by Frank James

This is something you don't see everyday, a U.S. secretary of state playing piano for Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace. It appears Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice decided to end her final trip to Britain as the U.S.'s top envoy with a crescendo.

I'm pretty certain we won't be seeing the next secretary of state, Sen. Hillary Clinton, concertizing for the Queen though, maybe, if her husband brings his saxophone...

Does anyone know why the Queen carries a pocketbook when she's in her own home?

(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

by Frank James

What message should we take away from President-elect Barack Obama's choices for his national-security team?

One is that his presidency will be far different than the past eight years. By his choices, he's rebuking the presidential management style of President Bush who didn't really enjoy the to and fro of heated Washington policy disagreements.

Of course, Bush's approach was pretty much a rebuke of his predecessor Bill Clinton's college-seminar style of policy debate which was seen as undisciplined by the Bush people.

Today, Obama sent the message that he can handle disagreement and in fact welcomes it, so long as everyone knows at the end of the day, he's the guy who's running the place, who ultimately sets the direction.

At his press conference today, he said:

... I assembled this team because I'm a strong believer in strong personalities and strong opinions. I think that's how the best decisions are made. One of the dangers in a White House, based on my reading of history, is that you get wrapped up in groupthink and everybody agrees with everything and there's no discussion and there are no dissenting views. So I'm going to be welcoming a vigorous debate inside the White House.

But understand, I will be setting policy as president. I will be responsible for the vision that this team carries out, and I expect them to implement that vision once decisions are made.

by Frank James

New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, raises an important question about the possibility that President-elect Barack Obama could name Sen. Hillary Clinton as his secretary of state.

Friedman questions whether the relationship between Obama and Clinton can become so close that Clinton would be viewed by foreign leaders as speaking for Obama, of having his full backing, when she enunciates policy, or if there would always be some doubt about that.

My question is whether a President Obama and a Secretary of State Clinton, given all that has gone down between them and their staffs, can have that kind of relationship, particularly with Mrs. Clinton always thinking four to eight years ahead, and the possibility that she may run again for the presidency. I just don't know.

When it comes to appointing a secretary of state, you do not want a team of rivals.

That's the rub. To be effective, a secretary of state can't be thought to be freelancing or have an agenda other than that of the president's. If nothing else, it prevents confusion and the kind of misunderstanding that can literally prove deadly to someone.

A successful secretary of state almost needs to be a president's alter ego or right hand, as James Baker was to the first President Bush or Madeleine Albright was to President Bill Clinton, knowing what the president wants to accomplish and doing it. Because of the decline in U.S. standing abroad and the challenges of terrorism, Iraq and Afghanistan, among others, there's little margin for error or infighting.

Is it possible for Clinton to be throw herself completely into the task of making Obama's foreign policy a success is the key question before Obama right now in these days before he makes his choice for the State Department officially known.

by Frank James

Former President Bill Clinton is reportedly willing to accept limits on his charitable and money-making activities if that will clear the way for President-elect Sen. Barack Obama to nominate Hillary Clinton as secretary of state.

As the Associated Press reports:

CHICAGO (AP) Former President Bill Clinton has offered several concessions to help Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, his wife, become secretary of state, people familiar with President-elect Barack Obama's transition vetting process said Wednesday.

Clinton has agreed to release the names of several major donors to his charitable foundation and will submit future foundation activities and paid speeches to a strict ethics review, said Democrats knowledgeable about the discussions.

by Frank James

If you're President-elect Barack Obama and you're looking for a good excuse not to appoint Sen. Hillary Clinton to your cabinet, former President Bill Clinton is a godsend.

The Obama campaign has reportedly been spending time vetting the New York senator before any offer of a cabinet post, presumably Secretary of State, is made.

As part of the vet, Obama's transition team is attempting a full scrub of the former president's business dealings. But evidently, it's rough going.

As the Politico reports:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is President-elect Obama's first choice for secretary of State but his aides are becoming exasperated by the Clinton camp's pokey response to demands for extensive information about former President Bill Clinton's finances, according to numerous Democrats involved in the process.

"The sense among the no-drama Obama world is: This is well on its way to winning best Oscar for drama," said one well-connected Democratic official.

by Frank James

Being that it's Armistice Day, it seems like perfect timing for Politico's piece on the complicated, uneasy truce between the Obamas and their team and the Clintons and their people. Definitely a clash of personalities between the worlds of No-Drama Obama and All-Drama Bubba and Hillary.

A lot of it comes down to money which, as we all know, has ruined many a good relationship. Evidently, the Clinton people would like to see a lot more help from Obama in retiring the huge campaign debt she ran up trying to destroy Obama.

As Politico reports:

These tensions have created a somewhat schizoid relationship between Clinton and the Obamas - warm on personal matters, warier on political ones, and downright frosty on the still-unresolved issue of Clinton's mountainous campaign debt, which Barack Obama had pledged to help reduce.

Since the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton headlined about three dozen rallies and fundraisers - working rope-lines where well-wishers often lamented her exit from the race.

by Mark Silva

Hillary Clinton sat down with her friends at FOX and Friends this morning and conceded, just between friends, of course, that the chances she will run for president again are:

"Probably close to zero."

In a talk with FOX & Friends' Gretchen Carlson, the former first lady and erstwhile frontrunner for the Democratic Party's 2008 presidential nomination spoke about sexism on the campaign trail: "If you are a woman in a high enough, visible enough position, some of that's going to happen."

On the campaign of her fellow senator and Republican nominee for president, John McCain: "I think Senator McCain's campaign has really lost its way... They're just so out of touch with what the American people are worried about."

(That would be the Obama campaign message, which Clinton has been promoting since her own narrow defeat to the senator from Illinois.)

On her own chances of becoming speaker of the Democratic-run House: "Oh, probably zero. I'm not seeking any other position except for being the best senator for New York that I can be."

by James Oliphant

This is the reboot?

As he has tumbled in the polls, John McCain and his campaign have been looking for a way to jump-start his presidential bid. As noted below, new polls show that McCain's scorched-earth approach last week attacking Barack Obama's character and judgment left him in worse shape than before.

As a result, the Republican has apparently turned to a new source of inspiration: Hillary Clinton.

It appears he has decided to take a page out of Clinton's late-game approach in the Democratic primaries, when, she, too, ultimately made the decision that attacking Obama was doing her more harm than good. In the spring, Clinton decided to chase swing-state, working-class votes by reinventing herself into a shot-and-beer woman-of-the-people, a "fighter" for America.

McCain seems to have locked in on that. In speech in Virginia Monday, McCain repeatedly invoked the image of boxing his way back to the top.

"I will fight to take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it," McCain said at a rally in Virginia Beach.

He said he would "fight for a new direction for our country" and "fight for what's right for America."

Here's what Clinton told a crowd last May in Indiana:

"We need a president who's a fighter again," Clinton said at a rally on Thursday, adding that the next president must understand what it is like to "get knocked down and get back up. That's the story of America, right?"

Well, McCain could do worse. If you'll remember, Clinton's newfound embrace of the pugilistic arts helped her swamp Obama in a states like Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

I don't suppose Clinton or anyone else has bothered to trademark "fighter?" It's not like super-heroes, I guess. If someone calls himself "Daredevil" or "The Flash" then every other hero has to back off.

And somehow, some way, it always has to come back to the Clintons, doesn't it?

by Jill Zuckman

Perhaps mentioning a liberal Democrat at a Republican rally isn't such a good idea.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was booed tonight when she said Sen. Hillary Clinton's name.

At the Consol Energy ballfield in Washington, Pennsylvania, Palin delivered essentially the same biographical stump speech as she did in Dayton, Ohio on Friday, pointing out that it is almost 80 years to the day since women in the United States got the right to vote..

But this time, when she mentioned the women who came before her citing the history-making nomination of Geraldine Ferraro, as well as Clinton's "determination and grace" in the 2008 Democratic primary, boos greeted Palin. They were long and loud near the press section.

Palin plowed on, noting that Clinton got 18 million cracks in the highest, hardest ceiling and "it turns out the women of America aren't finished yet."

by Frank James, updated at 6:49 PM

6:49 pm -- The deed is almost done. Clinton moves that a voice vote be taken and that the roll call be stopped. The crowd seconds. Nancy Pelosi asks for the ayes, and slams the gavel down before the nos can be heard. It's official.

