by Mike Memoli
In a piece on the White House's midterm strategy, Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons noted that in a state like Pennsylvania, Democrats were concerned that the president could be a negative this fall.
"His numbers are low, and I suspect there are going to be areas of Pennsylvania where people are not going to be anxious for him to come and, quite frankly, he's not going to be anxious to come in," Kessler said, pointing to the reelection campaign of Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Murphy in the GOP-heavy Philadelphia suburbs: "Do you think Patrick Murphy wants President Obama to set foot in his district?"
A new Quinnipiac poll released today offers greater statistical evidence to that point.
Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 42 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012. In fact, 41 percent of voters say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate in 2012, while 40 percent say they would vote for Obama. Independent voters say they would go for a Republican 37 - 33 percent.
"When a politician's approval rating is down 13 points among independent voters, that is generally a sign of political vulnerability," said Brown. "The 6-point margin held by those who say President Obama doesn't deserve a second term over those who think he does also should make the White House nervous, especially since Pennsylvania has not voted Republican for president since 1988. Here too, his weakness is among independents, who say 51 - 35 percent he does not deserve a second term."
Despite those numbers for the president, the Democratic Senate candidate in Pennsylvania has pulled even with his GOP opponent. In a survey conducted just before the state primary election, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) trailed former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) 42-40. The new poll showed each candidate receiving 43 percent of the vote, with 12 percent undecided.
Of course, President Obama had endorsed incumbent Arlen Specter (D) over Sestak in that primary race.
Colby Itkowitz has a fuller readout on the Senate race numbers at the Morning Call, as well as a good primer in today's paper updating on the state of the race.
Comments
Although it is way too early to seriously discuss Obama's reelection in 2012 the Pennsylvania Polls on the President's current popularity and the 2010 Midterm Races in the Keystone State are interesting. This could be part of a trend of the GOP making a recovery in the Northeast. It looks like the political pendulum is swinging back to the Republicans after Democratic success in recent elections. If the Republicans make noticeable inroads in the Northeast the big Democratic Majorities in Congress will probably shrink dramatically or may even disappear on election day in November. Only time will tell but news like this must have the Obama White House and the DNC very worried.
Posted by: depot jim | July 14, 2010 12:32 PM
As usual, the Repugs are prematurely dancing in the end zone....
Democrat Joe Sestak ties Repug Pat Toomey in Pa
"Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, a decided underdog who knocked off U.S. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary, has now closed an 8-point gap in the last three months to tie Republican Pat Toomey," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the Senate race remains wide open, since at this point about half of the voters don't know enough about either candidate to form an opinion."
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1475
Posted by: Rob | July 14, 2010 1:30 PM
Rob
As in almost every election polls for individual candidates are a little flaky during the summer vacation. Once the kids are back in school we should start seeing a refinement in the numbers and some of the close races will open up. You can even tell because there are very few political ads running in the media right now. But I know that will change very some.
PS, do you know what the happiest day is for the postal carrier. The day after the election of the president.
Posted by: Crooks_In_ DC | July 14, 2010 6:03 PM
Clown In DC,
The Repugs that you cheerlead for (despite their bloviating and chest thumping) will still be the minority this fall - better start making your excuses up now so you're not left speechless this fall, Sparky.
I can't wait for the political ads this fall.
*Cue up a big picture of the massive oil spill in the Gulf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uC67CqvXME
*Cut away to video of the low IQ goons at the Republican party convention chanting: 'Drill, Baby, Drill'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhvRQyRdVEI
*And Republican Congressmen apologizing to BP.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyxAzdMAn8
Posted by: Rob | July 14, 2010 8:39 PM
Rob
I was just pointing out a pattern that has repeated itself numerous times but you go on with a silly rant straight from the DMC. Which videos do you want of Obama one of the two of him bowing? Or one of the many clips of him lying to the cameras about Obama care? or maybe the body count in Afghanistan? or him calling the police in Connecticut stupid? And that is just a start. Have not even started on his history or his wife. That is right Michelle is no longer off limits if she goes out and campaigns for her husband like she has been recently.
Posted by: Crooks_In_ DC | July 14, 2010 9:27 PM
I can't wait to vote against Murphy in the fall. He lies when he says he is a blue dog. A vote for him is a vote for Pelosi!
Posted by: buckvoter | July 29, 2010 11:51 AM