by Mike Memoli

The Cook Political Report, a respected non-partisan handicapper, has revised its House elections forecast to show the GOP on the verge of winning enough seats to reclaim the majority.

New rankings today in 10 seats held by Democrats all favor Republicans, with seven moving into the "Toss Up" category. That includes Illinois Rep. Debbie Halvorson's (D) 11th District seat, which had been classified as "Lean Democrat."

The new Cook projection is for a Republican net gain of between 35 and 45 seats, up from a 32 to 42 seat range. Republicans need to win a net of 39 seats to become the majority party again for the first time since 2007.

Overall, 40 seats are ranked as "Toss Up" races, 37 of which are held by Democrats today.

"While this would imply an advantage for Democrats, given the continuous erosion we have seen in dozens of contests so far this cycle, races shifting from Solid and Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic and Toss Up, we would be surprised if there was not more movement over the 78 days from now until Election Day," writes David Wasserman, Cook's House race analyst.

by Mike Memoli

For the first time in President Obama's term, Gallup finds that 50 percent of voters disapprove of how he has performed in office.

The pollster's three-day rolling average of presidential job performance from August 13-15 shows that just 42 percent approve, a new low. That survey window includes Obama's remarks on the Ground Zero-area mosque and his brief trip to Panama City Beach, Florida.

Some historical context from Gallup:

Obama's ratings in the low 40% range are not unusual in historical context. All presidents since Lyndon Johnson have suffered ratings below 40% at points in their presidencies, with several falling below 30%. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton were -- like Obama -- in the low 40% range during August of the second year of their presidencies. President George W. Bush left office in January 2009 with a 34% approval rating.

by Mike Memoli

The release of the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey Wednesday came with a timely quip from one of the lead pollsters: "I think it's a 'Jet Blue' election. Everyone is frustrated, and everyone is headed for the emergency exit."

Two new major national polls -- the aforementioned NBC/WSJ offering and another from CNN conducted by Opinion Research -- reflect a persistent sense of unease among voters, which typically is an ominous sign for the party in power -- currently Democrats. And to be sure, some specific findings by each show why Democrats exuberance over Tuesday primaries could be short lived.

President Obama's job approval rating is in negative territory in each survey -- 47 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove in the NBC/WSJ poll, while 47 percent approve and 51 percent approve in the CNN poll. The disapproval number in each matches the respective surveys' all-time worst figure.

Asked whether the country is better or worse off since Obama became president, 31 percent told NBC/WSJ it is better off while 40 percent say it's worse off.

While Obama's numbers are an important factor, more relevant to this year's midterm races is Congressional figures and the general views of the parties battling for control. And the picture there is good for neither, but particularly grim for Democrats.

(Photo Credit: AP / Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

by Mike Memoli

In a recent story on whether former President Bush would be a factor in the 2010 elections like he was in 2006 and 2008, I referred to a poll conducted by Benenson Strategy Group that tested the potency of an anti-Bush message for Democrats this year.

There was good news and bad news for the party in its findings. On the one hand, when respondents were asked to choose between a candidate who supported President Obama's economic policies or one who would return to those of his predecessor, they chose the former by a 15-point margin.

The bad news was that only 25 percent of those surveyed thought Republicans in Congress would return to the Bush agenda if elected, meaning that as things stand today, Bush-bashing was no magic bullet for Democrats in a toxic political climate.

Faced with these numbers, Democratic strategists could have looked at other messaging scenarios. But instead, based on what we've heard from candidates and even Obama himself of late, it seems they've decided that to move the needle back in their direction the party needs to make an aggressive push aimed at convincing voters that the current GOP would govern no differently than it did with Bush in the White House.

by Mike Memoli

Republicans are back on top in Gallup's tracking survey of Congressional election preferences, reversing a two-week boomlet for the majority Democrats.

The survey, conducted July 26-August 1, shows that 48 percent of respondents say they would vote for a Republican Congressional candidate this November, while 43 percent would back the Democrat. In the previous week, Democrats led in the generic matchup 48-44 percent.

From Gallup:

To the extent congressional passage of financial regulatory reform on July 15 was the impetus for the Democrats' subsequent gains, the effect has faded. Republicans' resurgence this past week could simply represent a return to the prior norm, but may also have been spurred by the Afghanistan war documents leak, the federal judge's ruling that blocked the implementation of certain aspects of the Arizona immigration law, and perhaps ethics investigations into two powerful senior Democratic members of the House, Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters.

by Mike Memoli

Bill Clinton's image took a bit of a beating during the 2008 presidential race, as his passionate advocacy on behalf of his wife's campaign occasionally led to trouble. But a new Gallup survey finds that the former president is now more popular than President Obama for the first time, with his favorability rating near his pre-campaign high.

In the national survey of more than 1,000 adults, 61 percent viewed Clinton favorably. That's up from a recent low of 50 percent in early 2008, and near his personal high of 63 percent in early 2007. By comparison, 45 percent view former President George W. Bush favorably, and 52 percent view Obama favorably.

Clinton is also viewed more favorably than Obama among Democrats -- 89 percent vs. 86 percent. Eighty-five percent of Republicans view Bush favorably.

Bush has also seen his favorability rating improve as he maintains a low profile in the second year of his post-presidency. His favorable rating has jumped 10 points since last polled in March 2009, and is at its highest since January 2007.

by Mike Memoli

Barack Obama's average job approval rating in the sixth quarter of his presidency ranks near the bottom of recent elected presidents, Gallup reported today.

Through the period beginning April 20 and ending July 19, Obama's average approval rating stood at 47.3 percent, the lowest in any quarter since he took office. Of the nine men who were elected president since 1952, only three others had average job ratings below 50 percent: two-term presidents Bill Clinton (46.1 percent) and Ronald Reagan (44.2 percent), as well as single-termer Jimmy Carter (41.8 percent).

George W. Bush had the strongest average job rating through the same period, at 74.9 percent.

Gallup notes that elected presidents with sub-50 percent approval ratings at this point "tended to see more significant midterm congressional seat losses than other presidents. This was particularly true for Reagan and Clinton."

by Mike Memoli

In a piece on the White House's midterm strategy, Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons noted that in a state like Pennsylvania, Democrats were concerned that the president could be a negative this fall.

"His numbers are low, and I suspect there are going to be areas of Pennsylvania where people are not going to be anxious for him to come and, quite frankly, he's not going to be anxious to come in," Kessler said, pointing to the reelection campaign of Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Murphy in the GOP-heavy Philadelphia suburbs: "Do you think Patrick Murphy wants President Obama to set foot in his district?"

A new Quinnipiac poll released today offers greater statistical evidence to that point.

Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 42 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012. In fact, 41 percent of voters say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate in 2012, while 40 percent say they would vote for Obama. Independent voters say they would go for a Republican 37 - 33 percent.