6:46 PM -- Mayor Richard Daley is at the mike and Chicagoans are holding their breath since the mayor is not the best speaker. Illinois yields to New York. Sen. Hillary Clinton enters the hall with Sen. Charles Schumer at her side. The crowd sees her on the screen and cheers lustily. Senate Speaker Sidney Sheldon has the mike and hands off to Clinton who gets a loud ovation. Clinton speaks and says "in the spirit of unity, with faith in the party let's declare in one voice right here right now that Barack Obama is our candidate."

6:39 pm -- New Jersey cast all 127 of its votes for Barack Obama. New Mexico is the only state between us and Sen. Hillary Clinton who is to make a dramatic call for the convention to nominate Obama. Wait, New Mexico is yielding to Illinois which passed earlier. So it will take a little while longer to get to New York.

6:24 pm -- We're getting close, we're up to Minnesota, home of the winning ladies Duluth hockey team. Photographers are packed in around the New York delegation, waiting for the moment when Sen. Hillary Clinton asks for the roll call to be stopped and that a voice vote of the convention give the nomination to Sen. Barack Obama.

--------------------------------------------

I'm in the Pepsi Center now and the roll call of the states has started at the Democratic National Convention.

A Democratic source tells me that when the roll call gets to New York, Sen. Hillary Clinton will ask the convention chair that the convention approve the nomination of Sen. Barack Obama by acclamation. That's the deal that's been reached.

If it goes according to plan, it should be a pretty dramatic moment. California passing in the roll call was part of the plan. Arkansas's unanimous vote was apparently also part of the plan. That was a special moment since Clinton was once the long-time first lady of that state.

by Frank James

DENVER -- One of the oddest things about last night's Hillary Clinton speech had nothing to do with the senator.

The Secret Service shut down access to the hall while Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer was delivering his rousing attack on John McCain, leaving hundreds of people unable to get past the party volunteers posted as guards at each of the doorways into the seating area on the first and second levels.

This left hundreds if not thousands of people in the corridors where they had to watch Clinton's speech on TVs stationed around the facility. I nearly became one of those people forced to watch the speech on TV even though the real thing was happening only a few hundred feet away.

After speedwalking around nearly the entire arena and bouncing between floors, I finally made my way to Tribune's broadcasting booth and watched Clinton's speech from there.

This led to one of the evening's best moments, for me at least. Not only did I get to witness Clinton's historic speech, but I got to see WGN-TV anchor Allison Payne, an old acquaintance who I used to bump into on news assignments in Chicago. She was one of several Tribune TV journalists providing coverage of Clinton's speech.

by Josh Drobnyk

Former President Bill Clinton, in what could be a preview of his speech Wednesday night, told party-goers in Denver Tuesday night that "this election is not about a politician."

The former president and his wife made a surprise appearance at a party at Invesco Field for the delegations of Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Florida. Joined on stage by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and New York Gov. David Patterson, he said he was "so proud" of Hillary Clinton for making "the only argument that matters tonight."

"To Sen. Clinton in advance: I forgive her for upstaging me tomorrow night," he said. "I forgive her for making me looking like a second-rate speaker."

He added: "Hillary made the only argument matters tonight. Nothing else matters. This election is not about a politician."

He added: "Two thirds of the American people are having a tough time. ... And it is not going to get any better. So she made the case. ..."

"You really don't have any choice," he said. "There is not an option here. ... Don't forget -- out there in this country the American people are aching and they are looking to us to shell down the corn and deliver the goods and the only way we can do it is if we do it together."

by Frank James

Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden appeared in Springfield, Ill. today to introduce their new presidential ticket, with Obama, the all-but-official Democratic presidential nominee, making a strong case for why he made Biden his vice presidential pick and Biden making the case that Obama was just the candidate to bring change to Washington.

Before an enthusiastic crowd of thousands of supporters on a stiflingly hot summer day, on the steps of the old State Capitol where Abraham Lincoln once served as a lawmaker, Obama painted a portrait of Biden as a man whose great personal strength which allowed him to survive adversity and faced down tyrants would make him a great vice president.

Obama emphasized the foreign policy credentials that the senator from Delaware is known for, trying to draw the contrast between the Bush Administration's foreign policy of the past eight years and Biden's approach.

Over the last eight years, he has been a powerful critic of the catastrophic Bush-McCain foreign policy, and a voice for a new direction that takes the fight to the terrorists and ends the war in Iraq responsibly. He recently went to Georgia, where he met quietly with the President and came back with a call for aid and a tough message for Russia.

Joe Biden is what so many others pretend to be - a statesman with sound judgment who doesn't have to hide behind bluster to keep America strong.

But the senator from Illinois also ticked off many of Biden's domestic accomplishments, including legislation to better protect women from domestic violence and to place more police on the streets of U.S. cities, the latter which Obama said helped lead to a significant decline in the crime rate in the 1990s.

All the while, Obama painted Biden as a fighter with a common touch. The fighter part was important since many Democrats have believed that Obama needed a running mate who could go hammer and tongs after Sen. John McCain, a long-time friend of Biden's.

Obama referred to Biden as "stiil that scrappy kid from Scranton who beat the odds," and a "dedicated family man and committed Catholic who knows every conductor on that Amtrak train to Wilmington. That's the kind of fighter who I want by my side in the months and years to come."

By Andrew Zajac

Footnote to the Democratic primary: Among the worries of the party faithful about New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the business baggage of Bill Clinton, including his lucrative relationship with Vinod Gupta, founder and CEO of the infoUSA database and marketing firm.

Make that former CEO.

Gupta was replaced as chief executive of the Omaha-based firm as part of a proposed settlement of a shareholder suit which accused him of misspending millions in company funds, part of that on the Clintons.

Gupta, who still owns a hefty chunk of infoUSA shares, remains a board member, but turns over the reins of the company to one of its outside directors, according to an infoUSA announcement this morning.

Clinton looks on during a news conference where he announced a program to reduce the cost of malaria drugs August 3, 2008 in Monrovia, Liberia. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images For The Clinton Foundation)

by Frank James

ABC News has an interview with former President Bill Clinton in which he says he's not a racist for the things he said during the Democratic primary race between his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

That's just how topsy turvy the rise of Obama has made the world for the man once called the "first black president." He now has to protest that he's not a racist.

ABC caught up with Clinton in Liberia where he was traveling to take in the good works of his foundation.

Clinton clearly was barely able to repress his anger during certain parts of the interview but did for the most part. He took a few shots at the media, blaming us for some of the problems experienced by his wife in her unsuccessful run for the White House.

But he held back quite a bit, clearly not wanting to say anything for which he could later be blamed if Sen. Barack Obama, the assumed Democratic presidential nominee, fails to win the presidency.

Clinton promised to unburden himself in "January once the election is over." Does he know something we don't? We thought the election would be over in November.

In any event, despite his desire to stay on the high road, a little of the old Clinton anger did seep out. He was asked about Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina who reporter Kate Snow first identified as a one-time Clinton supporter. Clyburn is Congress's highest ranking African-American.

As Snow writes on the ABC News website:

When Clyburn's name was brought up as a supporter who criticized the former president, Clinton interrupted to say Clyburn was never a supporter of the Clintons.

Pressed on whether Clinton "severely damaged" his standing with African-Americans as Clyburn has claimed, Clinton snapped, "Yeah, that may be. By the time he got through working on it, that was probably true."

Looks like Clyburn burned Clinton's the bridge to the 21st century.

Sen. Hillary Clinton arrives for a series of votes on the U.S. Senate floor, May 13, 2008. (Photo: Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images)

by Katie Fretland

Hillary Clinton has sent a letter to supporters asking for help financing her 2012 campaign for Senate.

The letter asks donors to choose between getting a refund for donations of up to $2,300 to her general election campaign or letting Clinton keep that money for her Senate re-election bid, the New York Observer reports.

The senator from New York can't transfer those donations to Sen. Barack Obama, who she has supported following her defeat in the primaries. The pair joined forces to help eachother raise money in a show of unity, despite bitterness during their campaigns.

Our friends at Top of the Ticket have more on Clinton in 2012.

By Rick Pearson

More than $20 million in the hole and finding reluctance among Sen. Barack Obama's supporters to help retire her campaign debt, Sen. Hillary Clinton urged her backers to help her out by buying a t-shirt.

