaigning was of note given that immediately after the taping, he traveled elsewhere in New York for two major fundraisers.

by Tom Hamburger

Former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, now leading the charge for Republican efforts to win control of state legislatures, offered an upbeat assessment to reporters this morning, telling those at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast that Democrats are not likely not take control of any additional state legislative chambers in the country and that Republicans will pick up four chambers with 12 additional Democrat controlled chambers "solidly in play."

Redistricting occurs every decade, but this year may be particularly important because the country is trending Republican and winning this year could provide a lasting Republican edge as states redraw their federal congressional districts to match new census numbers.

Gillespie chairs the Republican State Leadership Committee, which backs GOP state legislative candidates. He says the group is on track to double the $22 million raised in the last redistricting effort.

He spoke to reporters along with former Rep. Tom Reynolds, the Committee's vice chair, who could not contain his enthusiasm about this year's prospects of retaking legislative chambers and governor's mansions.

"Whoever has the pen in hand has the opportunity," he said.

by Mike Memoli

The last time President Obama came to the Garden State, it was for his third campaign visit for Jon Corzine's embattled re-election effort. Today after he bounded down the steps of Air Force One at Newark Airport, he was greeted by the man he argued was unfit for the governor's office -- Republican Chris Christie.

The two men chatted for some time -- nearly two minutes -- on the tarmac. Christie seemed to get a rise out of the visiting president, who offered a few back slaps during the exchange. Perhaps Christie realized he had to make that moment count, because when Obama hosted local leaders and small business owners later in Edison, Christie was noticeably absent.

"We're not passing it up," Christie spokeswoman Maria Comella said when asked why the governor didn't join Obama at Tastee Sub Shop. "We weren't invited."

Deputy White House press secretary Bill Burton confirmed that Christie was not on the guest list for the intimate venue. As the president himself entered the shop, he said he had a fondness for mayors, though.

"They don't have a lot of time for political back and forth," Obama said.

Photo Credit: AP / Rich Schultz

by Mike Memoli

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) says she is filing an expedited appeal to today's court ruling barring certain provisions of Senate Bill 1070, saying she's willing to take the fight over state's controversial illegal immigration law to the Supreme Court if necessary.

"This fight is far from over. In fact, it is just the beginning, and at the end of what is certain to be a long legal struggle, Arizona will prevail in its right to protect our citizens," she said in a statement.

Randy Pullen, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, predicted the case would ultimately end up at the Supreme Corut.

"The federal government's argument that SB 1070 would have placed and undue burden on them is as absurd as it is a complete dismissal of the tremendous burden placed on Arizona by the federal government not doing its job," he said.

You can read Brewer's full statement after the jump.

Photo Credit: AP / Ross D. Franklin

by Mike Memoli

A federal court in Arizona has blocked the most controversial provisions of the state's anti-illegal immigration bill from becoming law.

10-1413-87.pdf

Judge Susan R. Bolton, appointed by President Clinton in 2000, said in her ruling that "the United States is likely to suffer irreparable harm" if it did not block provisions requiring state law enforcement officials to check the legal status of any individual suspected of being an illegal immigrant.

"The Supreme Court has consistently ruled that the federal government has broad and exclusive authority to regulate immigration, supported by both enumerated and implied constitutional powers," the ruling states.

Nicholas Riccardi, reporting from Phoenix for the L.A. Times:

Bolton's ruling found that the Obama administration was likely to prevail at trial in proving the two provisions, and two other ones in the sweeping law, were an unconstitutional attempt by Arizona to regulate immigration. Arizona is expected to immediately appeal the decision to the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco.

Tribune Supreme Court reporter David Savage says that if the state were to appeal, the 9th Circuit would likely defer to the lower court's ruling.

President Obama, traveling to New Jersey when the ruling was issued, was not expected to address the matter. He was due to hold a roundtable with small business owners at a sub shop in Edison.

by Mike Memoli

We will indeed have an all-women gubernatorial matchup in Oklahoma this November, as Rep. Mary Fallin (R) and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) won their respective primaries in the Sooner State Tuesday. As noted yesterday, it's the second such matchup this year, and just the fourth ever.

Fallin's win is noteworthy for another reason. It ends a streak of losses this year for sitting members of Congress running for governor. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC) all failed in their respective bids, with angst toward Washington a factor in their state races.

Of course, Fallin has only been in Congress for two terms. Before that, she was Askins' predecessor as the state's lieutenant governor. In the House, she replaced Rep. Ernie Istook (R), who lost to incumbent Brad Henry in the 2006 gubernatorial race. Henry is now term-limited.

Looking ahead, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (R) should easily win his primary on August 3, but Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) is locked in a tight primary battle for the nomination in Michigan the same day. Days later, Rep. Zach Wamp (R) will also be on the ballot in an increasingly bitter GOP race in Tennessee.

Photo Credit: AP / Swamp Composite

by Mike Memoli

President Obama today goes to a sub shop in New Jersey and a daytime talk show set in New York as he looks to sell his message on the economy. Now, we can add Internet pitchman to the ubiquitous president's resume.

Laptop ready, Obama stars in a White House video on the major health site WebMD to explain to visitors how the administration's HealthCare.gov page, launched at the start of this month, works.

It's just the latest in a series of digital media pushes the administration has done months after the health care reform law was signed to prop up the legislation. Earlier this month, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius participated in an online town hall at WebMD, in addition to regular web chats at WhiteHouse.gov.

"The video comes as the Affordable Care Act is growing increasingly popular with the American people who are beginning to see the benefits of health reform," the White House advertised in announcing the video. A CNN poll last week found that 44 percent of Americans approved of Obama's handling of health care, while 54 percent disapproved.

Turns out the ad was just a teaser.

After suspending his campaign and then dipping his toe back in the water, former Rep. Rob Simmons is diving back fully into the Connecticut Senate race. Our partners at The Courant report:

Simmons, the former congressman and intermittent candidate for U.S. Senate, stated unequivocally at the start of a debate Tuesday night that he is in the race -- even though he curtailed his campaign and released his staff shortly after losing the GOP endorsement to Linda McMahon at a party nominating convention in May.

"I am running for the United States Senate because I love my country and I don't like where it's going,'' Simmons told an audience at Trinity College. "I don't like the bailouts, I don't like the unemployment, I don't like the rising deficits, I don't like the foreclosures and in particular, I don't like the ... spending that threatens to bankrupt out country."

Simmons' move comes just two weeks before the state's primary. Linda McMahon had won the endorsement of the Connecticut GOP at the convention and was pressing ahead with a general election strategy after Simmons seemed to drop out.

by Mike Memoli

Oklahomans head to the polls today for the first of three potential votes to choose a new governor. And for the second time this year, we could have a historic outcome -- two female nominees representing the two major parties.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Fallin, a former lieutenant governor, is considered the frontrunner in a multi-candidate field. Democrats are choosing between current Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Should Askins emerge as the Democratic choice, the state would be guaranteed to elect its first woman governor in November.

It would also be just the fourth time ever that two women would compete in a gubernatorial race. Earlier this year New Mexico voters nominated Susana Martinez (R) and Diane Denish (D).

Currently six women serve as governors. Three are term-limited this fall and likely to be replaced by men: Jodi Rell (R-CT), Linda LIngle (R-HI) and Jennifer Granholm (D-MI). Arizona's Jan Brewer (R), is seeking a full term this November, after succeeding Janet Napolitano (D) in 2009. But as many as 12 additional states could choose new women governors this November.

Photo Credit: Sue Ogrocki / AP

by Mike Memoli

A new poll in Missouri crystallizes something we've written about before -- how President Obama's sagging poll ratings will affect Democratic candidates this November.