"When a politician's approval rating is down 13 points among independent voters, that is generally a sign of political vulnerability," said Brown. "The 6-point margin held by those who say President Obama doesn't deserve a second term over those who think he does also should make the White House nervous, especially since Pennsylvania has not voted Republican for president since 1988. Here too, his weakness is among independents, who say 51 - 35 percent he does not deserve a second term."

by Mike Memoli

A new Gallup survey puts President Obama's approval rating among independent voters below 40 percent for the first time, an ominous indicator of his support among swing voters who have begun to lean Republican this year.

One year ago, Obama posted a 56 percent approval rating among independent voters. That's down to 38 percent today. Among Republicans, support dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent. He is still strong among Democrats, though support fell from 90 percent to 81 percent.

Obama's overall job approval rating is at 46 percent, just shy of his lowest weekly average, Gallup reports.

by Mike Memoli

Two indicators to watch today that should concern Democrats greatly with just 134 days until the November elections.

My colleague Michael Muskal writes about Gallup's new survey measuring enthusiasm among Democratic and Republicans

Enthusiasm among Republicans and their allies has hit the highest level for a midterm election year since pollsters began tracking this measurement, Gallup announced on Monday.

The finding that an average of 59% of the Republicans and those independents leaning to them are enthusiastic about this year's election spells trouble for Democrats. Traditionally, the GOP counts on the enthusiasm of its voters to offset Democrats' edge in registered voters.

The findings also mean that Democrats can be expected to spend much of the summer appealing to independents, likely using the danger of a conservative takeover of Congress as a whip to get out their voters. "Tea party" favorites such as Rand Paul, the Senate candidate in Kentucky, and Sharron Angle, the Senate candidate in Nevada, will be the likely targets.

Also today the national committees boosting the major party candidates in House and Senate races released their monthly fundraising totals, reflecting that Republicans are increasingly speaking with their wallets as well. The National Republican Senatorial Committee says it raised $3.6 million in May, giving it $18.1 million cash on hand. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised more -- $5 million -- but spent more, and now has $17.6 million to spend. It's the first time the NRSC has had a cash on hand advantage.

On the House side, the National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its Democratic counterpart for the second month in a row , $5.4 million to $5.1 million. That's notable since the NRCC has lagged its Republican counterparts; it still faces a steep cash on hand deficit compared with the DCCC.

UPDATE: The exception, as pointed out by Paul West, is at the national committee level. The DNC outraised the RNC in May by just over $100,000. But if debts are included, the RNC does have more cash on hand.

by Mike Memoli

A new poll conducted after Tuesday's Oval Office address finds that Americans are less confident in President Obama's handling of the Gulf oil spill.

Forty-one percent of respondents in the CNN/Opinion research survey say they approve, down from 46 percent in a May survey, while 59 percent now disapprove, up from 51 percent. Two in three respondents also say the president has not been tough enough in dealing with the crisis.

Overall, only one-in-four voters surveyed approve of how the federal government in general has handled the crisis. But asked who they trust more to improve the situation, 54 percent say the government while 32 percent chose BP.

The survey does find overwhelming support for the idea of a fund created to compensate those impacted by the tragedy, something the White House and BP agreed upon Wednesday.

The survey finds Obama's overall job rating still in positive territory, with 50 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving, down slightly since late May. Conducted Wednesday, the survey of 534 adults has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

by Paul Richter

Confidence in President Obama among the world's Muslims is slipping, according to a poll of global attitudes that also found widespread concern that the United States remained a go-it-alone nation even under the new administration.

The survey, by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, found support for Obama had remained strong in most nations even while his approval rating at home had slipped. But in five of seven Muslim nations that were polled, he was regarded with approval by about one-third or less of respondents, and his popularity had slid over the last year.

The finding is likely to be of concern to the White House, which has worked hard to improve the American image abroad, particularly in the Muslim world.

Obama got his worst grades for his handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Of 22 nations polled, a majority supported his approach to the issue in only three -- France, Nigeria and Kenya.

Obama administration officials have been concerned about damage to the White House image in the Muslim world stemming from developments in Gaza, where Israel, a staunch U.S. ally, has been tightly restricting the flow of goods, citing the need to prevent Hamas militants in charge of Gaza from obtaining arms.

In Pakistan, the number of Muslims who approved of Obama fell from 15% to 8% over the last year. Among Muslims in Egypt, which receives billions of dollars in U.S. aid, support for Obama has fallen from 41% to 31%, and in Turkey, it has dropped from 33% to 23%.

Many of those polled said the United States didn't give enough consideration to the views of other countries when making decisions on international issues. The median number who said the United States acted unilaterally was 63%, down slightly from the 67% who used the same description in 2007, when George W. Bush was president.

In most countries, especially wealthier ones, Obama won strong support for the way he had handed the international economic crisis. The exception was the United States, where the number of those who approved of his approach was the same as those who disapproved.

by Mike Memoli

Democrats have quickly rebounded from a historically weak performance in the generic ballot test, and now match up evenly with Republicans in the latest Gallup survey.

The survey, conducted June 1 through 6, asked 1,378 registered voters which party's candidate they'd support in the Congressional election in November. Forty-six percent chose the Democrat, while 46 percent chose the Republican. In the previous survey the Republicans led 49-43 percent, the largest lead the GOP had ever held on this question in Gallup's history.

It should be noted that the change is within the survey's margin of error. And Gallup also concludes that "the political environment still looks favorable to the Republican Party just inside of five months before Election Day."

One important reason why: 46 percent of registered Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting in the coming midterm elections, while just 24 percent of Democrats say so. That enthusiasm gap is the largest of the year to this point, in part because it's the lowest level of enthusiasm among Democrats year to date.

by Mark Silva

If Barack Obama has his new economic pitch in focus, he may have some old-fashioned focus groups to thank.

Lorraine Woellert and Hans Nichols at Bloomberg News report that the president-elect's top political aides are "transplanting their campaign tactics to the policy arena, using data from polls and focus groups to shape the debate over a stimulus plan that may cost at least $775 billion.''

David Axelrod, Obama's chief political adviser, along with campaign media adviser Jim Margolis, is encouraging lawmakers to use the word "recovery" instead of recession, and "investment" instead of "infrastructure,'' they report, citing recommendations from focus-group research indicating that this will make it all more appealing.

Axelrod and Margolis briefed Senate Democratic leaders yesterday and their House counterparts today on details of the research, meeting participants report.

"Not unlike news organizations, we poll public attitudes about where the economy is," Robert Gibbs, Obama's choice for White House press secretary, said in an interview with Bloomberg. "We're not polling to see what should be in an economic-recovery plan."

by Frank James

We've seen many depictions of President-elect Barack Obama but never one quite like this. An artist whose work apparently requires a helicopter to be properly seen had a group of Chicago students and teachers help fill in a huge portrait of the next president. The people were kind of like points in a huge pointillist painting. It's weirdly interesting.

by Frank James

There's been precious little good economic news lately. But that somehow hasn't kept consumer sentiment from improving recently according to Gallup's pollsters.

As Gallup reports:

Consumer expectations are getting a little better as the new year gets underway. The percentage of consumers saying the economy is "getting better" minus the percentage saying it is "getting worse" improved to -58 points during the week ending Jan. 4, 2009, after having hit -70 in mid-December as a reflection of deteriorating consumer expectations.

