Obama approval lags predecessors

Dems Jump Ahead In New Poll

Democrats have taken a significant lead over Republicans in the latest congressional Gallup Poll:

Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans, 49% to 43%, in voters' generic ballot preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. The Democrats' six-point advantage in Gallup Daily interviewing from July 12-18 represents the first statistically significant lead for that party's candidates since Gallup began weekly tracking of this measure in March.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/Democrats-Jump-Six-Point-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

That's a big jump and it makes sense in light of last week's events. In a strong economy, Republican scapegoating of the millions of Americans laid-off or unemployed as a result of the Bush recession might work. But with record, long term unemployment, most voters know someone whose job prospects and finances are desperate to grim. In that environment, protecting the Bush Republican tax cuts for the super-wealthy, Mega Corporations and Big OIl and obstructing critical unemployment benefits for the desperate will come home to roost for the Republican party this fall. Not to mention, Republicans lecturing the nation about debt is like Bristol Palin lecturing nuns about birth control.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/Democrats-Jump-Six-Point-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

No surprise here what with rising unemployment; a pork-stuffed stimulus bill that didn't stimulate; a 3000 page healthcare bill that nobody can decipher; the government spending money it doesn't have to no effect; Americans without hope after they were sold hope; Americans seeing the more of the same when they were sold change.
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Change? You want change? Here's some--Obama and his party have lost the support of the Indies and are hard pressed to get the left behind them.
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These numbers are going to continue dropping.
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Posted by: Just sayin' | July 20, 2010 4:24 PM
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Equal Time...or whatever sock-puppets you're using today,

Actually (in the real world) Pres Obama's numbers are holding up pretty well, considering the huge pile of stinking mess that the Republicans left on his doorstep on Jan 20, 2009.

And exactly who is it that has emerged in the past 12 months as a leader of the Republican party to take on Pres Obama in 2012?

Sarah "Quitter Queen"Palin? Nah, she cut and ran from political office in favor of siphoning money her gullible followers don't have, on a book they didn't read, and speeches they can't remember. Michael Steele? Please...don’t make me laugh. Orange John "the economy is an ant" Boehner? No. Chance. Whatsoever.. Mitch "No Neck" McConnell? Nope (see Boehner, John). John McCain? Excuse me...John McWho? Hmm... How about Crazy Glenn Beck? Nope. His ratings are tanking. It seems that even the most gullible of his Wingnuts followers are finally figuring out that his rodeo clown act is nothing more than a non stop sales schtick for himself. Bobby "Gilligan" Jindal, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty? Larry, Curly, Moe? Mike Huckabee? More like Mike Ain't-to-Be. Mitt "Flip Flopper" Romney? Heh, he's about as exciting as watching paint dry.

So for now it looks like proud racist Druggy Rush Limbaugh remains the de facto leader of the Republican party, seeing as no one has "emerged" to steal his mojo. But I'm sure there's a Saint Ronny Reagan lurking out there somewhere (TV Fred Thompson was supposed to be the next "Great Republican Communicator" in '08...unfortunately he kept falling asleep during his own speeches).

Congrats on your 2012 re-election Pres Obama!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAk7Hrf2joU

Rob/HHH, Obama's numbers are what they are.
People see his governing style and don't like it. Obama was advertised to be a guy who governed from the middle/left, a uniter.
Instead he only seems interested in catering to left base or whack jobs like you and Fitz. So far he has shown how to take a ton of money that was supposed to create jobs, hold onto it, want more money and create very little jobs. The Republicans are right, Obama and his people have the worst fiscal responsibility in the history of this country dollar for dollar. You can sit there and poke fun at Bristol Palin if you want or continue to blame Bush but the majority of the people now realize Obama is the REAL problem right now. November can't come fast enough for most of us to put an end to this nonsense. Obama knows this. That's why he continues running up the debt because he knows his credit card is about to be taken away as it should.