Not just any t-shirt. A $50 "limited edition" t-shirt, the winner in a contest launched in May when Clinton was still very much an active candidate for the Democratic nomination for the presidency against Obama.

"While the primary race may be over, I think the winning t-shirt -- and it won by a landslide -- still makes a wonderful statement about everything you and I accomplished in this historic race and our determination to keep fighting for what we believe in," Clinton wrote supporters in an e-mail today.

"If you contribute $50 today you'll get a t-shirt with the winning design and continue to help me pay down our campaign debt," she wrote, thanking "Denitza of Weehawken, New Jersey" for submitting the best of 125,000 entries.

The t-shirts with white lettering are available in a variety of sizes, up to XXXL--appropriate for an oversize campaign debt.

By Lisa Anderson

NEW YORK--On their newly hatched togetherness tour, former Democratic rivals Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois appeared together at a fundraiser this morning at the New York Hilton.

Billed as a Women for Obama Finance Breakfast, the gathering drew more than 2,000 people, who paid between $250 and $2,300 per seat.

Many of them, according to Cora Weiss, one of the hosts, were former Clinton supporters.

But the difficulties of transferring political passion--and financial support-- from one candidate to another--particularly in this most unique of cases--were not only evident, but acknowledged at length in remarks by Clinton and Obama.

by Andrew Zajac

Hillary Clinton biographer Gail Sheehy weighs in with a fascinating post-mortem on the New York senator's just-concluded presidential campaign in the upcoming issue of Vanity Fair.

According to Sheehy, fierce infighting among the Clinton inner circle "team of rivals" -- Harold Ickes, Mark Penn, Patty Solis Doyle, Mandy Grunwald and Howard Wolfson, left the campaign unable to recover from blunders, like woefully underestimating Barack Obama and dithering about competing aggressively in the Iowa caucuses.

Nor could the campaign reign in Bill Clinton, whom Sheehy portrays as an imperial figure carrying on as though the presidency for his wife was a family birthright.

In the end, the combination of Obama's unexpectedly impressive performance and the new Democratic establishment's wariness and weariness of the Clintons helped prevent the expected rescue of the campaign by the party's superdelegates.

Read Sheehy's entire take on the campaign here.

by Andrew Zajac

Part of the process of reconciliation between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton requires the Illinois senator to schmooze and stroke Clinton's big donors.

Obama began the process last week with a meeting of Clinton's national finance committee.

One of the challenges this poses for Obama, whose campaign champions change in Washington, is how he will deal with some of the decidedly old school aspects of Clinton's fundraising wherein the candidate did not worry unduly about exactly where the money came from or what scrapes the donors may have been involved in.

Donors like Sant Chatwal, who has waged lengthy battles with tax collectors, bankruptcy court and government regulators, while maintaining his status as a key campaign bundler and door-opener among Indian-Americans for first Bill Clinton and later Hillary Clinton.

Chatwal also helped arrange one of Bill Clinton's bigger post-presidential paydays, serving as the go-between for Clinton and a London charity which wound up paying him $450,000 for an appearance at a 2006 fundraiser. That was nearly one third of the fundraiser's revenue and $170,000 more than Clinton charged for ordinary overseas for-profit appearances.

Now Chatwal is warming up to Obama.

by Jill Zuckman

In the hours before Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton come together in the small hippie town of Unity, N.H., the McCain campaign is calling into Obama's bipartisan credentials - again.

During a conference call with former Rep. Charles Bass (R-N.H.), he argued that Americans are less interested in unity among Democrats and more interested in efforts to work across party lines to solve challenges on energy, the environment and the war in Iraq.

"The only real demonstration of his willingness to change is his change in position," Bass said about Obama's decision not to take public financing for his campaign.

McCain, on the other hand, Bass said, has a record of confronting issues head on with lawmakers from both parties.

"Sen. McCain from the very first day he stepped foot in the US Senate, he's been an independent voice for change," Bass said.

Bass, who is a volunteer for McCain's campaign, criticized Obama for being "scripted," and for turning down McCain's call for joint town hall meetings. He said the McCain campaign would soon release a list of Democrats and Independents in New Hampshire who support McCain - and not Obama.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign released a statement earlier today about Obama's work with Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), who had just held another conference call on McCain's behalf.

"Their work stands as an important reminder that even in this era of increased partisan rancor, Democrats and Republicans can work together to tackle the critical challenges that all Americans agree must be met," Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

by Katie Fretland

Need a hotel room in Denver?

TMZ.com reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign had booked hundreds of hotel rooms in August for the Democratic National Convention, but now that she's out of the race, there won't be much partying.

The report, called to our attention by Top of the Ticket , says the campaign has sent e-mails to politicos, charities and supporters trying to make sure the rooms don't end up adding to the $20 million-plus debt.

See the story in Top of the Ticket, the L.A. Times political blog.

UPDATE: Jin Chon at the Clinton campaign said the TMZ.com report is incorrect and they will be using their full block.

by Matthew Hay Brown

After a primrary season divided between two of their colleagues, the Democratic women of the Senate rallied together behind a 10-item Checklist for Change they said they would pursue through the rest of the election season.

"This is a way to show that whether you were for Hillary or whether you were for Barack, that we've come together," said Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, who was a national co-chairwoman of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. "It's all part of our momentum for the campaign."

Mikulski and fellow Clinton supporters Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray of Washington, Dianne Feinstein of California, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan now will be working to woo women, seen as a key segment of the electorate, on behalf of Barack Obama.

Joined by Obama supporters Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and Barbara Boxer of California, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, who remained neutral during the primary campaign, they unveiled a to-do list that included providing equal pay for equal work, keeping jobs in America, making healthcare affordable and taking care of military families and veterans.

"We've looked at the macro issues," Mikulski said. "But also, it's our special task to look at the macaroni-and-cheese issues - the issues that affect American families."

by Frank James

Did we in the media torpedo Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign through our allegedly rampant sexism?

That's the question at the heart of a lengthy story this morning in the New York Times about criticism of the media for being sexist towards the first woman to have a serious chance to win a presidential nomination.

The article doesn't so much to seek to answer the question as air it. Many Clinton supporters are reportedly blaming sexism in the media for some or most of Clinton's troubles.

The view that we in the media may have cost Clinton the nomination is captured in this snippet from the story:

For many of Mrs. Clinton's supporters, the anger over her treatment has not subsided and they are trying to take steps to minimize sexism in the future. "It's volcanic," said Allida M. Black, the director of the Eleanor Roosevelt Papers at George Washington University and a founder of WomenCount PAC, a group that ran full-page newspaper advertisements last month urging Mrs. Clinton to stay in the race.

"How do we deal with the media who many, many people feel compounded the missteps by the campaign and robbed her of any shot she might have had at the nomination?" Ms. Black said.

Most of the well-known (to media-types at least) journalists were quoted as saying the media didn't sabotage Clinton's efforts through sexism or that, at the very least, it's difficult to tease out whether negative coverage was driven more by other factors than Clinton's womanhood.

Notably Katie Couric, the CBS News anchor, isn't one of them. She thinks the Clinton coverage was imbued to greater or lesser degrees with sexism. A lot of people will probably conclude she's projecting her own feelings about her treatment at CBS onto the Clinton coverage, but that's another story.

By Naftali Bendavid

To the various and sundry gaps John McCain must confront this fall--the fundraising gap, the excitement gap, the party approval gap--add one more: the surrogate gap.

Assuming the Clintons recover from their primary battle wounds and campaign hard for Barack Obama, which seems likely, the Democratic candidate could have quite a stable of stars to campaign for him around the country, augmenting his own demonstrated ability to draw a crowd. Consider, just for starters:

= Hillary Clinton herself. She has an impassioned following among working-class voters, women and the elderly. She inspired millions by almost becoming the first woman nominee of a major party. Her supporters remain disappointed by her loss to Obama, but if she campaigns in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania, she could generate significant excitement on Obama's behalf.

Andrew Zajac

The booze highlight of this campaign season was supposed to have been Hillary Clinton's Crown Royal and a beer in Crown Point, Indiana in April.

But the clear spirits people -- the young, upscale demographic in this bottle battle -- aren't conceding the election to the boat gas crowd.

Svedka, a mid-brow Swedish vodka seeking to "put the party back in party politics" has offered Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain a free supply of the product between now and November 4.