Gallup notes the oddity of this, given the aforementioned lack of good news.

It seems rather ironic that consumer expectations for the future of the U.S. economy have improved somewhat even as President-elect Obama describes the economic situation as "dire," the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City suggests the outlook for the first half of 2009 is "grim," and recent economic reports show economic activity plummeted during the fourth quarter of last year. Of course, the uptick in consumer expectations could simply reflect more positive spirits associated with the Christmas/New Year's period. Lower gas prices may also be helping encourage consumers. However, it seems more likely that many consumers, like many on Wall Street, are encouraged by talk of an enormous government stimulus plan and the soon-to-arrive Obama inauguration.

by Mark Silva

As President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take the oath of office, most people worry that the nation is losing ground on an array of problems.

The one front on which a majority of Americans believe the nation actually is making progress: Minority discrimination. 53 percent see progress there.

That's a notable exception in a long list of concerns on which most Americans see the nation as losing ground, according to a survey run by the Pew Research Center.

With a federal budget deficit now projected at $1.2 trillion this year, it's little surprise that the greatest majority of those surveyed see the country as losing ground on the deficit: 79 percent.

With unemployment soaring, a similar attitude prevails about job availability: 72 percent say we're losing ground.

Sixty-percent say we're losing ground on the cost of living, 59 percent on the gap between the rich and poor, 56 percent in lowering moral standards, 56 percent in health care, 52 percent in poverty and homelessness, 50 percent in education.

"Notably, the only issue where most people see progress being achieved is no doubt related to Obama's historic election: 53 percent say the country is making progress on discrimination against minorities, compared with just 15 percent who say the country is losing ground, and 28 percent who see little change,'' Pew reports. "During the mid-1990s, far fewer people said progress was being achieved reducing discrimination (40 percent in 1995, 38 percent in 1994).

The survey was conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults and carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percent - which always makes it possible that a majority of people don't really think we are making progress on that one front (but we'll err on the side of optimism here in the Swamp.)

by Mark Silva

Perhaps it's a measure of how much Americans are counting on the next president to steer the nation out of its economic ditch that confidence in President-elect Barack Obama has only grown since Election Day.

The Gallup Poll started daily tracking surveys of public confidence in Obama after the election. In the first take of the three-day average of daily samples, 65 percent of those surveyed voiced confidence in the Democratic winner of the Nov. 4 election.

Just 28 percent in that Nov. 5-7 sample said they were not confident in Obama's ability to be a good president.

In the latest snapshot, the average from Dec. 27-30, a full 69 percent of those surveyed voiced confidence in Obama's ability to be a good president, and fewer now - 22 percent - said they are not confident.

That's probably a measure of how Obama has reacted to the economic crisis consuming the nation, with his vow to pursue a swift and robust stimulus. It's also a daunting challenge for the president who will be sworn in on Jan. 20 - living up to the rising expectations greeting his presidency.

by Mark Silva

Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20.

This is what the road looked like through the windshield, driving through 2008 (with a review of the Gallup Poll's more interesting findings during the year ending tonight):

• In January, after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, a hypothetical match-up between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama puts McCain ahead of Obama, 50% to 45% and more said they prefer a tested leader than say they prefer an inspiring one.

• In February, despite neither candidate in the Democratic primary contest having yet secured enough delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination, 70 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans predicted Obama would be the eventual winner.

• In March, McCain's favorable rating hit 67 percent, the highest of any of the three major presidential candidates and his highest since February of 2000. More than a quarter of Clinton supporters (28 percent) said they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama were the Democratic nominee.

• In April, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts topped the wish lists of Republicans surveyed for McCain's vice presidential running mate.

• In May, Slightly more likely voters said McCain's association with President Bush made them less likely to vote for McCain (38 percent), than those who said Obama's association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright diminished their likelihood of voting for Obama (33 percent).

• In June, confidence in Congress reached its lowest point ever, just 12 percent, and the lowest Gallup had ever measured for any institution.

by Mark Silva

People may be making some New Year's resolutions, but apparently relatively few are planning to turn over a new leaf in the looming new year.

That may have something to do with the fact that people who made big resolutions last year had trouble keeping them.

Only 40 percent report that it's very likely or somewhat likely that they will turn over that new leaf, while 60 percent say it's unlikely that they will pledge to making any change in 2009, a Marist Poll has found.

Losing weight is a perennial goal, of course - and 20 percent of Americans surveyed say they will vow to lose weight in the new year.

Shedding a bad habit or quitting smoking are among the leading hopes, as usual, but a new pledge has made the Top 3 this season, Marist reports: 12 percent say they will spend less money in 2009 - bumping the goal of "being a better person'' to lower on the list.

Now, 60 percent of Americans who did make a resolution last year kept their promise for at least part of the year, Marist notes. But 40 percent admit to failing to keep those resolutions.

The Marist survey of 1,003 Americans was run Dec. 9-10. The possible margin of error is 3 percent.

by Mark Silva

Talk about honeymoons:

One in three Americans surveyed call President-elect Barack Obama the most admired man living anywhere in the world - ranking him atop the Gallup Poll's annual Most Admired Man List.

Couple this with the fact that Gallup's daily measure of public confidence in Obama's promise as president is holding steady at 66 percent through some rough times, and the incoming president would appear to be riding a wave of great expectations.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, Obama's designee for Secretary of State, tops the Most Admired Woman List, albeit with a rating of 20 percent.

"No one comes close to matching Obama in percentage mentions on this year's list of most admired men, '' Gallup reports of the findings of its survey conducted Dec. 12-14. President Bush held a somewhat higher rating on this scale in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, but nothing close to Obama's standing before election.

By contrast, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin makes a strong showing in second place for Most Admired Woman, garnering 11 percent of all mentions,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad notes.

"The 32 percent of Americans naming Obama as the man they most admire is extraordinarily high, nearly matching the 39 percent of Americans who named George W. Bush in the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks,'' she notes.

"At that time, Bush's presidential job approval rating was a soaring 86 percent. It is also higher than former presidents Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush received in any of their appearances on Gallup's Most Admired Man list.

But Obama is the first president-elect since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 to top the list. And he has done it with a runaway high figure. By comparison, Bush was named by just 5 percent of Americans in December of 2000. In December of 1992, President-elect Bill Clinton ranked second behind outgoing president George H.W. Bush, with 15 percent. And in 1988, then President-elect Bush achieved third place, with 9 percent.

by Mark Silva

Many Americans, while cutting back on their holiday spending in the midst of a sour economy, expect an improvement in the economy in the year ahead, a new poll finds.

The percentage of Americans who say the country is off on the wrong track has dropped 20 points from "a dramatic 84 percent high last October,'' according to the findings of the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News poll.

And the numbers are "influenced by the public's overwhelmingly positive reaction to the pending presidency of Barack Obama,'' according to a poll analysis by Jill Darling.