Interesting Poll Numbers of past Presidents. The popular Eisenhower in 1954 was at 64% but the Republicans lost control of both houses of congress in that Fall's Election. As strong and polular as IKE was he did not seem to have strong coattails. Nixon was at 58% but the GOP lost seats due to a recession In 1972 Nixon carried 49 states in a massive landslide after the Democrats moved way to the Left but did not carry in a Republican congress. Jimmy Carter was at a low 41% lost the presidency by a landslide in 1980 and the GOP gained control of the Senate for the first time since 1952. And in 1982 Reagan was at 44% and in the second part of a double dip recession and the GOP lost seats. But there was a big economic recovery, something missing from the current so called current feeble recovery, and Reagan won a huge victory with 49 states. Clinton at 46% was a disaster for the Democrats who lost both houses of congress to the GOP, the first time in 40 years. But Clinton moved to the political center and won reelection. Bush the Elder's popularity at 64% was inflated by the Gulf War, and Bush the Younger by September 11th. What happens this November still remains to be seen. But if the economy and the job situation remains bad it could only help the Republicans. But the GOP needs to be careful and not be over confident. They have been on the wrong side of the Wall Street Reform Bill and Unemployment Extension. The recent Gallup Generic Poll shows that both parties are not very popular and the Independents are not locked up. It will be interesting to see if this current Democratic generic lead holds. But unless the economy and job market makes a dramatic turn for the better the Democrats are probably still in deep trouble in November. How big the Democratic losses will be are still unknown. And President Obama still has a long time to turn around his political fortunes for 2012.

Posted by: conservativemaster | July 20, 2010 4:57 PM
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conservativeclown,

You need to step outside of the Right Wing Noise Machine/echo chamber every once in awhile and get some fresh air.

It's not surprising that Faux Noise and Druggy Rush etc would be claiming that Pres Obama is toxic, they're bald faced liars.

Gallup: 75% of Americans Correctly Blame Bush for the Current Bush Recession

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2010/04/23/gallup-75-of-americans-correctly-blame-bush-for-bush-recession/

5.7 Trillion Dollars later! Two on going wars in the Middle East! 9 Fired U.S. Attorneys! Caged votes! Suppressed votes! 700 Billion Dollar "FISA" Deal or no Immunity from Prosecution or Accountability DEAL! Rick Davis "portal to portal" Home Ownership Theft by Deception Alliance. 8 Million Jobs stolen! Just say you're broke! Take the TARP money! Just say your broke! Take the TARP money! 19 Billion Dollars in Lichtenstein hidden Tax Evading TEA PARTY "Whisper Accounts." 40 Billion Dollar Citibank hush money and your "Financial Service Sector" JOBS JOBS JOBS that Corporate America felt you didn't need. A "Economic Opportunity Immigration and Naturalization Act." Yes SB1070 99cent "The Description" TEA PARTY GOP starring "Trespassers in the GOP America First Degree." I think he's doing a great job! It's just a matter of time before 30 billion in TARP money goes directly straight pass the BANKS and into America's World Engines of Success! Obama is just fine! Just saying he's a failure isn't enough when there is SUCCESS on the GROUND!

It is a silly joke, to compare President Obama's 18 months in Office with his predecessors and it is extremely harmful to America and to our President. I will not bore you with the litanies of mishaps and disasters, the Cheney&Bush years rained down, on us, as a nation. I know you have to earn your good salaries and appear to be contributing to the political commentary, but such bogus comparisons only prove the suggestion that Corporate Media is in lock-step with the rest of Corporate America. Anybody but President Obama, is the Corporate World's mantra, in spite of our President's working, night and day, for all of America. That doesn't matter to most of you, but all of you know, it is true. That is why the constant vitriol. You're not taking any chances and have him re-elected, because that would bust your chops, that would blow you away !! That would tell you what sorry a$$e$, all of you morons are. You guys are so used to dealing with doofuses, you don't know a capable, regular guy, when he is our President. Your frustration, disappointment and selfishness has blinded you. I hope someone, or something opens your eyes before it is too late for OUR good country.
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.

Trillion dollars in additional debt and a 9.5% unemployment rate and you expect different?

Big laugh of the day is Rob, er former Republican, er HHH, er Dumb Dumb Janet, er John E., er whatever other nonsense IT wants to call itself, is calling another poster "whatever sock puppets you're using today."
And then we have the drugged-out creature known as Roger Morris. Roger, Bush did not have 5.7 trillion in debt in 8 years. While still too large, Bush's deficits are about half that amount. Now, in just 18 months, Obimbo has accumulated nearly $3 TRILLION in debt!
The fired U.S. attorneys? Every president, just as Obimbo did when he became prez, fire most, if not all, of the U.S. attorneys.
How exactly were 8 million jobs stolen? And, since Obimbo became prez, we've lost about 3 million jobs, does that mean Obimbo stole them???
And then the rest of your gibberish? Dude, STOP abusing the drugs and alcohol!!!

Hey Rob, all the world loves a clown... That's why Obama got elected.
Most people here do not doubt that 75% of voters surveyed at one time blame Bush for the recession. If that's what the people think then so be it. But I also bet you 75% of perspective voters think the 1 trillion dollar stimulus package that Obama created to create jobs is failure. That's on Obama, Reid & the witch.