Svedka made the offer in a full-page ad (above) in Monday's NYT wrapped around a thank-you from "Svedka_Grl" to Clinton for "making this election so exciting."

It's all part of Svedka's "Put a Fembot in the White House" promotion, which is more fully explained...Uh, never mind.

With that mechanical dominatrix look -- Astro Boy meets Ilsa, She Wolf of the SS -- Svedka_Grl makes for a risque marketing campaign.

Probably shouldn't hold our breaths waiting for the campaigns' responses to her generous offer. Though "Swedish vodka" would make for an interesting entry under in-kind contributions on the candidates' expense reports.

by James Oliphant

You could feel the ache Saturday at the National Building Museum in Washington.

You could see on the faces and in the eyes of Hillary Clinton's supporters.

What was the look? Was it a familiar disappointment, a feeling that again something has been snatched away by larger forces, by the same shadowy obstacles that had limited their own lives?

They clapped and cried and didn't want to end. Neither did Clinton, who after making a gracious concession speech, stayed and shook hands and talked. She wasn't running for anything any longer, except perhaps vice president. But she doesn't get to decide that one and neither do her supporters.

People posed together in pictures, daughters were held aloft. It's rare when history is made in defeat, but there was a sense Saturday that her acolytes wanted to soak in the moment, enjoy while it lasted, even as they felt the curtain coming down with each sentence she delivered.

And then when it was finally over, many felt devastated--even still angry and defiant. In their minds, Clinton had received a raw deal, from the media, from the Democratic Party, and from Barack Obama, who they said had patronized her. They complained about Clinton being asked at one debate about whether she was likable--and about the DNC's decision a week ago to award Obama delegates from Michigan when he wasn't on the ballot.

It wasn't so much that the dream had perished as much as it had been denied--or stolen.

by Jill Zuckman

Now that the coast is clear and Sen. Hillary Clinton is out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president, the last membere of the House Democratic leadership team has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama.

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said in a statement that he is proud to formally endorse Obama. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel have already endorsed Obama.

"Sen. Obama will be our next president because his appeal to our best selves and his determination to lead our nation in a new direction have resonated with voters across the nation and across the political spectrum," Hoyer said. "American will choose him for the quality of his ideas for our future and for his ability to lead and inspire."

Here is the full statement:

"I am proud to formally endorse Barack Obama today for the presidency of the United States.

America saw a striking contrast between the candidates for President this past Tuesday night. One candidate offered a warmed-over selection of Bush policies to a listless audience and a scattering of applause. Another stood in the midst of thousands of cheering citizens, calling on us to "remake this great nation so that it may always reflect our very best selves and our highest ideals." It is clear which one of those two men will be our next president - Barack Obama - and I am very pleased and proud that he will be our Democratic standard-bearer in November."

by James Oliphant

Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who once worked in the Clinton White House but who this week endorsed Barack Obama, released a statement Saturday after Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential nomination.

"Hillary Clinton has been my friend for 16 years. My heart is with her and her remarkable family today.," Emanuel said "Although she fell short in the delegate race, her campaign was successful in the larger sense. She took issues that dominate the dinner table and put them on center stage. Because of Hillary we are closer to the day when every family has a family doctor; every working person has a good job, and every girl and boy can dare to dream."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also released a statement praising Clinton, saying, "Her vitality and energy on the campaign trail as well as her passion and commitment to the issues secured her place as a respected and thoughtful leader of our nation. Her candidacy inspired millions and unleashed the power of women as they voted in record numbers at the ballot box. As a tireless champion of working families, her leadership in our party and in the Senate will be needed as we work on critical issues -- such as health care -- in the months and years to come."

by James Oliphant

Here is the full text of the speech Hillary Clinton gave in Washington today, in which she ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Barack Obama:

"Thank you so much. Thank you all.

Well, this isn't exactly the party I'd planned, but I sure like the company.

I want to start today by saying how grateful I am to all of you - to everyone who poured your hearts and your hopes into this campaign, who drove for miles and lined the streets waving homemade signs, who scrimped and saved to raise money, who knocked on doors and made calls, who talked and sometimes argued with your friends and neighbors, who emailed and contributed online, who invested so much in our common enterprise, to the moms and dads who came to our events, who lifted their little girls and little boys on their shoulders and whispered in their ears, "See, you can be anything you want to be."

by James Oliphant

She came. They wept. She conceded.

The medicine did not go down easy.

More than 2,000 of Hillary Clinton's supporters showed up at the cavernous National Building Museum in Washington today to watch the senator deliver the address they had to have been dreading for months, even as they wanted to fervently believe it would not happen.

Clinton announced she was quitting her campaign and she threw her full support behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama. Her pronouncement was greeted with a mixture of cheers and shouts of disappointment.

The event had been billed as a coming together of the Clinton and Obama camps, but there were few Obama supporters to be found.

One die-hard Clinton supporter, Jan Mundo, who rode down in a bus from New York with 50 others Saturday, said she would vote for Obama, but only because that was Clinton's directive.

"We'll do what she wants," Mundo said. "She's asked us to do this for her."

She said that "many of us remain suspicious of how the election was won."

by Jim Tankersley

When a team loses a close game, heartbroken fans often zero in on the game's final moments: a pivotal play, a referee's call, a questionable coaching decision. But the players often focus instead on the middle of the game - a momentum shift, a lost lead, the point when a victory that once seemed assured was suddenly in doubt.

Supporters of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign will gather today in Washington, to celebrate her close-but-just-short race for the Democratic nomination and watch Clinton endorse rival Barack Obama. The faithful will also compare theories on what went wrong, and the temptation might be to focus on the endgame: What if the Democratic National Committee seated Michigan and Florida's disputed delegations at full strength?

We'll suggest an alternative topic: eight days in February when Clinton lost control of the race for good.

Obama and Clinton traded victories in the first month of Democratic voting. He won Iowa and South Carolina. She won New Hampshire and Nevada (and the aforementioned Michigan and Florida). Every other serious Democratic contender dropped out, leaving Clinton and Obama to battle one-on-one on Super Tuesday, the Feb. 5 delegate trove that included California, New York, Illinois and a glut of other states.

It was supposed to be Clinton's knockout blow.

by Jill Zuckman

Retired General Wesley Clark, one of Sen. Hillary Clinton's most ardent supporters, has sent a letter to his own supporters from his 2004 presidential bid. In his letter, Clark urges his people to get behind Sen. Barack Obama to help him win the White House in November.

Could it be a signal of what's to come Saturday afternoon when Clinton holds a rally at the National Building Museum?

Calling it a "critical mission," Clark asked voters to do everything they can to help elect Obama.

"Hillary Clinton ran an amazing race. She inspired millions. Our party is a better party because of her campaign, and our nation is a better nation because of her service. She is and will always be a friend whom I admire," Clark wrote.

"I congratulate Senator Barack Obama on securing the nomination. His historic campaign has touched lives and his message has moved people in every corner of America. I believe he is not only ready for the challenge but will be a great President," Clark's letter said.

by Jill Zuckman

Ellen Malcolm, the president of Emily's List, which has worked tirelessly to help Sen. Hillary Clinton get elected the first woman president, told her members that Clinton "laid to rest any doubts" that a woman has what it takes to run for president.

Here is her letter:

"At every turn in this long journey, Hillary Clinton has filled me with tremendous pride and honored all women with the courage, grace, and dignity of her historic campaign. Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton competed in every state, unleashing a tidal wave of enthusiasm and support. Now that the primaries have concluded, I wholeheartedly congratulate Sen. Barack Obama. He has inspired millions of Americans and shown that he is more than ready to take on Sen. John McCain.

I know that EMILY's List members, like all Democrats, will be unified in our determination to undo the damage created by George W. Bush and the Republicans. I am confident that our party will come together to take the White House in November. And, once again, EMILY's List will unleash the political power of women to help Democrats win at every level in 2008 so we can begin to rebuild a progressive America. EMILY's List has important work to do to help Democrats take back the White House and build working progressive majorities in the states and in the Congress. EMILY's List has endorsed more than two dozen strong women candidates for House, Senate, and governor, and dozens more running for state office. And we are executing our biggest WOMEN VOTE! project ever, to mobilize the women voters who will ensure victory for our candidates and Democrats up and down the ticket -- from the state House to the White House. Together we will build a mighty political force that will win in November."

by Jill Zuckman

Angling for the backing of women voters, the Obama campaign has created a wide array of support groups: Prime Time Women for Obama, Boomer Women for Obama, Middle-Aged Women for Obama, Women over 50 for Obama and even Obama Mamas.