"Even though the economic news has been relentlessly negative and nine out of 10 in the survey agreed that the economy is doing poorly, there was some hope that it may have hit bottom - fewer than one in five said they think there is worse news to come,'' Darling reports of the Times-Bloomberg survey.

The poll found public support for an Obama-styled plan to combine tax cuts with public works spending and an extension of unemployment funds despite the cost of these initiatives.

Nine in ten of those surveyed say the economy is doing poorly. This is similar to the assessment registered in a Times-Bloomberg poll taken in October.

Yet, when asked to predict what the economy might look like six months from now, four in five said they think it won't degrade any further. This includes a 45 percent plurality who believe it may not be much different next summer. Roughly twice as many say it will get better than those who say it will continue to get worse.

by Mark Silva

The lame-duck President Bush has pretty much nowhere to go but up from here, in his public approval ratings, that is.

And that's pretty much where lame-duck presidents have gone during the time between the elections of their successors and their departures from office - up.

Bush's bleak job approval at the moment - 28 percent in the latest daily Gallup Poll - is not as bad as his 24-point low. And if history is any guide, George W. Bush may well be buffing up those numbers before he departs for Texas. Or, like LBJ, he may be wearing the albatross of a war, and now a tanking economy as well, that holds those outgoing numbers in check.

"It is common for presidents who are about to leave the White House to receive a bump in their job approval ratings between Election Day and Inauguration Day,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones writes. "Of the eight post-World War II presidents who left office after serving two terms, declining to seek an additional term, or being defeated for re-election, six saw increased job approval ratings in their final two-plus months in office.

"The last three presidents, and four of the last five who departed at the end of a term, saw significant rises in their ratings. Some of these increases were evident beginning with the first poll conducted after the election.''

Bush's own father saw "the largest spike'' in approval during lame-duck season. Only 34 percent of Americans surveyed approved of the job that the 41st president was doing in October 1992, just before Bill Clinton defeated him. Immediately after that vote, Bush's approval jumped to 43 percent in the Gallup Poll and kept going to 56 before he was finished - "a remarkable increase of 22 percentage points.''

Ronald Reagan was running at 51 percent approval before the 1988 election for his successor, his vice president, Bush. And Reagan climbed to 63 percent at the end - a fine departure.

Bill Clinton gained nine points as a lame duck, Gerald Ford eight, and even Lyndon Johnson, besieged by the war in Vietnam and forfeiting a chance to seek reelection, gained seven points on the way out.

by Frank James

If Republicans didn't have bad luck, they wouldn't have any luck at all, it seems.

Gallup's pollsters have found that Americans have an even more unpopular view of the Republican Party now than they had on Election Day.

An excerpt from Gallup's report:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Republican Party's image has gone from bad to worse over the past month, as only 34% of Americans in a Nov. 13-16 Gallup Poll say they have a favorable view of the party, down from 40% in mid-October. The 61% now holding an unfavorable view of the GOP is the highest Gallup has recorded for that party since the measure was established in 1992.

Meanwhile, Americans view Democrats about as positively now as they did on Election Day, with Democrats getting a 55 percent favorable rating. That would seem to indicate that Democrats have a good amount of political capital to expend when the new Obama Administration and Congress take charge in January.

Back to the Republicans. One of the Gallup's most interesting findings was this: it was 78 percent of Republicans want the party to become more conservative while only 12 percent want it to become less conservative.

by Mark Silva

While Congress may be reluctant to bail out the ailing American auto industry, most Americans support the idea of a federal loan to the automakers, a poll shows.

Fifty-five percent of those surveyed this week said the government should offer loans to the auto industry, according the survey run by pollster Peter Hart.

Now here's the disclosure: Hart is a reputable pollster, and well-known on the political front. But the client for the survey run by Peter D. Hart Resarch Associates on this issue was commissioned by General Motors. GM, Hart insists, had "no input or review of the design, methodology, content or interpretation of the survey.''

The pollster suggests that fear of a looming economic catastrophe is what motivates most Americans supporting the idea of a federal bailout, with 60 percent sayiing a collapse of the auto industry would augur a depression. At best, 84 percent say it would harm the U.S. economy.

The poll of 804 adults conducted Nov. 11-12 has a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. And a possible political incredibility factor, based solely on the sponsor, and not the pollster, of about 50-50. See the poll: Hart poll

by Frank James

Here's a major indicator of just how much of a honeymoon President-elect Obama is enjoying: nearly half of conservatives say they believe he'll make a good president, according to a Gallup Poll.

Here's an excerpt:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The extent to which Barack Obama is experiencing a post-election wave of good will from Americans is evident in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results, from Nov. 9-11, in which close to half of political conservatives -- 45% -- say they are "confident in his ability to be a good president." About the same percentage (46%) disagree.

by Mark Silva

Democrat Barack Obama won the White House "on the strength of a substantial electoral shift toward the Democratic Party and by winning a number of key groups in the middle of the electorate,'' the Pew Research Center reports today, based on exit polling.

Overall, 39 percent of those who voted were Democrats, 32 percent Republicans - "a dramatic shift from 2004 when the electorate was evenly divided.''

"Barack Obama gained the support of more voters in the ideological "middle" than did either John Kerry or Al Gore before him. He won at least half the votes of independents (52 percent vs. 49 percent for Kerry), suburban voters (50 percent vs. 47 percent for Kerry), Catholics (54 percent vs. 47 percent for Kerry), and other key swing groups in the electorate.
"Without a doubt,'' Pew adds, " the overwhelming backing of younger voters was a critical factor in Obama's victory, according to an analysis of National Election Pool exit polls.... Obama drew two-thirds (66 perecent) of the vote among those younger than age 30.

"Obama drew two-thirds (66 percent) of the Hispanic vote, a 13-point improvement over Democratic Sen. John Kerry's support in 2004. Obama also gained seven points among African American voters (95 percent vs. 88 percent for Kerry), and managed to slightly improve on Kerry's share of the white vote (43 percent vs. 41percent for Kerry).''

by Frank James

Mark Blumenthal, who runs the Pollster.com website, has an interesting analysis this afternoon on how the polls did compared with the actual results. The bottom line? The most recent polls were very accurate.

Also, the dreaded Bradley Effect, the phenomenon of African-American candidates performing worse on Election Day than they do in polls because of crypto racism, didn't show up. There's a question of whether it really ever existed at all but if it does, it wasn't discernible in the numbers.

An excerpt from Blumenthal's post.

Again, votes are still being counted in some states, so the numbers in the table may still change, but one thing seems unambiguous: There was no "Bradley effect" yesterday -- no hidden McCain vote lurking among the undecided. In the states that were polled most heavily, the trend estimates came remarkably close to the actual result. The undecided vote did not appear to "break" decisively toward either candidate. If anything, the undecided may have gone in Obama's direction in Pennsylvania, a state that the McCain campaign suggested was "functionally tied" on the supposition that Obama would get "what he gets" in the polls with the rest going to McCain. Our final Pennsylvania trend estimate showed Obama leading by 7.1 point (with 50.8% of the vote). Obama won Pennsylvania by a 10.3% margin, getting 54.6% of the vote.