Mason Dixon finds that in Missouri, Obama's job approval rating is just 34 percent, and 27 percent among independent voters. In a battleground state, even one that Obama lost in 2008, that's a remarkable figure and troublesome for someone like Robin Carnahan, running in the open-seat Senate race. The same poll finds her trailing Rep. Roy Blunt by six points.

Christi Parsons and Peter Nicholas had noted that while Obama would be active raising money and campaigning for Democrats, White House and party strategists would likely keep him out of areas where his numbers render him more of a liability than an asset. Obama did just appear with Carnahan, but with numbers like this, he likely won't be back.

Another case of this is in Pennsylvania, where we noted Obama's numbers have continued to slide. Rep. Joe Sestak (D) today was asked if he wanted the president to join him on the trail; he said he would welcome the president -- but prefers his wife, Colby Itkowitz of the Morning Call reports today.

Photo Credit: White House / Pete Souza

by Christi Parsons

President Obama will tour the Ford plant on the south side of Chicago next week to talk about the recovery of the auto industry and the importance of investing in energy-efficient vehicles.

The visit Thursday, Aug. 5 will include a conversation with workers at the plant, where Ford officials recently announced plans to add 1,200 new jobs.

The company has been retrofitting its Torrence Avenue plant to manufacture the redesigned Explorer sport utility vehicle for several months now. The new Explorer is supposed to go on sale later this year.

Ford is investing in its Illinois operations to help launch the smaller, more fuel-efficient SUV, assisted by Department of Energy loan guarantees to companies that invest in clean energy upgrades.

Photo Credit: AP / Lawrence Jackson

by Mike Memoli

Lisa Mascaro and I reported for today's papers on the new troubles of New York Democrat Charlie Rangel, former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. He faces a hearing before the House ethics committee next Thursday, what amounts to a trial over allegations including improper use of official letterhead and failure to pay taxes on rental property in the Dominican Republic.

But the real political problem facing Democrats is here:

Rangel, 80, could face reprimand, censure or expulsion if the House Ethics Committee determines he violated rules. Any such sanction would be subject to a vote of the full House.

Only two members of the House have been expelled, and the last was Jim Traficant, who had already been convicted at the time of the vote of his peers. It is unclear if there is any criminal investigation underway of Rangel, but most of his charges here are for violating House rules only.

When Rangel surrendered his chairman's gavel earlier this year, he said it was because he didn't want to become an issue for fellow Democrats in an election year. This hearing now is scheduled to begin after the 100-day countdown begins toward election day. Don't be surprised, then, if others in the Democratic caucus are quietly pushing for Rangel to resign before the hearing, which is open to the public and TV cameras, begins.

Photo Credit: AP / Alex Brandon

by Mike Memoli

In his first public comments on the matter, President Obama said that Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack "jumped the gun" in seeking the resignation of Shirley Sherrod.

Speaking with ABC News in an interview to be aired Friday, Obama blamed Vilsack's hasty decision on the current media environment.

"He jumped the gun, partly because we now live in this media culture where something goes up on YouTube or a blog and everybody scrambles," he said. "I've told my team and I told my agencies that we have to make sure that we're focusing on doing the right thing instead of what looks to be politically necessary at that very moment. We have to take our time and think these issues through."

Press secretary Robert Gibbs has rejected suggestions that Vilsack resign over the matter.

Obama also talked of lessons to be learned from the incident, saying that "rather than us jumping to conclusions and pointing fingers at each other, we should all look inward and try to examine what's in our own hearts and, as a consequence, I think we will continue to make progress."

by James Oliphant

ORLANDO, FL -- Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio brought his campaign to Central Florida Thursday, trying to maintain momentum in a closely-watched race that has become increasingly competitive.

Rubio's bid has lost some of the limelight it attracted earlier this year, when a surge in his support from state Republicans drove Florida Gov. Charlie Crist to pursue the same Senate seat as an independent. But his fundraising remains robust, and polls show he and Crist locked in a tight race. Potential Democratic nominees Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek are lagging behind. (The Democratic Senate primary will be held Aug. 24.)

While Crist's exit from the GOP in April was viewed in some circles as a desperate gamble that would extinguish his senatorial hopes, the opposite appears to have occurred. The governor has benefited from his statewide name recognition and high approval ratings and has seized the lead in the race as a result. And the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has allowed Crist to assume an even higher profile; he's taken several trips to the economically-ravished Panhandle, soaking up media coverage.

Crist has also attacked Rubio over his support of offshore oil drilling, an issue that has become central to the race here. The governor called a special session of the Florida Legislature earlier this week to debate amending the state constitution to ban offshore drilling in state waters. (It's already illegal under state law.) But the Republicans in the House and Senate, many of whom are aligned with Rubio, scotched the session almost immediately, determined not hand Crist a political victory.

For Rubio, it's all complicated a path to the Senate that once looked clear, but he remains a darling of conservatives. He'll be back in Orlando on Saturday in an event with talk show host Laura Ingraham. And Crist's drift leftward in pursuit of Democratic and independent voters have given Rubio an effective line of attack.

by Christi Parsons

President Obama and his family plan to spend a weekend this August on the Florida coast, just days before they head to Massachusetts for their regularly scheduled summer vacation, a White House official says.

The addition to the schedule will put the first family on the Gulf of Mexico as oil spill clean-up and possibly containment efforts continue, underscoring the president's message that the beleaguered coastal state is still a nice place to visit.

The visit may also help ward off criticism that, while the president encourages others to go to the Gulf, he will spend his vacation among the elite set on the island of Martha's Vineyard. This is the second year that the Obamas are spending there.

White House spokesman Bill Burton said the administration will announce in coming days which beach city the Obamas will visit.

by Lisa Mascaro

The House passed legislation Thursday extending unemployment insurance for 2.5 million jobless Americans, sending the bill to President Obama who is expected to quickly sign it into law.

Continued aid for the unemployed had been stalled for weeks over Republicans' insistence that the $33.9 billion cost be paid from spending cuts elsewhere. Democrats have argued that extending jobless aid has typically been treated as an emergency and not required a funding source.

The vote was 272-152.

The Senate broke the stalemate earlier this week when two Republicans joined Democrats to pass the bill.

Obama plans to quickly sign the legislation into law, which would unleash the aid to those who had their benefits cut off in late May. The aid would be retroactive to the cut off and continue through November.

President Obama has called Shirley Sherrod to express his personal apology over the events of this week. The White House sends this readout:

The President reached Ms. Sherrod by telephone at about 12:35. They spoke for seven minutes.

The President expressed to Ms. Sherrod his regret about the events of the last several days. He emphasized that Secretary Vilsack was sincere in his apology yesterday, and in his work to rid USDA of discrimination.

The President told Ms. Sherrod that this misfortune can present an opportunity for her to continue her hard work on behalf of those in need, and he hopes that she will do so.

Our partners at the Hartford Courant write today about the fascinating developments in the Connecticut Senate primary -- a race that seemed all but over when former Rep. Rob Simmons suspended his campaign months ago.

Well this week Simmons used money left in his campaign account to run TV ads that remind GOP voters he's still on the ballot.

"Today, it's important to vote with your heart and your head," goes the script for the 30-second spot. "Bailouts and tax increases have crippled the economy and cost us jobs. ... National security must remain strong. Put your trust in the candidate who is and will be an advocate for veterans. ... In the Republican primary on Aug. 10, you do have a choice. I'm Rob Simmons, I'm still on the ballot, and I approved this message."

Simmons, in a press release, minimized the significance of what he called "a public service announcement."

But the announcement served to maximize the wacky-factor in a campaign that may set a Connecticut standard for unpredictability. The McMahon campaign called it "very strange and erratic" behavior.

Despite the controversy over his occasional misrepresentation of his military service, Democratic nominee Dick Blumenthal is still considered a strong favorite in the race. These shenanigans ahead of the GOP primary next month do little to change that.