Maybe he needs a new team?

Bailout watchdog calls mortgage programs a bust
Bailout watchdog says Treasury's $50 billion mortgage programs did little to stem foreclosure

Special inspector general for the financial bailouts Neil Barofsky says the program has not "put an appreciable dent in foreclosure filings."

He says the Treasury Department has ignored earlier demands that it set clearer goals for the program.

http://tinyurl.com/3xn72rk

To Rob who is so concerned with polls. A Poll released by Quinnipiac University yesterday (July 21) shows a any Generic Republican beating Obama in 2012 by 39 to 36 margin. Although I do not take much stock in these polls so far from the 2012 Presidential Election I thought you would find this one interesting since you cite polls so much.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1478

John D SPEAKS! Yes Massa John! Yes Sir! I waza wrong. Please forgive massa John! I'll drink the "Suspension of GOP Disbelief" TEA! George Bush didn't bank roll a collapsed America in the tune of 5. Trillion and then on the great FISA or no FISA Immunity Protection and no Dick Cheney Liability 700 Billion Dollar the Economy is strong, job creation is on the rise pomp pomp pomp me up! Why such viral in the tone of your voice! Drugs! Come on I didn't get the 500 Billion Dollar Medicare GOP D card! Snookered by the GOP Theft by "elderly care" Deception Axis of Bill Frisk Schiavo CARE. 31% higher (archives don't lie) If it took 5 Trillion Dollars to reclaim your America and you were the President of the United States, would you use it? Or would you say, hey we have to be strict-eyed conservatives today and don't worry why the Preacher man needs a new CAR! 8 Million Jobs losses later! Millions stuck in the GOP lead foreclosure meltdown because Fannie/Freddie was solvent until you put the same guy who ran MCI WORLDCOM into Bankruptcy in charge! You get GOP Foreclosure theft by Deception Axis of Evil doers! No homes for you! Just us! Just my "investors" Massa Alberto Gonzales said we needs to cage some votes! Get Monica on the line! Get Sarah on the line! Get all my Regents University Radical Extremist youngins on the Rose Garden now! READ the memo! Think illegal immigration only! Blame the mexicans, hispanics, latinos alike! Just keep the theft by deception coming! Ooops we lost! John McCain lost! Sarah the EVE in the Glenn Beck EEVS lost! Lady Liberty lost! Get out of here! Get out of here! He's a racist! He's a marxist! He's Hezbollah! He's a muslim! Hold your signs! Hold them high! Just scream! Just shout, Just let America know what the GOP is all about! No NO NO NO NO! Don't ask the Preacher Man why he needs a new car! Just wash it! Broke unemployed, foreclosed America! 5.7 Trillion Supplementary GOP Dollars later!

Look at the statistics. Under Reagan, the unemployment rate kept rising above 10% and didn't start to drop until well into his 3rd year.

These polls don't really mean much right now. Dems should lose a few seats this fall, but the GOP won't get the complete turn around they are looking for. Employment will start getting better and, with no really appealing candidates for the GOP, Obama will win a 2nd term in 2012.

Reagan's first 3 years:
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3

Obama so far:
2009 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.5

Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | July 20, 2010 9:16 PM
"...to compare President Obama's 18 months in Office with his predecessors...is extremely harmful to America..."
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So, he's the Fuhrer or "The Great Helmsman" and to criticize him is to attack the nation?!
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SIGH...
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John D SPEAKS! Yes Massa John! Yes Sir! I waza wrong. Please forgive massa John!
Posted by: Roger Morris | July 21, 2010 12:22 PM
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Hey Roger, who are you trying to sound like, Malik Shabazz or Jeremiah Wright?

Rob/HHH/former republican/John E/Dumb Dumb Janet:

A poll from Quinnipiac University, shows Obimbo losing to any Republican and for Congressional races that the Republican beating a Democrat.

But reality and Rob/HHH/John E do not coexist!

See http://hotair.com/archives/2010/07/21/obama-hits-low-in-quinnipiac-approval-rating/
for the latest Quinnipiac Poll (usually a favorite of DNC Swamp journalists), which shows:
1. Lowest approval rating for Obama so far (44%, with 48% disapproving)
2. Obama loses 39-36% to any Republican.
3. Republicans beat Democrats 43%-38% in the generic Congressional ballot.
4. Obama's rating with Independents has tanked.

