Poll watch: Dems find glimmers of hope: The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted July 30, 2010 3:30 PM
The Swamp

by Mike Memoli

Democrats are, with appropriate perspective, pointing to a handful of polls this week that they say indicates the political climate is at worst stabilizing, and at best beginning to improve for their Congressional candidates this year.

Consider the following, most offered by the Democrats' Senate campaign arm:
* Two Nevada polls show Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid with a lead over Sharron Angle (though well within the margin of error).
* Alexi Giannoulias leads Rep. Mark Kirk in a Rasmussen poll (again within the margin of error).
* A respected independent pollster found Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) up 5 points over Carly Fiorina (R), while a Democratic pollster had the incumbent's lead as high as 9.
* Sen. Patty Murray (D) has reclaimed a lead over potential GOP opponent Dino Rossi (R), per Rasmussen.

But each side can point to favorable numbers, and Republicans have ammo to rebut claims of a Democratic resurgence.

* In Florida, Marco Rubio (R) still trails party-switcher Charlie Crist (I). But Kendrick Meek (D) continues to fall off the map in a Quinnipiac poll. In fact, Crist now leads Meek among Democratic voters. Democrats seem inclined to think Crist would caucus with them, but it's no given.
* Rep. Joe Sestak (D) continues to lag behind Pat Toomey (R) in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
* And one of the more surprising embattled incumbents is now Sen. Russ Feingold (D), who trails Ron Johnson (R) in another Rasmussen survey.

Most handicappers still project Democratic losses, both in the House and Senate. Still, Democrats are beginning to say they see green shoots. On the House side, Democrats confidently claimed in a memo this week that they won't lose their majority. And one argument why is their confidence in actually picking up several Republican-controlled seats.

One of those is in Illinois, the 10th District seat currently held by Mark Kirk. And an internal poll from that race, obtained by the Swamp, showed Dan Seals (D) with a 46-38 lead over Robert Dold (R). The poll was conducted in late May; though there have been few major developments specific to the race, the national climate remains volatile. But we've seen Illinois races less prone to national trends, given President Obama's consistently strong numbers in his home state.

August is always a critical month in elections, when campaigns have a final chance to establish the narrative before the starting gun really fires after Labor Day. If polling continues to show Democrats competitive, it may give them more confidence that they can make a strong case and hope external factors -- the economy, further resolution of the oil spill, etc -- go their way.

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Comments

How stupid do you have to be to support Barbara Boxer.


Those who survived the San Francisco earthquake said, "Thank God, I'm still alive." But, of course, those who died, their lives will never be the same again.
-- Sen. Barbara Boxer, (D, Calif.)


I hope the Repugs keep dancing in the end zone and pouring champaign on themselves thinking that they're going to win in a landslide this fall. The Repugs will make gains this fall, it would be almost impossible for them not too, seeing as how they got blown out of the water in the last two (06 and 08) elections. But when all is said and done they'll still be the minority party after this falls elections, and they''ll lose all of those gains in 2012 because they don't have any new ideas (tax cuts for the richest 2%, Big Oil, Wall Street and continued warmongering etc etc)


Democrats Surge in Generic Congressional Ballot


Getting things done matters, including electorally. A just-released Gallup poll now gives Democrats a 6-point lead among registered voters in the generic Congressional ballot. With Wall Street reform awaiting the signature of the President, the American people are beginning to pay attention, and they are starting to realize that this election is a choice: A choice between a party that wants to move forward and make progress - however imperfectly - and a party that has made a political decision to obstruct everything.


"The Democrats' six-point advantage in Gallup Daily interviewing from July 12-18 represents the first statistically significant lead for that party's candidates since Gallup began weekly tracking of this measure in March. [MOE +/- 3 percentage points. Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.] "


http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/Democrats-Jump-Six-Point-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx?s=tp


Numerous other achievements of this Democratic Congress and President Obama have not gone unnoticed. The utter lack of any coherent Republican agenda is hurting them. But more importantly, Democrats are succeeding in making the election in November a choice between the Democratic and Republican agendas, rather than a "throw the incumbents out" type of reactionary election.



"Getting things done matters, including electorally. A just-released...etc"
Posted by: Rob | July 30, 2010 4:13 PM
--------------------------------------
.
'Rob, do you knoe eaht the word plagiarism means? here is the original puff-piece from DailyKos. Given the 12th grade language skills. it was obviously not written by you--
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/7/19/215118/863
.
Everyone, here's a tip about 'Rob' The Basement Troll -- Every time he posts writing that is coherent and grammatically correct, you can bet the ranch that he stole it.
.