Photo Credit: AP / John Woike

Tom Hamburger and Julia Love have a must-read on how the oil industry has spent big money on lobbyists since the April 20 disaster at the Deepwater Horizon rig.

The American Petroleum Institute, the chief advocacy group for the oil industry, nearly doubled its lobbying budget in the three months after the explosion, spending more than $2.3 million since March, according to a report filed Monday. The organization reported that it focused on dozens of pieces of new legislation and regulatory rules.

The industry is particularly concerned about the Interior Department moratorium on deep-water drilling. The American Petroleum Institute reported on its lobbying forms that it is also monitoring legislation with titles like "End Big Oil Tax Subsidies Act of 2010" and the proposed "No New Drilling Act."

Transocean Ltd., which leased the Deepwater Horizon rig to BP, hadn't spent a dime on lobbying before the explosion. Now, they've already spent at least $110,000.

Read the full piece here.

by Mike Memoli

Bill Clinton's image took a bit of a beating during the 2008 presidential race, as his passionate advocacy on behalf of his wife's campaign occasionally led to trouble. But a new Gallup survey finds that the former president is now more popular than President Obama for the first time, with his favorability rating near his pre-campaign high.

In the national survey of more than 1,000 adults, 61 percent viewed Clinton favorably. That's up from a recent low of 50 percent in early 2008, and near his personal high of 63 percent in early 2007. By comparison, 45 percent view former President George W. Bush favorably, and 52 percent view Obama favorably.

Clinton is also viewed more favorably than Obama among Democrats -- 89 percent vs. 86 percent. Eighty-five percent of Republicans view Bush favorably.

Bush has also seen his favorability rating improve as he maintains a low profile in the second year of his post-presidency. His favorable rating has jumped 10 points since last polled in March 2009, and is at its highest since January 2007.

by Mark Z. Barabak

Sarah Palin has cause to celebrate after Tuesday's Republican primary in Georgia, where a timely endorsement helped lift her favored candidate into an Aug. 10 gubernatorial runoff. Closer to home, however, things aren't looking as bright for the former governor-turned-TV personality/"tea party" tribune/prolific-Facebooker.

Georgia's insurance commissioner, John Oxendine, was widely considered the GOP front-runner until Palin weighed in last week on behalf of Secretary of State Karen Handel, who finished first in Tuesday's balloting.

But the outlook doesn't seem as promising for another Palin favorite, Joe Miller, who is waging an uphill bid for U.S. Senate back in Palin's home state. Palin endorsed the Fairbanks attorney in a June Facebook posting, calling him "a true Commonsense Constitutional Conservative."

A new survey, however, has Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski crushing Miller in Alaska's Aug. 24 primary, 62% to 30%, and shows Murkowski to be considerably more popular than Palin.

"She's become really quite a polarized figure [in Alaska], which I don't think is any different of how she is perceived nationally," said Ivan Moore, the Anchorage-based pollster who conducted the survey July 7-11.

Photo Credit: AP

by Mike Memoli

The White House has apologized to a former USDA employee it now says was fired before the situation involving controversial videotaped comments was fully reviewed.

"A disservice was done for which we apologize," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Wednesday afternoon, saying he spoke for the entire administration.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack was attempting to reach the former employee, Shirley Sherrod, to speak further about the matter, Gibbs added. Vilsack said in a statement released overnight that he would reconsider the department's decision to demand Sherrod's resignation.

While apologizing for the White House specifically, Gibbs also said the media and political activists also were culpable for making "determinations and judgments without a full set of facts."

"I don't think there's any doubt that if we all look at this, one of the great lessons we will take away from this is to ask all the questions first," Gibbs said.

by Mike Memoli

President Obama signed into law today what he called the "strongest consumer financial protections in history." The passage of financial reform is considered by the White House to be one of its signature achievements, one that will feature prominently in the midterm election campaign, as Jim Puzzanghera points out.

But as White House press secretary Robert Gibbs prepares to face reporters shortly, one story is sure to dominate his briefing, and it's not the bill signing. The USDA's controversial firing of Shirley Sherrod after a conservative web site released edited video footage of a speech to the NAACP has embroiled the White House in another media firestorm over race.

The problem for the White House is partly of its own making. It initially stood by Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack's decision to fire Sherrod, but Vilsack reversed course overnight and is now re-evaluating. And the administration is not alone: the NAACP, which initially renounced her speech, later claimed that it had been "snookered by Fox News and Tea Party Activist Andrew Breitbart."

The larger point is that an administration which routinely criticizes the current media culture seems to have walked into a larger mess because of how it allegedly seemed to be catering to it.

Our colleagues covering the trial of Rod Blagojevich have the news today that the former governor will not be testifying, as expected.

After stating his name, Blagojevich said he understood the decision he was making. "Yes, judge, fully and completely," Blagojevich said.

"It is my decision, under the advice of my attorneys," he said. "I make the decision fully and voluntarily."

Outside the 25th-floor courtroom, Blagojevich nodded and waved at spectators.

"Sometimes you've gotta listen to the advice of your lawyers" the former governor told reporters.

The news means that White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel will also not have to testify, sparing the administration another headache at a time when it can't afford new distractions.

For ongoing coverage of the trial, be sure to bookmark the Blagojevich On Trial blog.

Photo Credit: Tribune / Jose M. Osorio

by Mike Memoli

For the second time in as many months, the endorsement of Sarah Palin pushed a female candidate for governor into a runoff against a member of Congress.

After votes were counted in Georgia last night, former Secretary of State Karen Handel led all Republican candidates in the gubernatorial primary with 34 percent of the vote. Finishing second and qualifying to challenge her in that August 10 vote is Nathan Deal, who resigned his seat in Congress this spring shortly after voting against the health care reform law.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that Deal predicted this morning that he would be endorsed by former primary opponents, former state Sen. Eric Johnson and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.

Both Deal and Handel also said they'd welcome appearances in the coming weeks by two high profile endorsers: Palin for Handel, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for Deal. Palin did not appear with Handel before Tuesday's initial vote.

In South Carolina last month, state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) emerged as the leader in that state's gubernatorial primary, and ultimately defeated Rep. Gresham Barrett in a runoff weeks later. Again, it was the support of Palin which provided a critical late boost. Though Handel did not use Palin in advertisements as Haley did, her first ad did evoke a Palin trademark, saying the race featured three candidates "with iffy ethics, one who wears lipstick."

Photo Credit: AP / Paul Abell

by Mike Memoli

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), the GOP's best hope of challenging Gov. Joe Manchin (D) in the special Senate election in West Virginia this fall, has decided against running, citing her commitment to the House and the possibility of a legal challenge.

A late compromise Monday in the West Virginia legislature included a provision that would have allowed an official like Capito to run both in the Senate race and in another regularly-scheduled election. Capito said that despite her colleague's laudable effort to "level the playing field," there remain "legal and practical questions regarding a person's ability to run for two offices."

"There has been enough unnecessary chaos and controversy surrounding the vacancy in the U.S. Senate," she said in a statement. "My candidacy would create more uncertainty, invite a legal challenge, and misrepresent my priorities as a public servant. The outcome could ultimately place my re-election to the House of Representatives in jeopardy and would leave the final decision in the hands of state officials rather than the voters."

State and national Republicans widely viewed Capito as their best candidate in a race that emerged this month. With so many other high priority races this November, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is unlikely to place heavy emphasis on the race, especially since there is another regularly-schedule election in 2012.

by Mike Memoli

Barack Obama's average job approval rating in the sixth quarter of his presidency ranks near the bottom of recent elected presidents, Gallup reported today.