But after wrapping up the Democratic nomination in a long and bruising battle against a popular female politician, Sen. Barack Obama will begin his general election push trying to attract women voters who feel a keen sense of disappointment that Sen. Hillary Clinton will not become the first female president next year.Those women may be open to hearing what Sen. John McCain has to say, creating an opening for him to make inroads with a group of voters who traditionally lean Democratic.

"To the extent that McCain can make Obama look like a big risk -- make them feel a little leery about the change he might bring about -- he might be successful in attracting them," said Susan Carroll, senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. "He does have that independent reputation and that reputation of thinking for himself and not necessarily going along with the Republican Party line, which I think a lot of people find appealing."

McCain advisers recognize that his chances with women will depend largely on how the Democratic fight ends.

"It's changing every hour -- how Barack Obama reacts to Hillary Clinton this afternoon will drive how many Hillary Clinton voters see Barack Obama tomorrow. And it all has some bearing on our race," said Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager. "If they're open to a dialogue with John McCain -- well, heck, when was the last time a Republican candidate running for president was having a dialogue with women Democrats?"

It's far from certain that will be happening this time, either. With his macho image as a former Navy fighter pilot and POW, as well as his strong support for the war in Iraq, McCain is not the most likely figure to pull in women's votes. Obama, on the other hand, has kept his focus on the domestic issues squeezing women's wallets. Add to that McCain's opposition to abortion rights while Obama supports such rights -- a key issue for Democratic women..

By David Nitkin

Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin and Rep. Chris Van Hollen announced their support for Barack Obama today. The Maryland Democrats joined the wave of uncommitted superdelegates who are striving to patch over rifts exposed during the primaries and move ahead quickly with a general election campaign.

Cardin said the superdelegates "have done exactly what I had hoped they would do" by getting behind the candidacy of the clear winner. Speaking at a news conference at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, he said his focus now is "bringing as much unity as we can" to the Democratic party.

Obama can win over voters who supported Clinton is key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, Cardin said, "just by sticking to the issues."

"I think it's clear whether you are a voter who voted for Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton, that you want change in America," he said. "You don't want four more years of President Bush's policies."

Addressing the merits of Clinton joining Obama as a running mate, Cardin said "I think it would be a great ticket." "She's clearly qualified," he said, and would bring "balance" to the Democratic slate.

Van Hollen, of Montgomery County, said in an interview it was "time for the Democratic Party to unite behind Barack Obama" so that Democrats "maintain the energy and momentum."

Obama could win over Clinton voters in mid-America states, Van Hollen said, if the Illinois senator "goes back to those places" and reaches out to voters, making clear "he shares their interests and values."

He also said Clinton "needs to make it clear she is fully behind Sen. Obama."

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominatee, has had months to work on his speech delivery while he waited for the Democrats to settle on a nominee. He apparently didn't take advantage of the time.

His speech tonight from Kenner, La., was full of cringe-worthy moments, like all the times he smiled at inappropriate moments.

But while the visuals were often bad, the message was good, especially when he reached out to Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters. Good move.

Here's a snippet from the start of the speech when he spoke about her:

Sen. Clinton has earned great respect for her tenacity and courage. The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received. As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach. I am proud to call her my friend.

To see a the full-length video of McCain's speech, click here.

by Rick Pearson

Sen. Barack Obama claimed his place in history tonight by becoming the first African American to win a major party nomination for president, securing the necessary delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House.

With the votes in South Dakota's primary giving him the necessary delegates, the Illinois Democrat prepared to claim victory at the home of this summer's Republican National Convention--the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, where his expected GOP rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, will formally accept his party's nomination in September.

Obama gained the nomination almost 16 months after first declaring his candidacy for the presidency with a frigid address outside the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., where Abraham Lincoln delivered his famous "house divided" speech.

Though he entered the contest as an underdog against a Hillary Clinton campaign that, at times, viewed itself inevitable, Obama used the Internet to lead a massive, record-breaking fundraising effort. A victory in Iowa, which once seemed implausible, strong organizing in other caucus states and a monumental fundraising advantage all proved too sizable a hurdle for Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, to overcome.

Obama rode to victory on a theme of change, using his short tenure in the U.S. Senate to promote himself as a new style of politician not bound by Washington's ways of the past. His speeches energized voters and his early successes gave confidence to African-American voters in subsequent states that white voters were prepared to vote for a black candidate for the presidency.

by David Nitkin

The trickle of superdelegates siding with Barack Obama on the final primary day includes names familiar in political circles, and those not so well known.

In the former category goes Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, the third-ranking House Democrat and prominent African-American lawmaker who stayed neutral despite aiming mild criticism at former President Bill Clinton's ill-timed comments during his state's primary.

In the latter category: Belkis Heong-Long, head of the Democratic National Committee's Asian and Pacific Islander American Caucus, and a resident of Montgomery County, Maryland.

On Saturday, Heong-Long told The (Baltimore) Sun that she was truly undecided, and wanted to split her vote in half. She was waiting to hear which candidate would better address Asian-American issues, she said.

Today, she said in a statement released by the Obama campaign that "I believe he is the strongest candidate for the Asian-American and Pacific Islander community and he understands that it's time for AAPI issues--immigration, education, and small business policy, for example--to be discussed on the national stage."

The Obama campaign said Heong-Long's decision left the Illinois senator 10 delegates short of the nomination, even as multiple news organizations already declared him over the top.

None of Maryland's four members of Congress who have not declared their intentions -- Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin and representatives John Sarbanes, Chris Van Hollen and Steny Hoyer -- announced a decision by the time Heong-Long had.

by Frank James updated 3:44 pm

Sen. Barack Obama has said that Sen. Hillary Clinton would be on anyone's short list for vice president. It appears Clinton may be trying to see if he really meant it.

The Associated Press is reporting that Clinton has told New York lawmakers that she's "open" to being Obama's vice presidential pick. We don't have much more than this AP news alert to work with:

By BETH FOUHY and DEVLIN BARRETT, Associated Press Writers

AP-ES-06-03-08 1534EDT

If Obama chooses Clinton, it certainly would be one way of trying to heal the divide in the Democratic Party.

But there's a widespread belief that there's so much bad blood between the camps that such a combination would be virtually impossible.

An equally strong belief is that the presence of former President Bill Clinton in the mix would make such a ticket untenable and, should such a ticket win the general election, for a very charged and poisonous White House atmosphere.

by Tamara Lytle

Tallahassee Democratic activist Jon Ausman - the man at the center of the fight to reinstate Florida's presidential nominating convention delegates - will endorse a candidate at 2:30 this afternoon.

Ausman, a state employee, said he still hasn't decided whether it will be Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton. He's holding a news conference outside his office in Tallhassee because he set himself a 3 p.m. decision to make a choice.

Ausman is a member of the Democratic National Committee, which makes him a superdelegate. He won his case Saturday to have Florida's delegation reinstated by the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee.

Ausman and the other 210 Florida delegates will get only a half vote each in a compromise that punishes Florida for holding its Jan. 29 primary too early.

by Frank James

It should surprise no one that Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.,) the highest ranking black in congressional leadership, has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.

After all, black South Carolinians went overwhelmingly (80 percent) for Obama and that was a result Clyburn, the state's most important black politician, was never going to buck.

Meanwhile, Clyburn had expressed disappointment several times with remarks by Sen. Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton that many interpreted as racially tinged disparagement of Obama or even Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

On NBC's "Today" show where he officially made his announcement, Clyburn deflected host Matt Lauer's attempt to make it look as if he was playing it safe by waiting until the end of the process when it was clear Obama would be the nominee before publicly making his move.

No, Clyburn said earnestly, looking like an undertaker (for Clinton's campaign, perhaps?) As a superdelegate, he merely hadn't wanted to insert himself into the primary process, preferring to give voters the chance to make their choice known first.

(Photo: ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)

by Frank James

How many people have stopped to think that the pantsuit actually had to be invented? Not many, I'm guessing.

And yet, just like the sandwich, the pantsuit needed a creator. And the person credited with the invention, according to the obituaries, is Yves St. Laurent, the haute couture designer who just died at age 71.