President-elect Barack Obama in Union, Mo., Wednesday, July 30, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

by Frank James

I haven't had a chance to read as much of the day-after election coverage as I would've liked since I was traveling from traditionally Blue Illinois to nouveau Blue Virginia.

But one anecdote that stuck out in all the coverage I pored over today was in the New York Times' story about how President-elect Obama's campaign team ran a near perfect effort to win.

It was in what journalists call the "kicker" of the story.

Evidently, in recent weeks, people in the Obama and McCain campaigns saw whites who had revealed some racial bias in their survey responses start to shift to Obama.

Here's the great kicker:

In Mississippi, Stuart Stevens, a longtime political strategist who had worked for both Mr. McCain and Mitt Romney in the primaries, was surveying polling data for a Republican client. He was picking up on an unexpected shift for Mr. Obama, even among white voters. As he put it in an interview: If a house is on fire, the owner does not care what color the fireman is.

by Frank James

The highly regarded Ohio Poll sponsored by the University of Cincinnati predicts that Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, will win Ohio.

If Obama does beat Sen. John McCain in Ohio, it would represent a seismic shift in presidential politics since no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

President Bush relied on Ohio to deliver the votes that allowed him to defeat Sen. John Kerry in 2004 and give him a second term. If Obama wins Ohio, it's difficult to see McCain winning in enough other places to capture 270 Electoral College votes and it could point to an Electoral College landslide and a relatively early call of the presidential race tomorrow evening.

An excerpt from their press release:

Cincinnati, OH--The final Ohio Poll for the 2008 election season finds Senator Barack Obama likely towin Ohio's 20 electoral votes.

In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 2.7 percent.

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain and his team have talked in recent days about closing the polling gap with Sen. Barack Obama.

That may be true in some of the battleground state polls though even that is under some dispute between partisans on both sides.

But the Gallup Poll is suggesting that the race is not tightening, at least not on a national level.

An excerpt of Gallup's report:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

by Frank James

There's been a good back and forth this week between Democratic and Republican pollsters.

Stan Greenberg of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, a Democratic pollster, sent out his own analysis of the presidential race this afternoon, to counter one distributed earlier in the week by Bill McInturff, official pollster for Sen. John McCain's campaign.

McInturff said he saw a number of indicators pointing to the race tightening significantly and being "functionally tied across the battleground states."

Greenberg disagreed. "The structure of this race just has not changed as we have moved to the finish line," he said in his response to McInturff, meaning that the Democratic pollster sees Sen. Barack Obama still leading by a significant margin in the swing states.

Both letters are worth reading although most people will probably agree with the pollster whose view reflects their own.

by Mark Silva

"History is on the side of Barack Obama,'' the folks at the Gallup Poll report today, noting that only twice during the past 14 presidential elections did the candidate who was running ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before Election Day not end up winning the popular vote .

That was George W. Bush, who ended up winning by the electoral vote count in 2000, and Jimmy Carter, who was retired in 1980.

In only one contest, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind in the late polling (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election.

And today, Obama is up 9 points over Republican John McCain in the Gallup daily track.

by Mark Silva

On average, Democrat Barack Obama's advantage over Republican John McCain in national polling stood at 8 percentage points this week.

That's up from six points the previous week, Bloomberg News notes in a wrap-up of polls watched by RealClearPolitics.com.

And the average belies some big spreads recorded this week: The CBS/New York Times poll portraying a 13 point advantage for Obama, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing a 10 point lead for Obama and the ABC/Washington Post poll showing 9 points for Obama.

In the more critical count of potential electoral votes, Obama also has built advantages in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio and an edge in GOP strongholds such as Virginia and North Carolina.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, looking at McCain's standing two weeks out, told Bloomberg: "No one has come from this far back in this little time."

by Mark Silva

(The well-financed) Barack Obama is giving John McCain a run for his (public) money in several traditionally "red'' states, according to new CNN/Opinion Research surveys:

In Nevada: Obama favored by 51 perecent of likely voters, McCain 46, in a survey taken Sunday through Tuesday. That's a little wider than a four-point spread found at the end of September.

In North Carolina, Obama 51, McCain 47 among likely voters in the new survey. They were dead even in an early October survey.

In Ohio, Obama 50, McCain 46 among the likely voters, roughly the same spread found in early October.

In Virginia, Obama 54, McCain 44, in a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the 1960s. That's pretty much the same spread that was found in late September.

The margins of error in the Oct. 19-21 surveys range from 3.5 to 4 percent, meaning its close to a statistical tie in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, with Obama holding a significant edge in the Old Dominion.

by Mark Silva

After the votes are cast Nov. 4, many will be asking how effective the highest-temperature attack tactics of the two presidential contenders were in the campaign.

And when the votes are cast, enthusiasm for the candidates may have a lot to do with turnout for each.

On both fronts, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll today holds findings worth noting:

 56 percent of all likely voters surveyed say Republican John McCain and the GOP have attacked Democratic nominee Barack Obama unfairly.

 40 percent say Obama and his party have attacked McCain unfairly.

 Among the Democrats surveyed, 51 percent said they are extremely enthusiastic about voting for president this year, 25 percent very enthusiastic.

 Among the Republicans, 28 percent are extremely enthusiastic, 26 percent very.

 11 percent of the Democrats are not too enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic about voting, while 18 percent of the Republicans are not too or not at all enthusiastic.

The survey was run Friday through Sunday, and the results for the sample of 746 likely voters in the poll have a plus or minus 3.5 percentage point possible margin of error.

by Mark Silva

Democrat Barack Obama swept the season's series of televised presidential debates, according to the people whom the Gallup Poll surveyed after each of the debates, in a series ending this week.

Three for three.

And Obama finished strong, the surveys show. In each of the last two debates, 56 percent of those surveyed said Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain did - with Obama scoring a solid 26 percentage point edge in the final showdown this week. In their first encounter, the ratings were closer - 46 Obama, 34 McCain.

In addition, the debates had a more positive impact on Obama's overall approval ratings than they had on McCain's. After the final debate this week, 37 percent of those surveyed said they had a more favorable impression of Obama after the show, while 47 percent said their view was unchanged. And 29 percent said they had a less favorable impression of McCain, with 49 percent unchanged.

At the same time, Gallup reports that polling in past races suggests that debates "generally to little to transform the presidential election.'' Democrat John Kerry, for example, was viewed as the winner of all three presidential debates in 2004 in Gallup's surveys, but still lost the election to President Bush.

"Roughly two-thirds of Americans reported tuning in to each of the three presidential debates, including 63 percent for the Sept. 26 debate largely focused on foreign policy, 66 percent for the Oct. 7 town-hall-style debate, and 65 percent for the most recent debate, which concentrated on domestic policy,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones reports. That is somewhat higher than the Nielsen TV ratings would indicate.

The latest survey of 1,015 adults was conducted Thursday, the day after the last debate. The results have a possible margin of error of plus or minus three points.