No, we'll leave that " Mission Accomplished! " for the Cheney&Bush crowd. They need something to cling to!! We, Democrats, will continue to work to get all of America back to work, creating jobs, that you know who, killed, in the two previous administrations !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


Posted by: Free to Watch the Liberal's Summer Meltdown | July 30, 2010 3:57 PM
**********************


Free to Watch Cartoons,


How stupid do you have to be to support Carly Fiorina? I'd say you have to be about as stupid as you are, Slick.


Carly Fiorina and Hewlett-Packard
Carly Fiorina claims that her experience as CEO of one of America's largest corporations qualifies her to be a United States Senator. But her track record at HP was nothing to be proud of.


Fiorina Destroyed Shareholder Value
During her tenure at HP, the company's stock price fell from $52 per share to $21 per share - a loss of 60%, costing shareholds billions of dollars.


Fiorina Eliminated Jobs
As part of HP's merger with Compaq, she laid off an estimated 15,000 employees... on top of the thousands of HP employees eliminated prior to the merger.


Fiorina's Golden Parachute
When forced out of her position by the HP board of directors in February, 2005, Fiorina walked away with a $21 million severance package.


More here:
http://www.carly-fiorina.com/



I saw Dan Seals in person at my town's 4th of July parade this year. He came walking right towards me but luckliy I used my kids as a shield from him wanting to shake my hand.
Robert Dold needless to say will get my vote.


This afternoon on the moneywatch program on MSNBC, a chartist (as we used to call them) said market trends predict changes of the party in power in the off year elections accurately about 79% of the time


And he concluded: this year, don't look for any change in the Congressional leadership.


But, he added, there might be a nice end-of-year rally....


PFUTZ,

Leave "Mission Accomplished" to President Bush and Vice-President Cheney.

The Obama Regime can use "Mission SNAFUed, Sorry America".

Ornery,

There will be a real nice market rally if the GOP takes back the House in November. See 1994 for the example.


Posted by: Just sayin' | July 30, 2010 5:01 PM
*********************


Swamp Troll,


I write at a lot of different places. If I use it it's because I wrote it. I'm you and your sock-puppets worst nightmare. Just sayin.



Rob, good thing you can cut and paste. Too bad that it makes your other "writings" stand out a coming from the mind of someone that's stuck in mommy's basement scouring the Daily Kos for the DNC's postings.


By the way plagiarism doesn't qualify you for anything...well, unless your are Joe Biden.


I think Carly was right to buy out the competitor Compaq; They sucked anyway. And that is why HP lost money. It was a race to the bottom of quality. With one major computer maker, HP concentrated on better quality, instead of making cheap, crappy computers.

Viola, the company became a sucess through competition. Barbara Boxer has never even tried, never failed. You now, you can't learn anything unless you try. Sometimes you win, sometimes you fail. A lifelong politician, never learns anything.

Fire Barbara (call me senator) Boxer.


Not very long after the '08 elections, polling began to began show Democratic fortunes tanking. The electoral good will began to evaporate after the Pork laden 'Stimulus' bill failed to stimulate, followed by the passage of the Health Care bill that nobody in America (including the legislators who voted for it) understands.
.
So it's no surprise that the recent public support for the Democrats (solid as a marshmallow to begin with) has disappeared. Spending bales of taxpayers' money solved nothing; unemployment is unimproved; the economy is stagnant; Bush's war has become Obama's war; life has gotten worse.
.
Naturally the polls have been reflecting the lack of Hope and Change.
.
So the Democrats have adopted the tack of overstating resurging Republican strength. That way they will claim anything less than a massive Republican landslide as a sort of moral victory. (A cold comfort, IMO, but that's the best they can hope for.)
.
However, realistic people have always thought that a GOP House majority come November was a long shot -- possible, but unlikely. Nevertheless Democratic strength will be very seriously eroded, to the point where they will no longer ride rough-shod over the republic.
.


Hey man! pass some of that stuck around. The only polls
that matter are the ones in
November. And Reid and Boxer
are toast.


Teabagger " patriots " unmasked as republicons. When all else fails, rebrand yourselves:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Tea-Parties-are-Unmasked-a-by-Steven-Leser-100717-629.html

Sort of like BP rebranding itself as Amoco, and speaking of BP, republicons defend BP:

http://www.bprepublicans.com/page/content/bprepublicans

Meanwhile, republicons defeat funding for 911 health care:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/29/anthony-weiner-911-bill-ballistic_n_664568.html

and fail in their mission to filibuster unemployment benefits for the jobless:

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/07/20/gop-filibuster-on-unemployment-benefits-defeated-on-fourth-attem/

Vote republicon ? No thanx


I think it wonderful just how promptly the DNC Swamp responds when the Democratic Party send them a press release.
The loyalty of The Swamp writers to the Democrats is worthy of a better cause.


dear conservativemaster....

i saw bob dold at my hometown parade this year AND dan seals.