Thus, St.Laurent contributed greatly to the imagery of the 2008 presidential campaign in that he created what turned out to be the signature fashion choice of Sen. Hillary Clinton. It is so identified with her she once joked that she was wearing an asbestos pantsuit to withstand the heat from her Democratic opponents.

The pantsuit is a perfect uniform for Clinton. To some people a pantsuit is just a pantsuit. But to the cognescenti, it has been a symbol of women's empowerment since St.Laurent introduced it in the 1960s.

A cluster bomb in the yard of a house in the southern Lebanese village of Sultaniyeh (THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images)

by Frank James

More than 100 countries meeting in Dublin, Ireland agreed today to a treaty that would ban the use of cluster bombs, those canister munitions filled with bomblets that are often left in civilian areas long after the conflict is over where they main and kill the innocent, especially children.

The U.S. has opposed the treaty because it wants to maintain the military option of using them as a defensive weapon, a position that has placed it at odds with global human-rights groups. The U.S. is joined by Russia and China in opposing the ban.

It's not just the Bush Administration that opposes the treaty. The Clinton Administration did too. Britain had sided with the U.S. until recently when Prime Minister Gordon Brown, hoping to battle back from his domestic unpopularity, broke with the U.S. and signed on to the treaty.

There hasn't been much if any talk about cluster bombs in the presidential campaign so far though today's agreement could change that.

There was a telling vote in September 2006 on legislation that would have banned the use of cluster bombs in civilian areas. Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain voted against the ban which failed 70-30. Sen. Barack Obama voted for the ban.

by Matthew Hay Brown

Hillary Clinton, who is looking to narrow the gap in the popular vote in the primaries that remain, enjoys a 13-point lead of Barack Obama in the largest of the three, according to one poll.

Fifty-one percent of Puerto Ricans said they plan to vote for the New York Democrat when islanders head to the polls on Sunday, according to the survey of 800 released Wednesday by the San Juan newspaper El Vocero and the Spanish-language network Univision.

Thirty-eight percent planned to vote for Obama. Eight percent said they would not vote, and 3 percent didn't know or didn't answer in the survey conducted by the firm of former Bill Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg between May 8 and 20.

It doesn't sound as if Puerto Ricans would be disappointed if Obama won the nomination: Asked whether they would support the Democratic candidate if they could vote in the general election, 72 percent said yes; only 2 percent said it depended on which candidate won the nomination. Ten percent said they would vote for John McCain.

Voter turnout has been projected as high as 1 million in this U.S. territory of 4 million, known for high rates of political awareness and partcipation, but where islanders may not vote for president.

Seventy-two percent of respondents described the primary as very or somewhat important. At stake are 55 pledged delegates, more than Montana and South Dakota combined.

Clinton, who spent three days on the island this week is due back on Saturday, has long been expected to win there. She represents 1 million Puerto Ricans in New York, many of whom have relatives on the island, and benefits from her association with her husband's administration, of which 69 percent of respondents expressed approval.

Obama has spent just 18 hours on the island, but has advertised heavily on local radio and television.

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton took a break from campaigning in South Dakota for the Democratic presidential nomination to visit Mt. Rushmore.

There she posed, like millions of tourists, in front of the famous monument, with the photographers making sure to capture just the right angle to help the mind's eye imagine what it might look like if her visage were carved in the mountain.

It makes for a fun photograph. We're waiting to see Barack Obama's and John McCain's so that we can compare.

Here's an Associated Press story on her visit:

MOUNT RUSHMORE, S.D. (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton, her future far from carved in stone, paid a visit to the famed Mount Rushmore monument Wednesday.

Campaigning in South Dakota before the state's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, Clinton bundled up against chilly temperatures to walk through the monument and listen as a national park ranger described the history of the mountainside chiseled with the visages of Presidents George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton got more grist for her argument to Democratic superdelegates that she would perform better against Sen. John McCain than Sen. Barack Obama. She continues to lead McCain in a tracking poll's head-to-head match-up, outperforming Obama in his match-up against McCain.

A recent Gallup Poll shows her leading McCain by several percentage points in a national survey.

That compares with McCain and Obama being in a statistical tie.

Here's a snippet of Gallup's report:

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain and Barack Obama are now virtually tied at 46% to 45% when registered voters nationally are asked for whom they would vote next November if these were the two presidential nominees, while Hillary Clinton maintains a 48% to 44% margin over McCain in a hypothetical Clinton-McCain matchup.

As the end to Democratic primary and caucus voting draws near (the Puerto Rico primary on June 1 and the Montana and South Dakota primaries on June 3 will be the last), Gallup Poll Daily tracking for May 24-25 and May 27 shows that Barack Obama maintains a relatively slim 6-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 50% to 44%. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

by Jim Tankersley

We're not just politics nerds here at The Swamp - we're also stats nerds. So when the two intersect in an interesting, readable way, we're happy campers. That's the case today, with a detailed anaylsis by RealClearPolitics blogger Jay Cost of Barack Obama's "coalition" of voter support.

Cost mines exit poll data and detailed voting results to break down Obama and opponent Hillary Clinton's support by region and demographics. Then he uses regression analysis - a mathematical tool for finding meaningful correlations in sets of data - to show the underlying trend of which candidate wins which voters.

Bottom line: White Democratic voters split consistently along socioeconomic lines. The richer and more educated they are, the better Obama does. That holds true, to varying degrees, among men and women and across generations. As Cost puts it, "among white voters, socioeconomic status permeates the Obama v. Clinton contest. It seems that one's inclination to vote for a candidate does not depend simply upon age and gender, but age and gender in the context of socioeconomic status. These factors interact with one another to produce (ultimately) a vote choice."

Cost also concludes that higher-income, better-educated whites - along with African Americans, who support him across socioeconomic lines - represent a more fundamental "base" for Obama east of the Mississippi than West of it.

"In a sense," Cost writes, "he has been like two different candidates. In the west, his candidacy has been broadly based and relatively diverse (though he has lagged behind with Hispanics). In the east, it has been more narrow, largely failing to build a real cross-section of the electorate, at least outside New England."

We invite you to channel your inner nerd and read the full analysis here. Scroll down to read Part 1 first. Tomorrow, Cost promises to tell us what this all means for battleground states.

by Jim Tankersley

The nomination clock is ticking toward midnight. The odds of winning appear increasingly stacked against her. It is, daughter Chelsea reports, "critical decision" time for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

Yep: Time to pick a new official campaign T-shirt.

Superdelegates, small-state primaries and the DNC Rules Committee, eat your heart out. The Clinton campaign is in the final stages of a great shirt design contest, Chelsea Clinton told supporters in an e-mail (subject line: "An important decision...") on Tuesday. "We need your help to make a critical decision," the message begins; it ends with a thank-you for "everything you're doing to help my mom."

The five finalist designs include a riff on Hillary Clinton's signature pantsuit, a tribute to "everyone who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out" and a declaration that the Democratic presidential candidate "was for universal health care before universal health care was cool."

You can see the whole gallery here. Note: When you choose a favorite and enter your contact info, the link takes you - surprise - to a fundraising request.

Obama fans, here's the link to a variety of campaign-sanctioned shirts for you.

by Naftali Bendavid

The question of the hour seems to be: Should Barack Obama put Hillary Clinton on the ticket?

The idea of a Democratic "dream ticket," of course, has been out there a long time. It originated, you may recall, when Clinton began trailing Obama, and the Clinton camp floated the idea of a Clinton-Obama ticket to persuade voters they could vote for her and get him, too.

More recently it's come up as the natural consequence of one of the closest nomination battles in history. When a fight is this close, with the loser generating enormous support and passion in her own right, there's a certain logic to simply putting both candidates on the ticket. (The satirical newspaper The Onion suggested the possibility of a "nightmare ticket," featuring Obama, McCain and Clinton.)

The speculation has been fueled further by a couple of recent news reports. The New York Times suggested that Bill Clinton would like his wife to be Obama's running mate if she is not the nominee. CNN reported that extremely preliminary talks have begun between the two camps about an Obama-Clinton ticket. My sense is that there is no serious attempt, as yet, to make this happen.

by Matthew Hay Brown

PEÑUELAS, Puerto Rico -- A week before this U.S. territory votes in the Democratic primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton said today she would work to resolve the debate that has paralyzed island politics for generations -- during her first term in the White House.