Fore more on the Obama-McCain debates, see Gallup.

by Mark Silva

People aren't panicking about the economy, but it's taking a toll on John McCain, according to the newest Pew Research Center poll.

Many people are cutting back on planned spending , the survey out today show. However, most voters see things as getting better over the coming year. Still, just 36 percent say they are very confident about the safety of banks.

And, as for that presidential contest: Barack Obama holds a 10 point advantage over MicCain in the Pew poll -- 50-40 percent -- among registered voters. It's Obama 49, and McCain 42 among likely voters.

Just 29 percent say the Republican nominee has done an excellent or good job explaining how he might handle the current financial problems. Obama drew a 48 percent rating on this question, short of 50 percent but nearly 20 points up on McCain.

For the rest on the Obama-McCain matchup and the economy, see Pew's report.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama's lead in Gallup's tracking poll has increased a percentage point to 52 percent versus 41 percent for Sen. John McCain.

This is how Gallup reports it:

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor"). -- Jeff Jones

The curves for Obama and McCain are really starting to get a lot of daylight between them which is obviously a growing problem for the McCain camp.

Karl Rove recently wrote this in Newsweek:

But the race is tight, no candidate can get above 50 percent for more than a day or two, and it is likely to stay close right to the end.

If the current trend continues, Rove's statement will no longer be operative.

by Mark Silva

The "gender gap'' in support for Barack Obama and John McCain is particularly pronounced in some of the "battleground'' states where the Democrat and Republican are vying for the presidency.

And the apparent initial impact that Sarah Palin -- the first female Republican nominee for vice president - had on support for McCain among women is "settling out'' now, according to a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. "It seems the effect of Sarah Palin is not one that seems to be long-lasting,'' the center's Susan Carroll said today.

In Florida, for instance, a state which few Democrats - and only Southern Democrats - have carried since the 1960s, Obama's apparent advantage over McCain is buoyed by women - women sided with Obama over McCain there by a 12-point margin in a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Obama 57 percent, McCain 42 among women surveyed.

Obama also held a nine-point edge over McCain among women in Pennsylvania and seven-point edge among women in Ohio in recent Quinnipiac surveys in those states. And a new network television poll today is showing an 11 percentage point gender gap favoring Obama in Ohio.

"A review of recent polls in 14 states where the contest is expected to be very close finds gender gaps in every state,'' the Center reports. "In each case, women voters support the Democratic ticket more strongly than men do. Even where voters overall are equally split or favor the Republican ticket, a majority of women voters favors the Democrats.''

Nationally, that gap has appeared somewhat smaller - 49-45 for Obama among women in a CBS News-New York Times poll taken before the debate between Palin and Obama running mate Joe Biden. It was 56-47 for Obama among women in an ABC News-Washington Post poll a few days before that.

Yet that tends to correspondent with the gender gap between the parties in past elections, the center notes - "Despite all the talk of disaffected Hillary Clinton voters and the fact that Sarah Palin might pull some women voters from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket,'' notes Caroll, a senior scholar at the center, part of the Eagleton Institute for Politics at Rutgers.

She predicted today that the "gender gap'' will fall in Obama's favor somewhere between four and 11 percentage points on Election Day .

by Mark Silva

Polls conducted in several states that President Bush carried in 2004 show Republican presidential nominee John McCain "struggling'' with his Democratic rival, according to a report this morning from Time magazine, CNN and Opinion Research Corp, which conducted the surveys.

McCain holds a five-point advantage over Democrat Barack Obama in Indiana among likely voters, 51-46 percent, but is tied 48-48 among registered voters., in a two-way matchup. Add Libertartian Bob Barr to the lineup and McCain's advantage among likely voters shrinks to 48-46, in a poll with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points in the likely-voter match.

In New Hampshire, it's Obama 53, McCain 45 among likely voters and Obama 52-44 among registered voters. Add Libertarian Barr and it's Obama 51, McCain 43.

In North Carolina: a dead heat, 49-49 among likely voters, Obama 50, McCain 49 among registered voters. Add Bob Barr and it's Obama 50-49 to McCain in both counts.

In Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 47 among likely voters, Obama 50, McCain 46 among registered voters. Add Bob Barr, Obama 48, McCain 45 among the likely. Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, registers 3 percent in the expanded ballot. And there is a 3.5 percent possible margin of error in the likely sample, a virtual tie at the top.

In Wisconsin, Obama 51 percent, McCain 46 percent among likely voters, and the split is 51-45 among registered voters. Nader (4) draws more than Barr (1) in the expanded match, leaving Obama with 50 percent, McCain 42 percent.

And in North Carolina, a state that Bush carried by 12 percentage points in his reelection, it's a virtual tie: Obama 49 percent, McCain 48 percent, Barr 2 percent, among likely voters and registered voters as well, in the Time, CNN, Opinion Research polls.

by Mark Silva

President Bush will step out today for a pep-talk about the economy, a badly stumbling economy that he had called fundamentally "sound'' not many months ago.

He will be talking at an office products company in suburban Chantilly, Va., about the economic stabilization act which Congress has passed at his insistence, a $700-billion bailout of the nation's bankers that may take some time to show political profit.

Bush's own bottom-line has reached a new low at the same time, with the president's public approval rating dropping to 25 percent in the latest Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, since passage of the bailout. This marks the lowest point of Bush's presidency and it stands only three points higher than the all-time low in the history of Gallup's post-World War II polling of presidential approval.

With the president's sinking public approval comes a lack of confidence in his ability to handle the economy. A separate CNN poll has found that fewer than 30 percent of those surveyed voice confidence in Bush's ability to deal with the economy.

Confidence in the candidates for president is split, with 50 percent voicing confidence in Republican John McCain's ability to handle the economy in that CNN poll and 68 percent voicing confidence in Demcorat Barack Obama's ability - which speaks to the reason that Obama has gained an overall advantage in national opinion polling in the midst of the current economic crisis.

As for Bush, however, he may have had the political capital to pass the bailout - he also had a national sense of urgency on his side. But his ability to convince Americans to remain confident about the outcome of the government's intervention in the economy may be another story.

The president's approval rating in the Gallup Poll stands just one point higher than Richard Nixon's lowest job approval rating of 24 percent, measured in the summer of 1974, before his resignation. It stands just three points higher than Harry Truman's all-time Gallup low job-approval rating of 22 percent, measured in 1952.

"The current poll recording Bush's low job approval rating was conducted after Congress passed the economic rescue bill on Oct. 3,'' Gallup's Frank Newport notes.

"Americans recognize the economy as the nation's top problem, but apparently, the passage of this bill -- which the Bush administration had heavily advocated -- did nothing to affect Bush's approval ratings. Indeed, only 55 percentof members of Bush's own party approve of him in the poll, perhaps a reflection of some pushback from conservatives who do not strongly support the economic bill. Nineteen percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president.''

The ratings come from a survey of 1,011 adults conducted Oct. 3-5 and carry a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

by Mark Silva

Last week's televised debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden may have been one of the best-watched ever, but apparently it didn't change too many minds about Palin.

