by Mike Memoli
The Cook Political Report, a respected non-partisan handicapper, has revised its House elections forecast to show the GOP on the verge of winning enough seats to reclaim the majority.
New rankings today in 10 seats held by Democrats all favor Republicans, with seven moving into the "Toss Up" category. That includes Illinois Rep. Debbie Halvorson's (D) 11th District seat, which had been classified as "Lean Democrat."
The new Cook projection is for a Republican net gain of between 35 and 45 seats, up from a 32 to 42 seat range. Republicans need to win a net of 39 seats to become the majority party again for the first time since 2007.
Overall, 40 seats are ranked as "Toss Up" races, 37 of which are held by Democrats today.
"While this would imply an advantage for Democrats, given the continuous erosion we have seen in dozens of contests so far this cycle, races shifting from Solid and Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic and Toss Up, we would be surprised if there was not more movement over the 78 days from now until Election Day," writes David Wasserman, Cook's House race analyst.
The analysis comes as a new Gallup tracking poll shows Republicans hitting the 50 percent mark for the first time in a generic ballot test. If the election were held today, half of all voters would pick a Republican candidate, while 43 percent would choose the Democratic candidate. From the Gallup analysis:
In addition to -- or perhaps because of -- increasing disappointment with the president, Republicans owe their renewed strength in August to two factors: greater parity with the Democrats in Americans' political affiliation and slightly more support for Republican congressional candidates from independent voters.
But President Obama continues to hammer the GOP for a policy of obstruction, saying again today in Washington that they would return to the failed policies of his predecessor.
"You remember our slogan during the campaign, 'Yes, we can'? Their slogan is, 'No, we can't.'" Obama said at a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Seattle.





Comments
It would be nearly immpossible for the Repugs not to win some seats this fall, they haven't won a significant election in six years. I hope the Repugs keep beating their chests with overconfidence while failing to notice that Americans still hate them.
Poll: Americans More Unhappy With Republicans Than Democrats:
http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/2010/08/12/poll-americans-unhappy-with-dems-way-more-unhappy-with-gop/
Posted by: Rob | August 17, 2010 6:12 PM
"Jobs, jobs, jobs and it's the economy stupid"
The Democrats have failed to heed the words of James Carville and are going to suffer as they should.
Obama does not care as he is ridding the Democratic party of the Blue Dogs.
Posted by: Pat H | August 17, 2010 6:46 PM
Rube, Rube, Rube, the Little Ignorant Lefty Loon: it only has been two election cycles in which the Republicans haven't won. Anyway, the fact that really in just one election cycle the nation is yelling a BIG F-U to the Demoncrats speaks volumes.
Now, hopefully with this news, or come Nov. 3, it will lead you to do what is best for mankind.
Posted by: John D | August 17, 2010 7:17 PM
GOP GENERATIONAL THEFT BY DECEPTION AXIS OF EVIL DOERS SPEAK! Heardee! Heardee! Get your popcorn! We're coming back! We're coming back! It was always about "civil rights." It was always about 3/5th for you! 3/5th for you too! Prophet Beck told us so! Crossovers, by day, and useful GOP idiots by day! Come to thee! Come to thee! We're back! 5.7 Trillion Dollars later and a 21st Century Depression, double dip Mortgage Recession, double dip economic Recession! We're back! Keep the TEA PARTAYS coming! Keep the TEA PARTAYS coming! It was always about theft! It was always about "portal domination." It was always about caged, provisional suppressed ballot voters! Heardee! Heardee! Get your popcorn and the AZPOST Video, starring the GOP Extremist GASTAPO coming to a "cultural center" near you! Vote for us! Vote for us! Oh those still stuck in the Bush/Cheney 108th, 109th Suspension of Disbelief! It never happened! What collapsed! Who eavesdropped and wiretapped you! YOU LIE! YOU LIE, brown skin, Harvard Professors, attempting go through the backdoor of their America. We're coming back! Miss us now! Miss George Bush now! Get your popcorn! It's Obama's fault! It's Obama's fault! He's a socialist! He's a muslim! He's a communist! Sarah told us so! She's the EVE in EEVS! See her smile! Her lips, her thighs, her eyes, got all of us so hypnotized! She Lady Liberty! Can't you see! We're coming back! Because we left 20 million "z" immigrants on the table and that's all we need to fully "consolidate" you unto the GOP! Ya no GOP American Born tatoo having man, woman, or child! We're back! Vote for us! Vote for us!
Posted by: Roger Morris | August 17, 2010 7:33 PM
The good citizens of the Illinois 11th are coming around to Adam Kinzinger as opposed to the Nancy's little sock-puppet Debbie, who cut her teeth as one of the yes-gals for the convicted governor Blago.
Posted by: Terry | August 17, 2010 7:46 PM
O, well. I guess we won't be having that Truth Commission.....
Posted by: ornery | August 17, 2010 8:56 PM
Take a look at any of the recent election results exit polls
What's happening isn't that America is starting to re-like the Republicans. What's happening is that everyone who voted Republican in 08 is voting Republican this time, the only difference is that a bunch of the people who voted Democrat last time aren't turning up this time.
Democrats demobilized their base.
Posted by: Soni | August 18, 2010 5:31 AM
Its because democrats don't stand up for their own principles and get pushed around too much. It also helps to have a "news" channel like Fox peddle your talking points for free.
Posted by: Soul | August 18, 2010 5:32 AM
Who would have thought that the Democrats' strategy--of acting just like Republicans--could possibly fail?