so?

with seals we know who the guy is -- he's already run twice before and his positions and ideas have held steady. the guy doesn't stick his finger to the wind to guess what he should say to pander to voters.

not sure if you've been paying attention in the 10th or not but bob dold keeps telling different groups different things.

he got the right-wing eagle forum endorsement and the illinois and lake county right to life endorsements.

he told the palatine tea party that he's more conservative than he can let on and he told the chicago republican group that he's no mark kirk (ie, more conservative than kirk).

but his radio ad goes on and on that he's some sort of "moderate"? puh-leez.

and just last week dold put up a post saying he supported the right-wing "roadmap for america" proposed by congressman paul ryan (gop-wisconsin) last spring.

conservative policy gurus studied that plan and noted it would devalue social security and medicare by converting them to vouchers which **lose** value over time.

the proposal also called for INCREASING middle class taxes in order to CUT taxes for literally the top 1% wealthiest of the wealthy billionaires. oh, and this conservative plan also loaded another $2 trillion with a T in debt.

in fact, this "roadmap" plan was so conservative not even john boehner supported it.

but true to form after declaring he supported it bob dold tried to delete the post when some bloggers and reporters started asking about it.

needless to say i'll be voting for dan seals. i may not agree with him 100% but at least seals picks a principled stand and sticks with it instead of pandering around like bob dold.


"I write at a lot of different places. If I use it it's because I wrote it."
Posted by: Rob | July 30, 2010 7:03 PM
.
Oh "Rob", do you really think anybody buys that? It's very easy to see what you've actually written and what you've stolen. If it's poorly written (ie, incoherent; bad grammar; a pastiche of threadbare slogans and insults) it came from your "mind". If the thoughts are organized and the grammar is correct, then it's something you've stolen.
.
Let's look at your Copy&Paste from July 30, 2010 4:13 PM as an example:
.
Paragraph one is pure "Rob". It's your usual stupid football metaphor tacked on to your usual string of bumper sticker slogans. It hardly qualifies as writing at all.
.
Contrast that with the following passage that you stole. In Paragraphs 2 & 3 the writing is at least coherent and evinces a 12th grade grasp of language skills that you couldn't muster if your life depended on it.
.
Copying and pasting other people's thoughts without attribution is plagiarism, "Rob". Lying about it when you're called out on it just makes you look more pathetic.
.


Rob's most recent plagiarism came from DailyKos, from a regular there with the postname 'deaniac83' -- http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/7/19/215118/863
.
deaniac83's has a link to his personal blog on his DailyKos page. If you go there you'll learn that his name is Spandan Chakrabarti. He says: 'I am based in Silicon Valley, California; so Bay Area and California state issues may sometimes be of interest'.
.
I happen to know Rob's real name. It's not Spandan Chakrabarti. His first name really is Rob(ert) and I won't publish his last name it's but it's something very WASPy. (I will not blow anybody's anonymity here, even tho Rob has done that to other Swamp posters in the past and doesn't deserve that courtesy.)
.
I also happen to know that Rob is based in Illinois, In the Chicago Metro area, not Silicon Valley, CA.
.
So what's next Rob? Are you going to lie about serving in the military too? Oh wait...you've done that already.
.


The dems record of having control of Congress:

Jan, 2007 - Unemployment 5%, DJIA over 12,000, and the national debt just over $8.5 Trillion

3 1/2 years later -

Aug, 2010 - Unemployment 9.5%, DJIA - 10,465, and the national debt at $13.3 Trillion

Nice job Harry and Nancy.

Trickled On Rob,

Let me know where else you post, and under what name, so I can get more laughs.


Overstepping: Part Two--Lame Ducks and Amnesty

You’ll never go broke betting on the treachery and deceitfulness of politicians.

We saw a classic example last week with the unemployment extension which Democrats could have passed on their own but instead insisted on a two-thirds vote rather than a simple majority in order to embarrass the Republicans three months before the elections.

It lost, as per the Dem plan.

Democrats seem to be plotting more treacherous shenanigans with regard to the amnesty for illegals issue, something Obama and his storm troopers would love to grant in order to garner millions more votes when amnesty is followed by citizenship. And what better time could there be to pull off that scam than during a lame duck session following November 2nd should the Democrats lose the House?

Charles Krauthammer suggests that ousted and retiring Dems, with nothing to lose and no backlash to face, could use those 2 1/2 months before the 112th congress convenes in January to foist all kinds of ideologically controversial laws on the American people before they vacate the premises . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=1817


Swamp Troll,


I write at a lot of different places. If I use it it's because I wrote it. I'm you and your sock-puppets worst nightmare. Just sayin.


Posted by: Rob | July 30, 2010 7:03 PM


Sure Rob, sure. You can't even "write" a decent sentence.