While most voters surveyed hold a favorable view of Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, most also say that she is not qualified to serve as president, should that situation present itself - 52 percent said no in a Pew Research Center survey conducted over the weekend among people who had been surveyed before the debate. Basically the same number that said so before the debate.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, apparently did himself some good in the one vice presidential debate. The numbers holding a favorable view of the Democratic vice presidential nominee climbed from 54 to 63 percent after the debate - and the percentage of those surveyed saying that Biden is qualified to serve as president rose from 69 to 77 percent.

The new survey of 710 registered voters who had been interviewed the week before was conducted Friday through Sunday.
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The survey also found that congressional passage of the financial market bailout on Friday did nothing to increase public support for it. "Overall, people who were interviewed over the weekend are even more divided as to whether this is the right thing or the wrong thing for the government to be doing (42 percent right thing vs. 39 percent wrong thing),'' Pew's Andy Kohut reports. "In the Sept. 27-29 survey, 45 percent said it was right for the government to invest billions of dollars to try to secure financial markets and institutions, while 38 percent said it was the wrong thing.''

Forty-one percent of all households tuned into the vice presidential debate, Nielsen has found - the second-most-watched of any presidential or vice presidential debate. And today, Nielsen reports that 61 percent of all households have watched at least one of the debates so far - the first one between presidential nominees Barack Obama and John McCain or the only one between Palin and Biden. Nielsen also has found that 30 percent tuned in to both debates.
Older viewers, those 55 and older, accounted for the largest share of both debate audiences - 42 and 36 percent. The Biden-Palin debate, with its much larger audience (69.9 million watching, versus 52 million for Obama-McCain) drew a slightly younger audience - with a median age of 52, versus the median of 54 for Obama-McCain.

The second of three presidential debates comes Tuesday night, at 9 pm EDT.

by Frank James

If Sen. John McCain's efforts to go after Sen. Barack Obama's character are having any negative effect on the senator from Illinois, it's not yet discernible in the latest Gallup overnight tracking poll which shows the Democratic presidential nominee leading his Republican counterpart by eight percentage points.

Here's what Frank Newport of Gallup writes:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters across the country by a 50% to 42% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 3-5, the tenth straight day in which Obama has held a statistically significant lead.

Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.

by Mark Silva

Who's doing a better job of dealing with the Wall Street crisis?

Barack Obama, according to a new survey.

Better than Republican presidential rival John McCain, the Gallup Poll has found, and better even than the Democratic leaders of Congress. Indeed, the Democratic senator from Illinois is the one figure in this survey whose approval ratings outweigh his disapproval ratings on this question.

Obama won the approval of 46 percent of those surveyed Friday and Saturday - before the congressional leadership agreement on a $700-billion bailout for the financial industry was announced on Sunesday.

Both Obama and McCain were rated better for their responses to the Wall Street crisis than their own parties in Congress were rated. Obama's approval: 46 percent. McCain's: 37 percent. Democratic leaders: 39 percent. Republican leaders: 41 percent.

The Gallup survey included interviews before, during, and after the first debate between Obama and McCain Friday night. The survey of 1,011 adults has a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.''

by Mark Silva

As Barack Obama and John McCain prepare to debate their views of the world and America's role in it tonight, voters are voicing wariness about the sort of foreign policy that the United States has pursued for several years now.

The public is feeling "much better about how the war in Iraq is going these days,'' the Pew Research Center reports, "but at the same time has a sharply diminished appetite for U.S. efforts to deal with an array of global problems.

"Fewer people than at any point in this decade assign high priority to such foreign policy goals as preventing genocide, strengthening the United Nations, promoting and defending human rights, and reducing the global spread of AIDS and other infectious diseases,'' Pew reports of a poll released this week.

"There also is decreased support for an assertive national security policy,'' the survey found. "Fully 45 percent say that reducing U.S. overseas military commitments should be a top policy priority, up 10 points since 2004. Notably, even the goal of halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - a widely shared objective for nearly two decades - is now viewed as less important.''

Nearly six-in-ten Americans (58 percent) say the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going well, the highest percentage in more than four years.

"Yet improving perceptions about the situation in Iraq have done little to increase support for maintaining U.S. troops there,'' Pew reports. " Half of the public views the war as the wrong decision, while the same percentage favors withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq as soon as possible; these figures have declined only modestly in recent months.

"By contrast, there is strong public support for maintaining U.S. forces in Afghanistan - a notable exception to the broader trend against global engagement.

McCain's "consistent advantage'' over Obama on foreign policy and national security "may be limited to some extent by the public's focus on domestic issues,'[ Pew notes. "While swing voters say McCain could best deal with foreign policy by a 52 percent to 25 percent margin, they along with most Americans believe that the next president should focus on domestic issues rather than foreign policy. ''

The survey on foreign policy attitudes by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations.

The survey of 2,982 adults was conducted Sept. 9-14. For more on the poll of American views on foreign policy , see the Pew Research Center's report.

by Mark Silva

Wal-Mart shoppers are with John McCain.

The Starbucks crowd is divided.

These are among the findings of a poll conducted by National Public Radio, not necessarily associated with Sam's Club in most people's minds, in 14 critical battleground states.

The NPR battleground poll reported by Morning Edition today portrays McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, with a slight advantage - a statistical tie, really - in 14 states in which the 2008 presidential election most likely will be decided: McCain favored among 46 percent, Obama 44 percent.

But within the survey of the 14 states, NPR also reports finding some cultural divides: Among Wal-Mart shoppers surveyed, McCain is the favorite of 58 percent, Obama 33 percent.

And to think that Obama's wife, Michelle, once sat on the board of TreeHouse Foods, a vendor that supplies Wal-Mart. She resigned as a director in May 2007, severing a link that could become a problem for her husband's campaign. (TreeHouse supplies pickles and other foods to Wal-Mart, a frequent target of union leaders who say the company treats workers unfairly. Michelle Obama cited increased demands on her time.)

It sounds like it's safe for both latte-sipping candidates to show up at a Starbucks, however. Starbucks-voters statistically split down the middle..

by Mark Silva

Fears of an economic slide have given Democrat Barack Obama a lift, with polls showing that voters trust Obama more than Republican rival John McCain to handle the economic crisis at hand.

The newest gauge of this impact of a struggling economy on a close presidential contest is the survey reported today by ABC News and the Washington Post.

It portrays Obama as gaining a 9-percentage-point advantage over McCain among likely voters surveyed nationally - the first time a pre-election poll by this consortium has found a Democrat drawing more than 50 percent of those surveyed. The margin: Obama 52 percent, McCain 43 percent.

"It is all about the economy," ABC's chief Washington correspondent, George Stephanopoulos, reported on ABC's Good Morning America. "People are angry and shocked and worried about the economy and that is all helping Barack Obama right now."

Stephanopoulos added a certain historical note here as well: "You have to go back to 1948 for the last time when a candidate having this kind of a lead in late September lost.