"I will as your president on day one work with all of the factions here in Puerto Rico and with the Congress to enable you to determine your status by majority vote among all of the options that are available," she told several dozen supporters in this southern town on the Caribbean Sea. "I wish to get this accomplished within the first four years of my term."

Resolving the political status of this island of 4 million would be an ambitious goal. Islanders have long been split between statehood and the status quo; unless a clear majority emerges for change, Washington is unlikely to reconsider the current relationship.

Clinton, like Sen. Barack Obama, has been careful to avoid choosing sides in the status debate. Like other American politicians, they say they would support whatever option a clear majority of Puerto Ricans chooses.

During her first visit of the presidential campaign -- she stopped in the western town of Aguadilla on Saturday, and makes a couple of appearances in San Juan tonight -- Clinton highlighted her experience with Puerto Rico.

by Glenn Thrush

A year and a half ago, a senior Clinton ally, speaking privately to reporters, made the following prediction: "She's the favorite, but Obama's so good. Hillary only needs to make one or two mistakes and he'll be the the nominee."

To attribute the state of the race to Clinton's mistakes alone is to discount the quality of Obama's campaign and the depth of sentiment for change that exists in the Democratic party.

But Clinton insiders and analysts say the former first lady's missteps have contributed mightily to Obama's nearly insurmountable lead in overall delegates.

Here are 10 reasons the once-prohibitive frontrunner is finding herself on the verge of elimination:

1. MULTIPLE POLITICAL PERSONALITY DISORDER (MPPD). While Obama has stuck with an elegant hope-and-change message from start to finish, Clinton skittered from theme to theme before settling on a successful populist-with-a-punch formula.

One of Clinton's first hires was top strategist Mark Penn -- a cautious pollster known for slicing and dicing the electorate into "soccer moms" and other demographic niches. Penn's approach, campaign insiders say, was a fragmented, a la carte campaign whose message varied widely from day to day, leaving voters with a blurry image of an already complicated candidate.

"I like Mark but to have the same guy collect the data and interpret it was a big mistake," a longtime friend of both Clintons told Newsday. "Penn was a good match with Bill in the White House because Bill could warm things up and humanize Penn's strategy. Hillary doesn't have those same skills. It was a bad fit."

Penn's insistence that Clinton emphasize her toughness caused an internal tug-of-war over her image, with communications chief Howard Wolfson urging Clinton to stress her softer side.

2. THE INEVITABILITY FALLACY Clinton and her inner circle, including then-campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, simply believed there was virtually no way she could lose.

One longtime Clinton confidant said top staffers began to realize Obama was a "serious threat" by the early fall of 2007 but that "the candidate herself didn't really believe she could be beaten" until her third-place finish in Iowa.

"The original sin for Hillary was the sin of pride," said Ross Baker, a politics professor at Rutgers University.

by Bill Gibson

We've got six months of hard campaigning before Election Day, and already the presidential candidates are fighting over Florida.

John McCain and Barack Obama are competing for Cuban-American votes in Miami this week. Obama also will be courting Jewish voters and senior citizens in condo communities brimming with Democrats near the shores of Fort Lauderdale and Boca Raton.

Lest anyone forget her, Hillary Clinton will join the fray on Wednesday with a hurriedly planned swing through Florida, the primary state she won back in January to no avail.

This week's barnstorming in essence was the opening round of the general-election campaign in the biggest electoral state that could go either way this November. McCain seems to have an edge in Florida, but most political observers expect another close finish, much like the results of the past four presidential elections.

Sen. Barack Obama answers a question during the CNN/YouTube debate at The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina, Monday, July 23, 2007. (Gerry Melendez/The State/MCT)

by Frank James

Reporters are noticing that Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has been working overtime to finesse his nettlesome (for him) answer during one of the five million presidential debates that he would meet with the leaders of U.S. enemies without preconditions during his first year in office if he's elected president.

The answer has proven hugely problematic for Obama because it first gave Sen. Hillary Clinton and now Sen. John McCain an opening to attack him as a foreign-policy naif.

So Obama and his surrogates are doing what one does in Congress, they are revising and extending his remarks to willing media ears.

This ABC News piece captures what's going on:

The Obama campaign is now offering a more nuanced approach that would not necessarily include a presidential meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- and that stresses diplomatic work that would take place before any such meetings take place.

"He said he'd meet with the appropriate Iranian leaders. He hasn't named who that leader will be," Rice said on CNN. "It would be the appropriate Iranian leadership at the appropriate time -- not necessarily Ahmadinejad."

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton is right, at least about her ability to attract white voters when compared with Sen. Barack Obama. But you don't have to take her word for it. Here's part of the analysis by Gallup's editorial chief, Frank Newport:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee, will likely enter the general election with more of a handicap among white voters than would have been the case if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, based mainly on Clinton's stronger performance among white women.

A new Gallup Poll analysis of Daily tracking data collected between May 1 and May 17 shows that Clinton's edge among white voters is not, as some have hypothesized, based on Obama's problems among blue-collar white men, but reflects more the fact of Clinton's strength among white women.

So a lot of commentary about how white, blue-collar workers are Obama's main challenge may not tell the whole story or really missing the point, according to Newport. It may be white women who actually make the critical difference.

Clinton performs better than Sen. John McCain with this group, actually getting more support now from white women than the senator from Arizona.

But Obama runs behind McCain with white women, particularly those without college education.

by John Riley

Hillary Clinton, campaigning in Kentucky, sounds more and more like she's functioning in a parallel universe.

She said she has won based on the popular vote, if you count Michigan and Florida, which haven't counted since last year. She said she has won based on the winner-take-all Republican primary rules, which don't count because it's a Democratic primary. And, in a new twist, she says she's won in the Electoral College:

"The states that I've won total 300 electoral votes. The question is who can win 270 electoral votes? My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes." Except that the Electoral College only counts after you win the nomination.

Tomorrow, Obama is expected to win enough delegates to clinch an absolute majority in pledged delegates currently certified. A number of superdelegates have said they will support whoever gets a majority of pledged delegates. So he's expected to bring in another haul of superdelegates, too.

Now, however, his success and her apparent erosion have become fuel for Clinton. The worse things get, the more people say they're worse, the more resentment she can stir up. She has an ad up in Oregon attacking the pundits for saying that she 's in trouble. A new campaign memo attacks Obama based on a ten-day-old quote on a political website from an anonymous advisor saying that he's ready to declare victory.

Obama says he's not planning to. But why let the fact that it isn't happening, and that every big Democrat in the country is treating Hillary like a fragile eggshell who'll crack if she isn't constantly flattered, get in the way of fake outrage? What isn't happening is a "slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton's 17 million supporters," says the memo from Howard Wolfson.

Hillary says: "This is nowhere near over."

Reality check: It depends on the definition of "near." Even if she pulls off a political miracle, it's closer to the end than the beginning, isn't it?

The Onion, which does political satire well, has on idea of where this is going:

"Next vote wins!"

John Riley writes the Spin Cycle blog for Newsday

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton walks out of the home of Eddie and Robin Clark for a campaign rally in Prestonsburg, Ky., Monday, May 19, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

by Rick Pearson

PRESTONSBURG, Ky.--Deep in the coal-rich mountains of eastern Kentucky, Sen. Hillary Clinton began wrapping up her last full day of campaigning in the Bluegrass State before tomorrow's primary by telling supporters "there is no way that this is going to end anytime soon" despite Sen. Barack Obama's frontrunner status.

Acknowledging Obama will likely win Oregon while she expects to take Kentucky in tomorrow's ballot counting, Clinton and her supporters urged a large turnout to offset the perception driven by the daunting delegate math that the race is all but over.

"As of today, I have won more votes than any person who's ever run for president in either party to be nominated," she said, speaking to a crowd of several hundred people from the front porch of supporters Eddie and Robin Clark. "And I am so grateful for that. I lead Sen.Obama in the popular vote. I think that's a great indication and I'm hoping to add to those numbers tomorrow with your votes in Kentucky."

(AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

by Frank James

Here's an interesting thought: Sen. Barack Obama's legions of admirers and supporters should thank the Clintons because without them, Obama's road to the White House would be a lot steeper if not impossible.

Peter Beinart, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, makes that very compelling argument in an essay in Time magazine. Beinart's on to something.