Through the period beginning April 20 and ending July 19, Obama's average approval rating stood at 47.3 percent, the lowest in any quarter since he took office. Of the nine men who were elected president since 1952, only three others had average job ratings below 50 percent: two-term presidents Bill Clinton (46.1 percent) and Ronald Reagan (44.2 percent), as well as single-termer Jimmy Carter (41.8 percent).

George W. Bush had the strongest average job rating through the same period, at 74.9 percent.

Gallup notes that elected presidents with sub-50 percent approval ratings at this point "tended to see more significant midterm congressional seat losses than other presidents. This was particularly true for Reagan and Clinton."

by Mike Memoli

The crowded field of candidates hoping to be Georgia's next governor will likely be narrowed down to a final four tonight, when votes are counted in the state's primary election.

Both Republicans and Democrats expect that no candidate will receive the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid an August 10 primary runoff. But tonight could provide an early test of the strength of endorsements from party heavyweights.

In the Republican primary, candidates include state Senate President Eric Johnson, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal. Polling shows Handel as the late front-runner, boosted in part by the endorsement last week of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

On the Democratic side, we'll find out whether Roy Barnes becomes the fourth former governor to get a chance to reclaim his old job. California's Jerry Brown (D), Oregon's John Kitzhaber (D), and Iowa's Terry Branstad (R) have already won their respective primaries, and Maryland's Bob Ehrlich (R) is a heavy favorite to do so in September. But Barnes is no sure thing, as state Attorney General Thurbert Baker received a late boost in the form of an endorsement from former President Bill Clinton.

Neither Clinton nor Palin has actively campaigned for their endorsed candidates. But the results tonight will still be seen as a test of their influence on primary contests.

Photo Credit: AP / John Bazemore

(UPDATE: The panel has now formally approved the Kagan nomination, sending it to the full Senate. David Savage's full report available here.)

by Mike Memoli

Again breaking with his party on a Supreme Court vote, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) announced this morning he would back Elena Kagan when the Judiciary Committee votes on whether to send her nomination to the full Senate.

Graham said that with the exception of John McCain, "nobody worked harder than me" to defeat Barack Obama in the 2008 election.

"While it is our responsibility ... to put the nominee to a test, it is also our obligation to honor elections, respect elections, and to respect the court," Graham said.

The South Carolina senator described Kagan, the current solicitor general, as "smart," "funny," and "academically gifted." He added that she was "in the mainstream of liberal judicial philosophy," and had the experience and knowledge to serve on the bench.

by Mike Memoli

Just hours after signing a compromise bill setting a special election for November 2, West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) announced this morning that he would be a candidate in the race to complete the late Robert Byrd's unexpired term.

"I can't fill his shoes," Manchin said. "I only hope that I can follow in his footsteps and to continue to help the people of West Virginia."

The popularity of Manchin -- he was elected in 2004 and re-elected in 2008 by wide margins -- makes him the early frontrunner in that race. But a late compromise that allowed legislation to move ahead in the state legislature gave Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) the option of running as well, in addition to seeking re-election to her current House seat.

Democrats still have a registration advantage in the Mountain State, and all statewide elected officials, including the state's other U.S. Senator, are Democrats. But Republicans are hopeful that Manchin can be given a real challenge when he has to answer questions about national issues like cap and trade, health care and stimulus, where national Democratic orthodoxy is less popular.

President Obama lost West Virginia in 2008, and his approval rating in the state is just 34 percent according to Gallup, tied for second worst of the 50 states.

by Mike Memoli

West Virginia lawmakers are close to striking a deal on legislation that would call for special Senate election this year, despite partisan sniping that nearly derailed plans for the fall vote.

The state legislature was debating a law that called for a late August special primary followed by a November general election that would allow voters to choose a new senator to finish the late Robert Byrd's unexpired term. Progress stalled, however, amid concerns from state Republicans that Democrats would seek to prohibit U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) from running in both that special election for Senate and for re-election to the House on the same ballot.

Democrats argued that existing state law is clear in prohibiting candidates from seeking two offices at the same time, while the GOP said it was clear these were special circumstances.

Gov. Joe Manchin (D) postponed and then ultimately canceled a scheduled news briefing with reporters this afternoon to discuss the legislation as talks appeared to break down. But the AP now reports that a compromise has been reached that would allow Capito to run in both elections.

The five-term Congresswoman has not yet indicated her plans for the seat. Some national Republicans think she ultimately will not run against the popular Manchin

Photo Credit: AP / Charleston Gazette

* See update to this report after the jump, with a clarification of Biden's comments.

by Mike Memoli

Vice President Biden, known for his rhetorical flourishes, offered high praise for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today, calling her "the most powerful person in American politics." We wonder what President Obama thinks of that remark.

One week after the House Democratic caucus was steaming mad at the White House over a comment from press secretary Robert Gibbs, Biden was simply gushing over Pelosi, seemingly at the expense of his own boss.

"The single most successful, the single most persuasive, the single most strategic leader I have ever worked with is Nancy Pelosi," Biden said at a Philadelphia fundraiser benefiting Democratic Congressional candidates, including Bryan Lentz, running for the seat Joe Sestak is vacating to run for U.S. Senate.

According to a pool report of the event from the Philadelphia Inquirer's Joelle Farrell, Biden also called Pelosi "the mother of health care," a nod to her ability to hold together House Democrats in passing the president's signature reform initiative.

A bit of context: one of the previous speakers, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.), had introduced Pelosi as "the most powerful women in American politics." Biden apparently didn't think that gave her enough credit.

by Kathleen Hennessey

Picking up on Peter Nicholas' Sunday story about tea party infighting, Tea Party Express came out swinging today against the federation that expelled the group and its leader Mark Williams over his attack on the NAACP.

Tea Party Express spokesman Joe Wierzbicki released a statement this morning mocking the National Tea Party Federation:

"The Tea Party Express with over 400,000 members is by far larger than the Tea Party Federation's entire membership. Most rank-and-file tea party activists think we're talking about Star Trek when we try to explain who the "Federation" is. Given the absurdity of the actions by the "Federation," this is quite fitting, since their conduct is alien to our membership.

Groups trying to say who can or can't be 'expelled' from the tea party movement is arrogant and preposterous. Perhaps this explains why so many tea party groups have left the "Federation" during the past few months. Whatever the reason, most tea party activists are focused on taking back their country and the upcoming 2010 elections and not silly power games being played by individuals such as those in the 'federation.'

"To add to the absurdity of the 'federation' they have also informed us that our members can't participate in something called their 'basecamp' communication network, which makes us think that the individuals involved in the 'federation' spend a bit too much time watching science fiction movies and cartoons. We here at the Tea Party Express prefer a focus that is more grounded in the Constitution and electing tea party conservatives to offices of import in these 2010 elections. The 'federation' has enabled and empowered the NAACP's racist attacks on the tea party movement, and they should be ashamed of themselves.

Circular firing squads of groups within the tea party movement attacking one another accomplish nothing, and on this issue the Tea Party Federation is wrong, and has both enabled and empowered the NAACP's racist attacks on the tea party movement. Which is something they'll realize when they beam themselves back from basecamp."

Peter Nicholas and Lisa Mascaro reported on the president's remarks this morning on unemployment benefits.

On the eve of a vote to extend jobless benefits, President Obama urged Republican senators to set aside partisanship and vote for a package that will provide relief to 2.5 million out-of-work Americans.

Obama appeared in the Rose Garden to make his case, one day before the Senate is expected to hold a key procedural vote on extending unemployment benefits. The vote is set to take place 15 minutes after the Senate swears in a new Democratic senator from West Virginia, giving Democrats the votes they need to overcome a Republican-led filibuster.

Obama noted that Republicans voted to extend jobless benefits under his GOP predecessor, George W. Bush, but have been unwilling to do so now.