Unrational thinker, Bob Dold puts his finger to the wind? Sorry, not the case.
I've been at countless Bob Dold events and he pretty much says the same thing. His message has been about jobs, taxes, spending and the economy. He is a fiscal conservative and somewhat of a moderate socially.

Anyway, in his third try, Dan Seals still does not live in the 10th Congressional District.
And he says the same thing now as when he did six years ago? That is quite the hoot! Dan Seals is now trying to sound a friend of the small businessman, a fiscal conservative himself. His past rhetoric has been just the opposite.
I guess when you've failed twice already, change the rhetoric and hope you fool enough dimwits to vote for you. That is the Seals strategy.

I'll take the guy who knows how to run a business, who knows how to manage a budget, who knows how to get people working and knows what really matters in life. The guy who knows all of that is named Bob Dold.


So Rob, since you've been outed as a slumming plagiarist, why don't you take advantage of being unemployed and go to school? (I would say go back to school, but I don't think that really applies to you) anyway, since you are living in mommy's basement you can receive federal financial aid to go to college and actually learn something.

Rob, DO NOT PLAGIARIZE. They will kick your little behind out; and you will be stuck in mommy's basement forever. This is you chance...


Now, I realize that up to 95% of what you learn will be leftist propaganda, depending on what major you study under, for instance: art, social studies, political science, psychology, and journalism. You can worship Che Guevara, like all the other kids.


But really, since you are so interested in the economy and how Obama can turn it around, (since it's all Bush's fault) you should go for it! I'm sure that in no time at all we will all be reading your theory on how to grow the economy, with many new cutting edge ideas. Let me know when you graduate, I'll send you a graduation bear.


I know the real name of Rob. It is not spandan Chakrabarti. His name is really Rob (ERT) and I will not publish his last name is, but it is something very (I will not jump the anonymity of anyone here, even though Rob has done to other posters marshes in the past and does not deserve that courtesy.


The fat lady hasnt sung yet so dont count your chickens before they're hatched.


GOP THEFT BY DECEPTION AXIS OF EVIL POST BUSH CHENEY FIELDING GONZALES with a (s) and not "Z" DOERS Speak! Repeal the 14th Amendment! My mama's mamma was my mamma mama's illegal dauhter so that means my daughters mother, mother, mother was illegal so that means it's off to see the GOP WIZARD! WIZARD WIZARD OF TEA PARTY OZ! Professor Kobach, nonbrown skin, brown eyes, trying to go through the Constitutional GOP Theft by Deception BACKDOOR! He comes those "chickens coming home to roost" in the SB1070 Kyl Country! He comes those "chickens coming home to roost" in Lindsey Grahams town! So what if he "lusts" for mankind and just not womankind alike! He comes too much love with those "OB GYNS" We're off to see the Wizard! WIZARD WIZARD GOP TEA PARTY OZ! Change the Constitution! It was just meant for slaves! Just the REAL ID! Just not those born before 1964! Stop the press! Sarah is the EVE in EEVS! The GOP is the REAL ID! Stop the press! We're just to "racist" too fail! Stop the press! Stop! Charlie! Stop! Maxine! They don't qualify! Just us! Just NEO NAZI GOP TEA PARTY us! It's Kyl Country! It's McCain Country! It's the GOP While WALIKING TALKING SB1070 hispanic, latino, mexican, or black african american alike! Papers Please! NO DNA ! No America for you GOP Super TWO for ONE Super Tuesday. 3/5th for you! 3/5th for you too! Stop the press! We're too "RACIST" too fail! We heard the voice! Catherine Harris head the voices! George heard the voices! We do too! Keep the GOP "racist" Cars coming! They're trying to go through the 14th Amendment backdoor! All Person(s)! They meant slaves! Black people! Born before 1964 who don't "QUALIFY" for Sarah's Smile or the REAL ID!


Although these polls are fun to look at and discuss among political and news junkies, it is still very early in the election game. And traditionally election campaigning really does not get started until after Labor Day. The election polls in late September and October will be more meaningful on where things are going.


Enjoy those "glimmers", Dems, because that's all you're going to get.


Q: "How stupid do you have to be to support Barbara Boxer."


A: Pretty damned stupid.


I doubt that Seals was happy about these results, since this poll was taken in May, at a time when Dold had minimal name ID. Given that advantage, Seals had to be highly disappointed at that 8% margin; probably why Seals did not release the results until 3 months later. After all, Seals' early polls had him up 55% during the Democratic Primary, and he only won by less than 1000 votes. Given the lethargy surrounding Seals' campaign this time around compared to last, he must be desperate for a quick hit of positive news. Ultimately, the trend does not look good for Dan Seals's campaign.


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