Upset of upsets: Miller leads Murkowski

by Mike Memoli

Sarah Palin's biggest political victory this year could come in her home state, where her endorsed candidate for Senate holds a surprising lead over incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska Republican Senate primary.

With all but nine of the states precincts reporting, attorney Joe Miller, a virtual unknown until Palin endorsed his candidacy in June, led Murkowski by 1,960 votes. The final result, however, may not be known for weeks.

On Twitter, Palin called it a potential "miracle on ice."

"Keeping fingers crossed, powder dry, prayers upward," she wrote online.

Murkowski, appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father and elected to a full term in 2004, held a substantial financial advantage and the traditional benefits of incumbency in the race, serving as ranking member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

But Miller enjoyed support not just from Palin but former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee and the Tea Party Express group, which helped boost another relative unknown, Sharron Angle, to the GOP nomination for Senate in Nevada.

During the campaign, Miller had made the case Murkowski's voting record in Washington belied the conservative image she portrayed in Alaska. Though the remote state has historically been dependent on federal resources, Miller argued that the growing national debt showed the need for change.

"It's a new political era in Alaska," he said in an interview last week. "We depend on federal government transfers, and if the federal government goes bankrupt, Alaska will be the most harmed."

The final result may hinge on thousands of absentee ballots that won't be counted until next week at the earliest. According to the Anchorage Daily News, the state elections division had received 16,000 requests for absentee ballots, 7,600 of which had been returned by Monday night.

In 2008, Rep. Don Young's (R) narrow victory in the state's Congressional primary took more than three weeks to be certified. In the general election that November, incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens' (R) initial lead of 3,000 votes disappeared as late ballots trickled in from across the state.

If Miller's lead holds, Murkowski would become the third incumbent senator whose re-election effort did not live past the primary. Pennsylvania Democrats rejected Sen. Arlen Specter in May after he switched parites; Utah Sen. Bob Bennett failed to even qualify for the ballot at the state Republican convention.

Scott McAdams, mayor of the town of Sitka, won the Democratic Senate nomination.

Palin had not actively campaigned with Miller, but posted support on Facebook and Twitter, and recorded a late telephone message on his behalf.

"He's got the backbone to confront Obama's radical agenda. By contrast, Lisa Murkowski has voted with the Democrats more than any Republican up for re-election this year," she said.

In 2006, Palin defeated Murkowski's father, Frank, in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Miller may also have benefited from a measure on the ballot Tuesday requiring parental notification when individuals age 17 or younger seek an abortion. Ballot Measure 2 passed with 55 percent of the vote after combined spending of $1 million by opposing sides of the debate.