Also don't miss Lisa's piece today about how the GOP's fight against extending benefits without dedicated funding began with the unlikeliest champion: retiring Sen. Jim Bunning.

Photo Credit: AP / Charles Dharapak

Our friends at Clout Street reported last night on the news that President Obama will be heading to Chicago in two weeks to headline a campaign event for Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic candidate running for Obama's old Senate seat.

The fundraiser announcement, which was confirmed by the White House, comes on the heels of the one-term state treasurer announcing that he is trailing Republican opponent Mark Kirk in fundraising by a significant margin.

"The President's visit will reinforce the importance of the clear choice Illinois voters face" between Giannoulias and Kirk, a veteran North Shore congressman, Giannoulias campaign manager Mike Rendina said in a statement.

They also note that the Obama visit would likely come as Rod Blagojevich's defense team mounts its argument in the trial over the former governor's alleged attempt to use his appointment to that seat for personal gain. Blagojevich testifies today.

National Republicans have seized on the news.

by Mike Memoli

BAR HARBOR -- The Obama family only spent about 48 hours here on picturesque Mount Desert Island this weekend. But the presidential retreat from the partisan swamp that is Washington was largely uninterrupted, something that hasn't always been the case in his year and a half as leader of the free world.

Upon arrival Friday afternoon, the first family made a beeline to Cadillac Mount in Arcadia National Park, enjoying the incredible vista over Frenchman's Harbor. Their stops also included ice cream and seafood downtown, a stop at a lighthouse and a hike across the island in Bass Harbor, some tennis and swimming at an upscale resort. The first couple even had date night alone while the kids rested up at the hotel.

For the residents and other visitors, the first family were a welcome curiosity, or maybe an unwelcome distraction. Crowds seemed to gather anywhere the motorcade traveled on the island, some even successfully managed to guess where the presidential entourage might come.

Anne Lee, a Bass Harbor native, took her son Colby to the lighthouse knowing the president was likely to visit. She excitedly told me Saturday afternoon that Obama asked her son whether he played football.

by Kathleen Hennessey

Rep. Michele Bachmann has filed paperwork to form a "tea party" caucus in the House. The Minnesota Republican and conservative darling sent a letter on Thursday seeking to register the caucus with the House Committee on Administration. The caucus "will serve as an informal group of members dedicated to promote Americans' call for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution and limited government," the letter said. Bachmann will be its chair.

"The American people are speaking out loud and clear," she said in a statement. "They have had enough of the spending, the bureaucracy, and the government knows best mentality running rampant today throughout the halls of Congress. This caucus will espouse the timeless principles of our founding, principles that all Members of Congress have sworn to uphold."

While many other incumbent Republicans were unsure of how close to get to the tea party movement, Bachmann quickly embraced it and has acted as a sort of tea party ambassador to Congress. (http://articles.latimes.com/2009/dec/27/nation/la-na-michele-bachmann27-2009dec27)

Rand Paul, the Republican candidate for Senate in Kentucky, has said he would form a Senate Tea Party Caucus if he gets elected.

No word yet on who will join Bachmann in the House caucus. A spokesman from her office said she is still waiting for final approval from the House committee.

by Mike Memoli

President Obama sounded a note of cautious optimism about efforts to contain the Gulf oil spill, saying a new cap on the damaged well offers hope that the end of the crisis is near.

Speaking hours after BP reported that oil had stopped flowing from its Deepwater Horizon site, Obama said scientists were working to determine whether the new cap can be a viable long-term solution. Even if it could not permanently shut in the well, Obama said it could potentially capture nearly all of the oil that would flow.

"It's important that we don't get ahead of ourselves here," he added, stressing that more will be known after scientists complete their tests. He also said that while oil may stop flowing, work continues on efforts to clean affected beaches and compensate victims.

"Obviously we've still got a big job to do."

by Mike Memoli

More than two weeks after the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D), Senate Democrats will soon have their 59th vote again.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will name Byrd's appointed successor at the state capitol in Charleston Friday, his office announced this afternoon. That individual will serve until a special election can be held to choose someone who will finish the unexpired term, which ends in January 2013.

Manchin himself is considered a likely candidate in that race, though it still is unclear when it might occur. The West Virginia legislature today began debating legislation that will specify the date, including whether a special primary election will also be held.

Local and wire reports list several potential interim senators: former Manchin aide Carte Goodwin; former state Democratic Party chair Nick Casey; Anne Barth, a former Byrd aide who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) in 2008; and former Governors Gaston Caperton and Bob Wise.

by Mike Memoli

Financial reform legislation edged closer to passage this morning, after the Senate voted to end debate on one of Democrats' key legislative priorities.

The vote to invoke cloture on the measure, a sweeping overhaul of rules governing Wall Street and the financial sector, received just enough votes to end filibuster. Sixty senators, including three Republicans, supported the motion, while 38 voted against it.

"It is not a perfect bill," Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), chair of the Banking Committee, said before the vote. "But we believe we've done the best we could under the circumstances to see to it that we never have another bailout of a major financial institution at taxpayer expense."

Vote on final passage is expected this afternoon, which would allow President Obama to sign the bill into law, likely next week.

But, as Jim Puzzanghera writes this morning, Obama's signature "won't mark the end of the high-stakes battle over remaking Wall Street. It will be more like the halftime show."

by Colby Itkowitz

Sen. Arlen Specter says that although Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan's "did little to undo the impression that nominating hearings are little more than a charade," he will support her.

Although Specter famously opposed Robert Bork to the anger of his then Republican party, Specter has never voted against any of the sitting judges. Specter is known to play hardball during confirmation hearings, but then ultimately votes for the nominee.

Revealing his decision in a USA Today op-ed, he provides all the reasons why he may not have voted for her, noting that she failed to give "meaningful" answers to a long list of issues he inquired about.

But, he concludes that: "In addition to her intellect, academic and professional qualifications, Kagan did just enough to win my vote by her answers that television would be good for the country and the court, and by identifying Justice Marshall as her role model."

Read Specter's full op-ed here.

by Mike Memoli

Clarifying remarks that have angered some Congressional Democrats, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said today that the party will hold its majorities in the House and Senate after November elections.

Gibbs, speaking at today's White House briefing, said he has not spoken with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or heard from other leaders about his statement on "Meet The Press" Sunday that, "There's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control."

Asked about reports that Pelosi was furious with him, the presidential spokesman said the speaker's opinion matters to him.

"Let's be clear that the work that the House and the speaker have done over the past 18 months in making tough choices and making tough votes and in passing the agenda of this president have -- have been monumental," he said, a comment that seemed meant to acknowledge the concerns of House Democrats specifically that they were being left in a lurch.

He then made a new prediction.

"There are a whole host of issues that will be worked on in the next couple weeks that will highlight the choices that voters will have. And I think in that choice, we are going to do very well. And I have said throughout this, I think we will retain the House and the Senate," he said.

by Mike Memoli

In a piece on the White House's midterm strategy, Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons noted that in a state like Pennsylvania, Democrats were concerned that the president could be a negative this fall.

"His numbers are low, and I suspect there are going to be areas of Pennsylvania where people are not going to be anxious for him to come and, quite frankly, he's not going to be anxious to come in," Kessler said, pointing to the reelection campaign of Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Murphy in the GOP-heavy Philadelphia suburbs: "Do you think Patrick Murphy wants President Obama to set foot in his district?"

A new Quinnipiac poll released today offers greater statistical evidence to that point.

Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 42 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012. In fact, 41 percent of voters say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate in 2012, while 40 percent say they would vote for Obama. Independent voters say they would go for a Republican 37 - 33 percent.

