Fla. Dems winning the Senate battle, but losing the war?

by Mike Memoli

When Kendrick Meek's Senate campaign in Florida appeared to be slipping behind an unexpected and well-funded Democratic entrant, the national cavalry came rushing in on his behalf. Former President Clinton campaigned with him across south Florida. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recorded robo-calls. And President Obama praised him at a party fundraiser and later joined Meek for an unscheduled photo op on South Beach.

And yet, polling seems to indicate that Republicans are far likelier to hold on to the seat if Meek is victorious tonight over billionaire real estate mogul Jeff Greene. What gives?

A new survey today from Democratic-affiliated pollster Public Policy Polling offers some insight into why, and it has everything to do with support for the independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist.

With Greene as the Democratic nominee, Crist gets an astounding 48 percent of the Democratic vote while just one-in-four back Greene in a hypothetical November matchup. If Meek is the nominee, he narrowly edges Crist among Democrats, 39-38 percent.

With Greene as the nominee, Rubio leads Crist 37-36 among likely voters, but with Meek as the Democratic nominee, Rubio leads the field with 40 percent, while Crist gets 32 percent and Meek just 17 percent.

Other polls indicate a similar breakdown, with Crist either ahead or running far stronger with the weaker Greene as the Democratic standard bearer.

Crist has not yet indicated how he'd affiliate himself in the Senate if elected, usually saying simply that he'd "caucus with the people." But Senate rules and procedure would render him with little power if he did not pick one of the major parties to align with; the two other independents in the Senate, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both caucus with Democrats.

Democrats seem somewhat confident that Crist would be friendlier to them in the Senate, particularly if they hold on to their majority in the new Congress. But party heavyweights still have backed Meek even though the polls indicate he is a serious underdog. Some believe that is because the party can ill-afford to turn its back on one of its few prominent African American statewide candidates.

Meek is now favored to win today's vote, owing to that late support from party leaders and also a flood of negative press about his opponent. With more than two months until the general election, he does still have time to change the dynamic. But in the short term it seems that Democrats are in a weaker position as they nominate their stronger candidate.