For starters, Clinton deracialized American politics. He didn't deracialize it completely, of course. But knitting together a coalition of blacks and whites is easier today because Clinton restored the Democrats' credibility on economic issues and took three of the most racially toxic issues in U.S. politics--crime, welfare and affirmative action--off the table.

When Michael Dukakis ran for President in 1988, crime was perhaps the biggest issue in the campaign. It splintered his coalition, pitting blacks who saw the death penalty as racially unfair against blue-collar whites who demanded a hard line against crime and too often associated that crime with blacks. Today, by contrast, roughly 1% of Americans say crime is their top issue, and no one even knows what Obama's position on the death penalty is. For Obama, that's an enormous boon, and Bill Clinton deserves a lot of the credit. His policies--especially his bold proposal for 100,000 new cops--helped bring down the crime rate. And by embracing the death penalty, he eliminated one of the GOP's best wedge issues. That embrace was ugly at times, as when Clinton flew back to Arkansas during the 1992 campaign to oversee the execution of a mentally retarded man. But it was politically shrewd. And because Clinton did it then, Obama doesn't have to now.

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign has a message for Sen. Barack Obama: It's not over just because he, the entire press corps, much of the political establishment and millions of American voters say it is.

Here's a brief memo from the campaign:

To: Interested Parties
From: Howard Wolfson, Communications Director

While Senator Obama inaccurately declares himself the nominee, Senator Clinton will continue to work hard, campaigning for every vote in the upcoming states and making the case that she will be the best nominee to take on John McCain and be our next President.

Irony of ironies: The campaign that once used the inevitability of its candidate's nomination as a strategy now tells the campaign whose candidate appears inevitable to just hold on one cotton pickin' minute. You can't script this kind of stuff.

by Frank James

Terry McAuliffe, chairman of Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, issued a terse statement in the wake of the news that John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina and erstwhile presidential candidate, was endorsing Sen. Barack Obama.

"We respect John Edwards, but as the voters of West Virginia showed last night, this thing is far from over."

We suspect there might've been some stronger views expressed within the Clinton camp when they leaned of Edwards' decision which, coming a day after Clinton's big win in West Virginia, tends to dull the impact of her Tuesday night accomplishment, such as it was.

by Frank James

Why did Sen. Barack Obama refer to a reporter during a Michigan campaign stop as "sweetie?"

Was it an attempt by the Democratic presidential candidate to show his affinity for blue-collar folks by attempting to sound like a waitress at a diner?

In the same vein, was he trying for a little machismo in front of the male workers at a Sterling, Michigan auto manufacturing plant he visited today?

Needless to say, a lot of women and even some men aren't going to like it. Some will interpret it as Obama being dismissive to the point of being somewhat sexist.

I'm not saying that's the correct interpretation, just that that's what some people will read into his term of endearment.

I expect an e-mail from the Clinton campaign in 10,9,8,7,6...

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute accurately captures the voters' mood.

According to the poll, McCain runs behind both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a general-election matchup:

Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.

By Rick Pearson

LOUISVILLE--Fresh from declaring victory in West Virginia, Sen. Hillary Clinton is preparing to finish the week with high profile TV news appearances Wednesday, followed by a heavy travel schedule.

At least through Saturday, that schedule does not include Kentucky, which even Sen. Barack Obama's camp expects her to win big next Tuesday.

Those similar expectations didn't stop Clinton from a heavy West Virginia campaign schedule. But she's planning trips Thursday to South Dakota, which joins Montana in closing out the Democratic primary and caucus calendar June 3, and California where a fundraiser is likely.

California sets up as a West Coast launch pad for spending Friday and Saturday in Oregon--which conducts its primary next Tuesday along with Kentucky--and where Obama is favored

Sen. Hillary Clinton arrives for a series of votes on the U.S. Senate floor, May 13, 2008. (Photo: Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images)

by Rick Pearson

Hours before the polls closed in West Virginia, Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign turned on the spin machine, issuing a memo arguing that the state's Democratic presidential primary results really do matter regardless of rival Sen. Barack Obama's lead in convention nominating delegates and popular vote totals.

"Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy," the New York senator's campaign wrote.

"In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices," the Clinton camp wrote.

The words coming out of Clinton's campaign acknowledge the need for her to score a sizable victory to overcome a ho-hum belief that wins in West Virginia and next week in Kentucky are beside-the-point speed bumps in the way of an Obama nomination.

by Don Frederick

As 11-year-old Dalton Hatfield set about selling his earthly possessions, his parents thought he was doing his part to help pay for a family vacation.

Instead, he was doing his part to help his favored presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton. And on Friday, the young fellow made news when he presented a stunned Bill Clinton with a check for $440.

The former president, according an Associated Press story on the occasion, "seemed to nearly come to tears" as he accepted the donation at a fire station in Williamson, W.Va. (one of the many off-the-beaten-path locales where he has been rallying support for his wife).

The Hillary Clinton campaign, understandably, was so taken with the boy's gesture that today it posted the AP story on its website. Every little bit helps, after all, when it comes to erasing the $20-million debt that the campaign acknowledged on Sunday.

Killjoys that we are, we checked federal regulations just to make sure everything was on the up-and-up with Hatfield's contribution. And we are relieved to report ...

that it passes muster.

by John Riley

Chuck Schumer, at a Crain's Breakfast in New York City, sounds a note of optimism about the viability of an Obama/Clinton ticket:

"At first I thought it wasn't but I do think it could be."

About voters: "They're worried, and they want somebody to come in and say I can help a little bit you with healthcare, and paying for college, and all these things, and a Democratic candidate is more likely to do it. Hillary and Barack have both run very strong and great races, and I think they'd be a strong ticket together."

It's possible that's what he really thinks. But a lot of things -- the difficulty of selling the first black and the first woman in the same year; the lack of national security credentials; the idea that Hillary would spend eight years with less power than she had as First Lady or Senator; the fundamental disagreement on health care; the risks of Bill floating on the outskirts of a ticket and an administration -- counsel against the idea.

So what else could Schumer be up to?

Maybe the idea that a little flattery, and the ability to turn down the v-p slot, is part of what it'll take to ease Clinton out of the race....

John Riley writes the Spin Cycle blog for Newsday

by Frank James

Here's some news that may help the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama get through what's expected to be a difficult couple of primaries tomorrow and next Tuesday in West Virginia and Kentucky, respectively. Gallup says he's pulling ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton in its national polling for the first time in three weeks.

Among Democratic voters, Obama has a seven-point lead, 50 percent versus 43 percent, in its polling over Clinton, Gallup said. Here's a snippet.

Although Obama did not achieve an immediate bounce in national Democratic support after last week's primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, it could be that the subsequent political punditry, proclaiming the Clinton campaign is effectively over, is affecting voters.

Not good for Clinton, certainly. But there was still a nugget of good news for Clinton which was bad news for Sen. John McCain, the all but official Republican nominee.

by Frank James

In case you missed Saturday Night Live's latest (and we hope not the last) skit featuring "Sen. Hillary Clinton," here it is. SNL cast member Amy Poehler, as Clinton, gives three reasons why she should be the Democratic nominee. I won't spoil the jokes by giving them away.

by John Riley

New polls out today suggest Obama is in for a rough couple of weeks in West Virginia and Kentucky, which he'll have to weather by shaping perceptions in the media that the race is over.

In West Virginia, which votes tomorrow, he trails Clinton 60-24 in a Suffolk University poll. That's 36 points. Poll director David Paleologos: "Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November." A plurality of Democrats there still think Hillary will be the next president.

Obama is visiting the state today and will be introduced at a Charleston rally by Sen. Jay Rockefeller, but ... good luck. The state is stacked against him demographically, and will put an exclamation point on Clinton's argument that he can't get white blue-collar votes.

Then, ">another new poll shows that he trails Clinton 58-31 in Kentucky, which votes next Tuesday. Little wonder why he's been campaigning since Friday in Oregon, which he hopes to win on the same day he loses Kentucky. If Oregon pushes him into a majority of pledged (elected) delegates, he will hope for a superdelegate surge that will give him the nomination and relegate Kentucky to the back pages.

Still, a couple of blowout losses on the eve of winning the nomination will be a sobering reminder of how much work Obama has to do.

John Riley writes the Spin Cycle blog for Newsday