"When a politician's approval rating is down 13 points among independent voters, that is generally a sign of political vulnerability," said Brown. "The 6-point margin held by those who say President Obama doesn't deserve a second term over those who think he does also should make the White House nervous, especially since Pennsylvania has not voted Republican for president since 1988. Here too, his weakness is among independents, who say 51 - 35 percent he does not deserve a second term."

by Kathleen Hennessey

When it comes to the so-called 'birther' lawsuits, it's not hard to find conservative and tea party activists who want to investigate President Obama's birthplace. It's a lot harder to find a high-level elected official to agree with them -- until now.

In a campaign appearance over the weekend, Louisiana Republican Sen. David Vitter endorsed the lawsuits, although he cautioned that they could distract his party in an election year.

Asked by a questioner what he would do about President Obama's "refusal to produce a valid birth certificate," Vitter said:

"I know all the information I've been able to get my hands on through the media. But obviously with the mainstream media as a filter, that's not a whole lot. I personally don't have standing to bring litigation in court. But I support conservative legal organizations and others who would bring that to court. I think that is the valid and most possibly effective grounds to do it."

Vitter's comments were captured on video by the state Democratic Party and posted on the left-leaning Talking Points Memo website.

He went on to note that he didn't think the issue was winning one for Republicans.

by Lisa Mascaro

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this afternoon offered the first broad outline of the energy bill he expects to bring to the floor later this month - including a possible limit on pollution from utility companies.

Senate leaders met with President Obama today at the White House where energy and other topics were discussed, and Reid was meeting this afternoon with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and White House energy czar Carol Browner on the legislation.

At issue has been whether any energy bill would try to cap carbon, a contentious issue before the coming midterm elections that divides not only the parties, but Democrats as well.

Reid outlined four broad sections of the bill, but would not specifically say a carbon cap on coal-fired power plants was included.

"We're looking at a way of making sure that when we talk about pollution we're focused on just the utility sector," Reid told reporters.

by Mike Memoli

George Steinbrenner's legacy was built through baseball. But the owner of the New York Yankees, who died today at age 80, was no stranger to the world of politics.

His first time in Major League Baseball's penalty box was for illegal campaign contributions to the re-election campaign of President Richard Nixon. Steinbrenner pleaded guilty in 1974, but was pardoned in 1989 by departing President Ronald Reagan.

The Boss, as he was known, was a frequent contributor to campaigns, particularly of late in the state of Florida. Recent recipients included Democrats and Republicans, including the political action committee of former New York Mayor and noted Yankee fan Rudy Giuliani, as well as the presidential campaign of adopted New Yorker Hillary Clinton. He also gave to the 2004 re-election campaign of a hall of fame pitcher, Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning.

Steinbrenner was also good for an occasional one-liner from presidents. In 2002, President George W. Bush spoke at the commencement ceremony at Ohio State University. Sharing the stage was none other than Steinbrenner, who also received an honorary degree that day.

"I guess we're both being honored as legends of baseball -- legends, at least, in our own minds," said Bush, former owner of the Texas Rangers.

Two more great presidential one-liners after the jump.

Photo Credit: AP / Chris O'Meara

by Mike Memoli

The top pharmaceutical group has named John Castellani, most recently president of the Business Roundtable, as it's new president and CEO, effective September 1. He replaces Billy Tauzin, the former Louisiana Congressman who held one of the most high-profile lobbying posts in Washington for five years.

In Castellani, PhRMA chooses someone who did not attack the health care legislation debated and passed by Congress in the past year. In fact, Castellani had participated in a White House kickoff summit on health care. He also warned that the partisanship surrounding the debate could threaten the any benefits from the law after it was signed.

"My greatest fear is on the verge of being realized and that is the highly-charged political environment surrounding health care reform will interfere with the monumental task of implementation," he wrote at the Business Roundtable's blog.

"His experience in coalition building and strong reputation of working across the political divide set him apart," David Brennan, AstraZeneca's CEO and the head of PhRMA's search committee, said in a release announcing the choice.

White House reporters Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons have a must-read piece on the White House political operation's strategy for the midterms.

Administration officials concede that President Obama's standing among independent voters has diminished, but say he will be doing what he can to re-energize the Democratic base.

As for campaigning with Democratic candidates and incumbents, however, it may be Vice President Joe Biden who is most in demand. From the piece:

In a tag-team arrangement, the White House is carving out a separate campaign role for Vice President Joe Biden that tries to leverage the pair's distinct political skills.

While Obama raises money and tries to rekindle key elements of his 2008 coalition, Biden will crisscross the country, paying special attention to working class districts that may be more receptive to his blue-collar persona. As the president sells the larger economic message -- recovery is on the way, once his programs have time to work -- Biden will cast the policies in more personal terms.

Be sure to read the full piece here.

Photo Credit: Pete Souza / White House

by Michael Muskal

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown said on Monday that he will support the financial regulation overhaul, becoming one of the Republicans needed to moved one of the Obama administration's key pieces of legislation into law.

Brown had announced that he would oppose the compromise bill that had been negotiated by the House and Senate, but shifted his support after bargainers went back to the table and restructured about $19 billion in payments that was opposed by banks in Brown's state. A final Senate vote could come this week.

"I appreciate the efforts to improve the bill, especially the removal of the $19-billion bank tax. As a result, it is a better bill than it was when this whole process started. While it isn't perfect, I expect to support the bill when it comes up for a vote," Brown said in a prepared statement.

Brown joined Sen. Susan Collins of Maine as two crucial Republican votes for the legislation.

Democrats need 60 votes to prevent a GOP filibuster. Even with Brown and Collins, the vote is expected to be close. The death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has costs the Democrats a sure yes vote, and at least two Democrats have said they were unhappy with the final form of the bill, though at least one said she is likely to vote for it.

More over at D.C. Now.

Photo Credit: AP / Drew Angerer

by Mike Memoli

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs has garnered quite a few headlines this morning for acknowledging Sunday that Democrats' control of Congress could end in November.

"There's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control. There's no doubt about that," he told David Gregory on "Meet The Press."

It's important to point out that Gibbs did not outright predict a Democratic loss. But his comment served two purposes for the White House. First, it alerted the president's allies and past supporters -- should they not understand it already -- as to the stakes for the party in November.

"Do you want to put into the speakership of the House a guy who thinks that the financial calamity is tantamount to an ant?" Gibbs asked.

But more, it seems to be indicative of a campaign that's begun among Democrats to start lowering expectations about the November vote.

by Mike Memoli

BOSTON -- As Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas handed the chairman's gavel to Joe Manchin of West Virginia to close the National Governors Association gathering here Sunday, one fact conspicuously went unmentioned. If Manchin runs for and wins the Senate seat left vacant following the death of Robert Byrd, he'd be the first NGA chairman in decades to leave mid-term.

A spokeswoman for the nonpartisan organization brusquely refused to answer questions about that reality. A roundtable Manchin held with reporters Sunday afternoon to describe his NGA chairman's initiative -- to combat the college dropout rate, ironically enough -- began with a stern request to direct any unrelated questions to the governor's staff.

In an interview after that meeting, Manchin said any announcements as to his potential candidacy would wait until state lawmakers deal with the question of when a special election will be held.

"I come last," he told The Swamp.

by Mike Memoli

BOSTON -- The National Governors Association styles itself as a non-partisan organization. But beyond the consensus-oriented sessions on the official schedule, governors and gubernatorial hopefuls are using the weekend gathering for political gain as well.

Just a few examples:

The Republican Governors Association a tough salvo launched on the local airwaves against host Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat seeking re-election in a competitive three-way contest this fall. The TV ad accuses the governor of "wasteful spending, higher taxes, fewer jobs."

Tim Pawlenty (R), the retiring governor of Minnesota, is breaking away from the conference in Boston for some waters-testing events in neighboring New Hampshire, home of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. It's his third visit to the state in seven months, AP notes.