Look at the statistics. Under Reagan, the unemployment rate kept rising above 10% and didn't start to drop until well into his 3rd year.

These polls don't really mean much right now. Dems should lose a few seats this fall, but the GOP won't get the complete turn around they are looking for. Employment will start getting better and, with no really appealing candidates for the GOP, Obama will win a 2nd term in 2012.

Reagan's first 3 years:
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3

Obama so far:
2009 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.5

Posted by: David J | July 21, 2010 12:31 PM

x

David J, you left two major things out of your post when comparing unemployment figures from the Reagan and Obama Administrations. First, the Reagan Administration was Pro-Business. The Obama White House and the Democratic controlled Congress are not Pro-Business and Growth, but just expansion of Government Programs with not enough money to support them. And Secondly there was a Major Economic Rebound and Recovery from the the double dip recession in 1983 and 1984. The Obama Economic Recoveryso far has been very Feeble at best with No Job Growth. Although most of us out here, whether we are Democrats, Republicans or Independents, want to see a major recovery, so far it has not happened. Things are very tough out there.

The one thing you can't hide behind the numbers are the facts that Reagan was not only the Great Appeaser, with Iran, he was a two-bit actor, that the Rabid Right demagogues, hiding behind the curtain, stuffed platitudes, slogans and meaningless cliches into this B-actor's mouth!! In other words, he was a bum, as a president !! Anyone who thinks otherwise, probably idolized Cheney&Bush and voted for them, twice !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.

Why should he get a pass because the other presidents were not of the same race? Youre and ignorant moron Don.

It is a silly joke, to compare President Obama's 18 months in Office with his predecessors and it is extremely harmful to America and to our President. TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.

Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | July 20, 2010 9:16 PM

Don Fitzgerald

Did you forget your meds again?

Is that the best you underdeveloped cretins have? If so, your going to need a whole lot of luck, and multitudes of lies, in the next elections !! I don't know about the luck, but I sure know you will not have any problems, manufacturing the lies. That is what the Party of No does best!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, LAIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.

PFUTZ,

This is what your blathering sounds like to the rest of us:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cvotwO0Kwo

As one who does hardcore electoral statistics, I can tell you that Obama has the better hand of cards for 2012, no matter how you slice it.

The economy was actually taking another hit in 1936 as FDR firmly whipped Alf Landon 60-40.

In 1964, the economy was sputtering and the south was pissed off over the Civil Rights Act and still, LBJ won a massive landslide, 61-39 over Goldwater.

At this point in the game in 1982, Reagan’s numbers were even a tick lower than Obama’s are now. And Reagan came back to win a 58-42 landslide in 1984.

Bill Clinton’s numbers at this stage of the game in 1994 were under Obama’s, and his health care initiative had FAILED. The GOP of 1994 was also better organized than it is in 2010. And Clinton came back to trounce Bob Dole by 8 points in 1996.

GWB43 does not fit the re-election pattern as well. His popularity numbers were soaring after 9-11 and yet his re-election was a lean win against John Kerry, who (many do not know this fact) got the highest percentage of a losing candidate fighting against an incumbent in the entire history of the Union.

Winning percentage changes:

FDR increased his PV% by 3 points in 1936 over 1932.

Eisenhower increased his PV% by 2.2 points in 1956 over 1952.

We cannot compare Nixon correctly, as he went from a 3 man race in 1968 to a two man race in 1972.

Reagan increased his PV% by 8 points in 1984 over 1980. 1980 had a third party candidate (Anderson), who did get 6.6% of the PV ala Perot in 1996.

Clinton, in 2 three-man races, increased his PV% by 6 points in 1996 over 1992.

GWB43 increased his PV% by 3 points in 2004 over 2000.

FACIT:
Obama is poised to pick up between 3-5 points in 2012 and add 5 to 8 states to his column.

Only 4 times in 114 years has an incumbent been turned out of office, and in 3 of those four occasions, the incumbent was a republican:

Hoover in 1932
Ford in 1976
Carter in 1980
Bush 41 in 1992.

In most cases, the incumbent was re-elected and only in the case of Woodrow Wilson was his re-election win leaner than his initial win.

Many wish to compare Obama to Carter in the hope that he will also be a one term president, but statistically, the comparison to Ronald Reagan fits much better most of the time.

The 1st amendment guarantees us all the right to as much propaganda as we want. But demographic and electoral statistics tell me that the probability of Obama winning a LARGER landslide in 2012 than he won in 2008 is extremely high.

I did a complete statistical analysis to this in late 2007, here is the study.