Posted by: Perry Logan | August 18, 2010 8:35 AM
Does it make any difference? What the heck, we have the best government, money can buy!! Thanks to the Supreme Court Hacks!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, IL | August 18, 2010 8:47 AM
History and the Current Issues are on the republicans side in 2010. The Out of Power Party (GOP this year) historically makes gains in off ear elections. The the issues (Bad Economy) hurt the Democrats. Plus in Illinois elections political corruption do not help the Democrats. There is a good possibility that the retrial of Blago will be going on during the Political Campaign Season in September and October. But the big issue will be the Economy and
Unemployment. The so-called economic recovery, no matter how feeble, seems to be stalling. And the Jobs picture seems to be getting worse. Although as an Executive Recruiter I did see a little pickup in June and part of July, that job recovery seems to have ended and things are getting worse again. As one famous Democratic Political Strategist once said "It is the Economy Stupid." America has always voted its wallets and if things do not pick up I do not see how a bad and struggling Economy and Job Market are going to help the In Party (Democrats). The big question in November will be how big the Republican victory will be.
Posted by: depot jim | August 18, 2010 9:27 AM
Sounds like rob is a big promoter of the party of hate, deception and lies, the democrats. Just listen to his hate filled diatribes.
I guess he's seeing the light of day and is turning up the rhetoric and fear - because he couldn't argue on the facts about obama, he knows it'd be a losing arguement.
Bipartisianship, transparency, reading the bills before voting them etc. all lies. The "accomplishments" of this adminstration are already being seen as failures, and just wait until the tax increases to pay for them hit.
When the country said they wanted change, I doubt they wanted more debt, more corruption, more angry rhetoric, more childish games of blaming others. obama's fall will be as historic and much more entertaining than his rise! Change for the better is coming in November - then we'll see the lame duck campaigner in chief whine, cry and throw tantrums.
Even obama knows it, he can't run on his record - so he's running on fear mongering and lies - I guess it's the liberal idea of change is to make things worse.
Posted by: worsethanbefore | August 18, 2010 10:20 AM
Its because democrats don't stand up for their own principles and get pushed around too much. It also helps to have a "news" channel like Fox peddle your talking points for free.
Posted by: Soul | August 18, 2010 5:32 AM
Soul, have you ever heard of MSNBC? And basically CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC as well as most local TV news shows and newspapers peddle the DNC line all the time anyway.
Posted by: John D | August 18, 2010 11:01 AM
The Republicans have not offered any policy. Nothing. Well, at least nothing that hasn't been proven not to work. As you can see from the posts, only fear mongering and name calling. I mean, even worsethanbefore starts in on Rob for hate filled comments. Yeah, lots of hate filled comments by saying that the Reps are going to gain seats. It is pathetic. It is too bad that a lot of America will vote against their own self and our national interests by voting Republican.
Can anybody actually tell me what the Republican plan is? All I can tell is that it is to lower taxes. And everyone know that Trickle Down does not work. There is no empiric evidence for it. Actually, all evidence points against it.
Please tell me the plan. Oh wait, it is just do the opposite of Obama. Bravo.
Posted by: ugggh | August 18, 2010 11:22 AM
"Who would have thought that the Democrats' strategy--of acting just like Republicans--could possibly fail?"
Posted by: Perry Logan | August 18, 2010 8:35 AM
********
Sad to say I have to agree with Perry. The dems may move faster and with more arrogance but both parties have abandoned the Constitution and our founding principles.
While out of power the repubs SAY they oppose the policies that are destroying America, but will they actually act differently if we vote them in?
Abandon your party loyalties folks. Look for any candidate that exhibits some level of honesty and love for our country. Then hold his/her feet to the fire every day. It's all we have left.
Posted by: Bye Bye MSM | August 18, 2010 11:41 AM
And Gallup reports that Republicans have a 7% lead (50%-43%) in their generic Congressional ballot--the largest Republican lead they've ever had.
Posted by: Equal time, injecting facts | August 18, 2010 12:04 PM
Don't care; the Congress is a useless body as long as the Senate is involved.
Posted by: Tim | August 18, 2010 12:57 PM
Adam Kinzinger's positions are the real toss up. He's anti labor, he supports trade policies that promote shipping jobs to China, and he's on the verge of "anti-senior" with his history of raising rates of seniors on a fixed income and for supporting raising the retirement age for social security. Honestly Adam Kinzinger?! www.HonestlyAdam.com
Posted by: Honestly Adam | August 19, 2010 1:47 AM
Amerika, this doesn’t have to be complicated. How much freedom, professional, vocational, and economic opportunity do you need to give up to appease the Socialists?
Do you see yourself in position to send your kids to college or even two-week summer camp? Can you afford a mortgage or to ever be retired? Have the democrats not loaded you up with enough debt, new obligations, and new laws that will have consequences that no one can really define.
At the first of the year we will get to see who is rich and who is not when the higher tax rates hit. Corporations that do know how to survive recessions do not risk their viability on “Back To The Future” sidebars. Why should you? Is this bus headed anywhere that u really need to go?
U have your Libertarians (0.4% to 2.4% of the vote they get no matter what), your Green Party people, your honest Socialists, the socialist democrats, and the Republicans. The choices may be less than ideal, but u gotta choose one. Will u have seen, or had, enough?
Posted by: Django - N Rotational Exile | August 19, 2010 2:21 PM
Honest Adam - what's Debbie's record - voted for the Stimulus, is for the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, voted for BOCare, cap and tax, etc...
Posted by: Terry | August 19, 2010 7:18 PM