Another presidential hopeful and the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, is hosting a fundraiser in Boston for Nikki Haley, the Republican nominee for governor in another important early nominating state -- South Carolina.

Both the Democratic and Republican Governors Associations also held meetings this morning to strategize about the November elections.

by Michael Muskal

President Obama on Friday called on Congress to approve another $5 billion for clean-energy manufacturing tax credits as a way to stimulate job creation.

Speaking at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, Obama praised the popularity of the previous tax credits and called on Congress to increase them. Congress had approved $2.3 billion in such credits as part of the $862-billion economic stimulus legislation last year.

Obama said more than 180 projects in 40 states have been approved.

"The problem is, there aren't enough tax credits to go around," Obama told the crowd at the university. "When we announced the program last year, it was such a success that we received 500 applications requesting over $8 billion in tax credits. But we only had $2.3 billion to invest. In other words, we had almost four times as many worthy requests as we had tax credits."

Obama said he and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, the majority leader who is in a tight reelection race, want to help companies that are seeking to grow.

"That's why I'm urging Congress to invest $5 billion more in these kinds of clean energy manufacturing tax credits, more than doubling the amount we made available last year. This $5-billion investment would generate nearly 40,000 jobs and $12 billion or more in private sector investment," he said.

Continue reading at D.C. Now.

by Mike Memoli

BOSTON, Mass. -- More than 40 governors are attending this weekend's National Governors Association meeting, but few are attracting more attention than Arizona's Jan Brewer.

Reporters converged on the governor as she walked between sessions here today. Opponents of the illegal immigration law Brewer signed have organized protests Saturday outside of the conference hotel. And even though the topic of illegal immigration isn't on the agenda for the three-day gathering, Brewer said her colleagues have been eager to speak with her about Arizona's law and the federal government's decision to challenge it in court.

Brewer said today she's confident the law will withstand that challenge.

"We feel very, very confident that we stand on good ground," she said. "We will push forward, and believe from our heart that it's constitutional and the right thing to do."

Just as he's ramping up his effort to keep Congress in Democratic hands, Lisa Mascaro reports that President Obama is finding new resistance to his policies from his own caucus on Capitol Hill.

From her story today:

For the last year and a half, on issues including healthcare, financial regulation and climate change, Democrats in Congress have bent for President Obama. Liberals swallowed hard to accept compromises that fell short of their long-sought goals, and moderates cast tough votes that now threaten their reelection prospects as voters revolt against government overreach.

Then, last week, the president asked them to bend yet again -- this time to approve more money for his troop buildup in an Afghanistan war that many Democrats oppose.

And once again, lawmakers went to work. On the eve of the vote last week, Democratic leaders compiled a complicated $82-billion package of war funding, disaster aid and domestic spending that achieved the seemingly impossible -- meeting the president's request while accommodating the needs of its politically diverse members.

Obama responded with a one-word message that sent shudders through his party on the Hill: veto.In that exchange, the tension between the White House and the president's Democratic allies spilled over.

Obama has led what historians have called the most productive Congress since President Lyndon Johnson, but he may have a much harder time extracting difficult compromises in the future.

Check out the full piece here.

by Mike Memoli

One day after Gov. Joe Manchin (D) sought his opinion on the state's Senate succession law, West Virginia's attorney general said that the governor is authorized to call for a special election to fill the seat once held by Robert Byrd.

Darrel McGraw's opinion, released this afternoon, clears the way for Manchin to appoint a temporary replacement. But his recommendation that a special primary election be held first, rather than allowing the state political parties to appoint nominees, could have significant consequences for Democrats who want to keep the seat in their column.

The executive director of the West Virginia Republican Party told the Swamp yesterday that both parties had anticipated that no primary election would be held, and that each party's executive board would appoint nominees to run in an anticipated November special general election. McGraw's opinion suggests, however, that a "special primary election be held" November 2, "which maximizes the opportunity for all potential candidates to prepare for both the special election and the general election, and for all voters, including those in the Armed Services, to participate and have their voices be heard."

Democrats had hoped Manchin would be their candidate, while state GOP officials intended to nominate Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), if she decided to run in the race. It's unclear when a general election would then be held, but it likely could not occur until early 2011.

Manchin's office did not immediately respond to requests to comment on the ruling. We'll update as more information becomes available.

by Mike Memoli

As we continue our in-depth coverage of politicians weighing in on LeBron James, we note how the fate of the NBA superstar has temporarily brought together a Democrat and a Republican in one of the hottest Senate races in the country.

ESPN reported this morning that James is leaning toward signing the Miami Heat. Hours later, Republican candidate Marco Rubio tried egging him on, tweeting: "@kingjames(aka Lebron)come to Florida!"

Soon after Kendrick Meek, the leading Democratic candidate in the Senate race retweeted Rubio's plea, adding: "Shocking! We agree." Rubio then retweeted his rival's sentiment.

We won't get definitive word on James' decision until his primetime special on ESPN tonight. But if their reporting is correct, Rubio's and Meek's gain will be President Obama's loss. He had hoped, the White House said, that King James would join his hometown Chicago Bulls.

But James has already pitched in on Obama's behalf before. His one recorded political donation, according to OpenSecrets.org, is a $20,000 contribution to the Democratic National Committee, made in June of 2008 in support of the then-Illinois senator's campaign.

by Mike Memoli

President Obama is back on the political circuit, with fundraisers planned in the next two days for Democratic Senate candidates in Missouri and Nevada. Obama has already held events for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. But until today, the president has not held any campaign events with a non-incumbent candidate up for election this November, as he does today in Missouri with Senate hopeful Robin Carnahan.

"The President is going to be out talking about some of the choices that Americans will face as we get closer to the fall here and people go to vote, whether they want to choose someone who is going to continue the progress that we've made or choose someone who's wanting to go back to the policies that got us into the crises that we've been in," deputy press secretary Bill Burton told reporters en route to the Show-Me State today.

The heavily political trip represents the ramped-up White House engagement in the mid-term races. And given the current electoral landscape the political operation has quite a hill to climb.

With 59 seats in the Senate, Democrats would need to lose a net of 10 races this fall to lose their majority, something that long has seemed unlikely. But of 36 races currently scheduled (with another special election possible in West Virginia), the non-partisan Cook Political report now ranks 11 as toss-ups, eight of which are currently held by Democrats.

Add three more seats now held by Democrats that are favored to switch to Republican hands, and suddenly the idea of the Senate flipping to Republican control is not out of the question.

by Mike Memoli

Sarah Palin's political action committee has released its first campaign-style video, in which the former Alaska governor warns of a coming "stampede" by pink elephants and "Mama Grizzlies," conservative women who want to change Washington.

The offering from SarahPAC pulls together footage and audio from various Palin appearances, and shows her greeting women that have built a base of support for her since she emerged as a national figure.

"This year will be remembered as a year when common sense conservative women get things done for our country," the former VP nominee says. "It seems like it's kind of a mom awakening in the last year and a half. ... Moms kind of just know when something's wrong."

Unlike other such videos circulated by political campaigns, there is no overt money pitch or call to action. Nor does it highlight the women candidates Palin and her PAC have endorsed this year, like Nikki Haley in South Carolina or Susana Martinez in New Mexico. The tag simply encourages viewers to visit the SarahPAC site and "join the movement."

by Mike Memoli

LeBron James' much-anticipated decision about what team he will play for next season was even on President Obama's mind today.

Press secretary Robert Gibbs said the topic came up during White House meetings today, with the president mulling how Chris Bosh's decision to join Dwyane Wade with the Miami Heat might affect James' thinking on the eve of his expected announcement.

Gibbs said that Obama's preference continues to be that the NBA superstar joins the Chicago Bulls, the president's adopted hometown team.

"The president still believes that he would look quite good in a Bulls uniform," Gibbs told reporters today, before worrying the president might be charged with tampering.

A bigger concern is politics. Ohioans are understandably preoccupied with James' status, hoping the Akron native remains with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Given the Buckeye State's bellwether status in presidential elections, isn't it risky for Obama to be on record supporting a change?

by Katherine Skiba

Illinois Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan on Tuesday said, in so many words, thanks but no thanks to the soon-to-be-created position of director of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Madigan, a two-term AG who is on the ballot in November for a third term, was among those mentioned for the post in a story in the Wall Street Journal.

But Madigan told the Chicago Tribune that while she's grateful to be mentioned, she supports Warren for the job.

Madigan's full statement is available after the jump:

by Mike Memoli

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) said this morning he would strongly consider running in a special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd, one he would like to see occur this November.

Speaking with reporters in Charleston today, the governor said he will seek an opinion from the state attorney general to clarify what needs to happen for an election to take place this November (UPDATE: Letter available here). Manchin also again ruled out appointing himself to the post, but said he had several "high-caliber" candidates in mind for what would be a temporary assignment.

The secretary of state had said last week that current state law stipulates that an appointed senator would serve through November 2012, at which time two elections would occur - one to finish Byrd's unexpired term and another for a new six-year term.

Noting that members of Congress and state legislators are elected to two-year terms, Manchin said, "To assume that we can appoint someone for longer than someone else can get elected and serve doesn't make sense to me."

by Mike Memoli

A new Gallup survey puts President Obama's approval rating among independent voters below 40 percent for the first time, an ominous indicator of his support among swing voters who have begun to lean Republican this year.

One year ago, Obama posted a 56 percent approval rating among independent voters. That's down to 38 percent today. Among Republicans, support dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent. He is still strong among Democrats, though support fell from 90 percent to 81 percent.

Obama's overall job approval rating is at 46 percent, just shy of his lowest weekly average, Gallup reports.

by Mike Memoli

The Justice Department's decision to file suit against the state of Arizona over its anti-illegal immigration law is being repudiated by Democrats in the state's Congressional Delegation, each of whom face tough re-election battles.

"A court battle between the federal government and Arizona will not move us closer to securing the border or fixing America's broken immigration system," first-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) said in a statement today. "Washington failed us on this issue again today, and Arizonans have had enough."

Rep. Harry Mitchell (D), serving his second term representing the state's 5th district, says in a statement that he advised President Obama against a suit.

"Their time, efforts and resources should be focused on securing our border and fixing our broken immigration system. Arizona needs Washington to take action, but a lawsuit is definitely not the kind of action we need," he said.

by Mike Memoli

One month after Vice President Biden pitched in, White House senior adviser David Axelrod will headline an event on behalf of Alexi Giannoulias, who is running to keep Barack Obama's former Senate seat in Democratic hands.

The Giannoulias campaign announced Axelrod's commitment today, saying the event would occur this month; an aide confirmed July 25 as the specific date.

Giannoulias has made several trips to the White House to meet with White House officials, including Axelrod, to discuss the race -- most recently in March when he also attended an East Room function to honor Greek Independence Day.

Giannoulias' rival, Rep. Mark Kirk (R), reported raising $2.3 million in the second quarter of 2010, raising the stakes for the Democratic candidate. Through the first quarter, Kirk had a $1.8 million advantage over Giannoulias in cash on hand.

UPDATE: Speaking with ABC News today, Giannoulias said he expects the president will also campaign with him soon.

"I have a feeling he'll be out here a few times before November, and I think everyone will realize that this will be one of the most important races in the country," he said.

by Michael Muskal

With the Justice Department filing suit against Arizona's new law on immigration on Tuesday, the latest poll shows that Americans remain divided on whether the government should focus on halting the flow of illegal immigrants into the country or developing a plan to deal with those who are already in the U.S.

The Justice Department filed suit in Arizona, arguing that the law violates the federal government's authority to establish policy on immigration. Technically, the federal government is seeking a preliminary injunction to prevent Arizona from enforcing the law when it goes into effect July 29.

The suit, which had been expected, comes as the latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Americans are divided on which part of the immigration issue to stress. Half of Americans say they favor halting the flow of immigrants into the U.S., while 45% said they would focus on dealing with the estimated 12 million undocumented workers already in the country.

The poll was taken June 11-13 before President Obama's recent speech about immigration. He called for dealing with both issues, those entering illegally and those already here, at the same time.

Continue reading over at D.C. Now

by Mike Memoli

Two sitting members of the House of Representatives -- one Republican, one Democrat -- each have released new television ads for their Senate campaigns in the past 24 hours with a common message: Congress cannot be trusted with our money.

The ads from Indiana Democrat Brad Ellsworth and Missouri Republican Roy Blunt are only the latest example of elected officials in Washington walking a fine line as they seek new terms there.

"They waste our money. They take care of special interests. And they don't care of lobbyists write our laws, or if our jobs get shipped overseas," Ellsworth says in his ad, referring to members of the same body he serves in.

"Irresponsible spending and crippling debt are killing jobs today and our children's future tomorrow," Blunt says in his ad as an image of the U.S. Capitol appears on screen.

by Mike Memoli

President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed determined to downplay tensions between their nations and themselves today, from a cordial Q-and-A sessions with reporters right on through a friendly departure photo op.

This is the third meeting between the two leaders, but the first in which reporters and photographers had significant access. The Tribune's Christi Parsons, serving as the pool reporter today, noted that the two shared a "protracted handshake in front of the television cameras" during the Oval Office session, and later appeared chatty as Obama walked Netanyahu to his limo a short time ago.

"I'll have to paraphrase Mark Twain, that the reports about the demise of the special U.S.-Israel relationship aren't just premature, they're just flat wrong," Netanyahu said during the press availability in the Oval Office.

Netanyahu's last visit to the White House in March was considerably less friendly. Israeli media claimed the prime minister was snubbed by Obama, left waiting with aides in the Roosevelt Room as Obama abruptly left a meeting to have dinner with his family. Vice President Joe Biden, on a visit to Israel weeks earlier, arrived more than an hour late for a scheduled meeting amid reports that the nation was preparing to build new settlements in Jerusalem.

Asked today about whether he'd distanced himself from Israel and given "a cold shoulder" to Netanyahu, Obama bristled.

Photo Credit: Reuters / Kevin Lamarque

by Mike Memoli

The dust has just barely settled, but Michael Steele is still chairman of the RNC.

That's not to say Steele is safe. Just today, one state party chairman said he was leading an effort to unseat him. But, as pointed out Friday, the timing of his Steele's comments helped him immeasurably.

This is a very Washington-centric story, and by the time the infamous YouTube came to light many in Washington were one foot out the door, ready for a long holiday weekend. Most importantly, Republican members of Congress were either home in their districts or en route to overseas codels, beyond the reach of the few Washington reporters on the story as it developed Friday afternoon.

Two of those Republicans - Senators Lindsay Graham and John McCain, were strongly critical of Steele's comments but stopped just short of calling for his resignation. "I think that Mr. Steele is going to have to assess as to whether he can still lead the Republican Party," McCain told ABC.

Steele himself avoided public appearances, dodging even an ABC camera crew that went to his Maryland home. He was instead reaching out to party leaders like McCain behind the scenes. But he's scheduled to be back on the road supporting local Republicans this week. Thursday he opens the Colorado GOP's Victory headquarters outside of Denver Thursday and speaks at the Aspen Institute's Ideas Festival (UPDATE: The Aspen Institute now says Steele has canceled his appearance). He also headlines the Nevada Republican Party's state convention Friday (the same day President Obama is in the state), and the Washington State Republican Party's "Resurgence Rally" on Saturday.

Photo Credit: AP / Joe Giblin