Neither of the last two Democratic nominees, former Vice President Al Gore in 2000 or Sen. John Kerry, (D-Mass.) in 2004, recorded support above 50 percent in pre-election ABC News/Washington Post polls. The last ABC/Post poll, two weeks ago, found a virtual tie, with McCain drawing 49 percent and Obama 47 percent.

"Seizing the reins of economic discontent,'' ABC News reports, "Obama has squashed McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he can better address the nation's economic trouble and is more in tune with the economic troubles voters now face.

Obama has a 14-point edge over McCain on the question of his ability to cope with the economy. A new Pew Research Center poll released this week found a similar edge for Obama over McCain in voter confidence on handling the economy.

The survey was run Friday through Monday, inclduing 1,082 adults and 916 registered voters. The margin of error is a possible plus or minus four percentage points for the sample of 780 likely voters on which the results are based..

by Frank James

In the span of 24 hours, we have two major polls that give us opposite readings on whether Americans support the Bush Administration's proposed $700 billion bailout of Wall Street.

A Los Angeles/Times Bloomberg poll found 55 percent of those surveyed opposing the bailout while 31 percent supported it. The Los Angeles Times has a report on that poll.

That result exactly contradicted the conclusion of a Pew Reseearch Center poll we reported on last night which found 57 percent of those surveyed supporting the bailout plan while 30 percent were against it.

Looks like we need another poll that can serve as the tiebreaker on that issue.

Both polls pointed in the same direction in terms of which presidential candidate was viewed as being better able to navigate through the financial crisis. Sen. Barack Obama was favored in both polls as the candidate who would be better for the economy, with 45 percent of those in the LA Times/Bloomberg Poll choosing him compared with 33 percent.

In the Pew Poll, it was 47 percent for Obama versus 35 percent for McCain.

by Mark Silva

By a margin of nearly two-to-one, Americans surveyed say the federal government is doing the right thing in intervening in the financial market credit crunch, and by a double-digit margin most voters say that Democrat Barack Obama is better-suited than Republican John McCain to deal with the crisis at hand.

In the first full look at the public's reaction to the bailout that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unveiled over the weekend, 57 percent of those surveyed by the Pew Research Center in Washington on Friday through Monday said the government was doing the right thing -- and just 30 percent called the intervention the wrong thing.

"Support for the administration's plan to bailout many of the nation's troubled financial institutions is largely bipartisan,'' Pew President Andrew Kohut reports.

The Sept. 19-22 survey of 1,003 adults also found that more voters view Obama as the presdential candidate best able to address the financial crisis :47 percent favoring Obama on that count, 35 percent McCain. Among independent voters, it's Obama 44, McCain 30 on that question.

For more on public attitudes toward the bailout and Obama and McCain, see the Pew Center poll.

by Mark Silva

People appear to have at least a couple of worries about the economic crisis unfolding:

One, that it will get worse if the government does not take action to address the problems, and two, the people who caused the problem stand to benefit from that government action.

In the poll run by CNN and Opinion Research - the one finding that most people believe the government should step in - people were asked if they worry about the "possibility that the economy will get worse if the federal government does not take action. A large majority - 79 percent - said they are worried: 40 percent very worried and 49 percent somewhat worried.

Asked if they worry about "the possibility that the people who caused these problems in the first place will benefit if the federal government takes action to address these problems,'' the people surveyed Friday through Sunday also overwhelmingly said yes: 36 percent very worried, 41 percent somewhat worried.

Among the 1,020 people surveyed, 81 percent also said they would rate economic conditions in the country today as poor - 47 percent very poor.

Here's a note of optimism, however, asked to look ahead a year from now and say what condition they expect the country's economy to be in, 64 percent said somewhat or very good -- though just 6 percent said very good. Sounds like they expect action.

by Mark Silva

As pollsters start attempting to gauge public sentiment about the mortgage debt bailout that the Bush administration is proposing, the $700-billion question is the big one.

A new survey from CNN and Opinion Research doesn't quite get there, but it does ask if the federal government "should step in and try to address'' the problems facing financial institutions or "should the federal government stay out and let the financial markets and the economy try to recover on their own?''

And 62 percent in the survey taken Friday through Sunday said the government should step in - while 37 percent said stay out. Most surveyed say they expect that any action taken by Congress will help the economy, yet nearly two-thirds predict that American taxpayers will be treated "unfairly'' in the bargain. (Treasury had not rolled out its $700-billion price tag until after this survey was in the field.)

Asked if the nation's economy is "fundamentally sound,'' only 32 percent said it is - two thirds said no.

"Would you say the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market make you feel scared, or do you feel concerned, but not scared, or are you not concerned by those events?''

Two thirds say they are concerned but not scared - just 22 percent scared.

Asked who is more responsible for the financial problems, Republicans or Democrats, 47 percent blamed the Republicans, 24 percent the Democrats and 20 percent both equally.

"As you may know, the federal government has already provided millions of dollars in assistance to several large financial institutions that were likely to collapse without the government's action. Do you favor or oppose that action?'' people were asked in the survey of 1,020 people, with a possible margin of error of 3 percent.

Fifty-five percent said they favor it and 44 percent oppose it.

And here's a kicker: "Congress and the Bush administration are talking about taking additional steps to address the country's financial problems. Just your best guess -- if Congress and the Bush agree on some new programs, do you think those programs would treat U.S. taxpayers fairly or unfairly?

Nearly two thirds - 65 percent - said unfairly. And just 34 percent said fairly.

Yet 55 percent said they believe those new problems will help the economy.

by Mark Silva

From a national perspective, the presidential contest today is where it was in June, Gallup's Frank Newport confidently suggests.

By the numbers, that would appear to be true: The small but "statistically significant'' advantage that Democrat Barack Obama holds over Republican John McCain in the new results of the Gallup Poll's daily tracking surveys released today looks like the lead that Obama held in June and July. It's Obama 48, McCain 44. Margin of error: 2.

The "convention bounces'' for both have come and gone. "There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied,'' writes Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. "But beginning this week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.''

But is the contest really the same?

McCain is campaigning now with a popular running mate, a charismatic candidate whose mere eye-wear has sparked a fashion wave, an Alaskan governor whose lack of Washington experience seems to have only added a fresh gust of Western wind to the ticket of the senior senator from Arizona, an old Washington hand who likes to think that he is "the original maverick.''

McCain is campaigning without many questions about that war which he dared to fight regardless of its impact on his electoral chances -- "rather lose an election,'' he had said, "than lose a war.'' That no longer appears to be an either-or consideration, with an economic upheaval that has opened like a sink hole in the weeks before Election Day.

Obama is struggling to regain that claim to "change'' with which he launched his campaign nearly two years ago. His running mate, Joe Biden, with decades in Congress, hasn't done much to augment that message -- yet has provided voters with the assurance of a seasoned hand on the ticket, the anti-Palin.

by Mark Silva

Seeing as how popular Karl Rove's tracking of the state polls was here the other day -- the survey that showed Republican John McCain eroding Democrat Barack Obama's electoral-vote edge -- the new one today showing McCain eliminating Obama's advantage ought to be of real interest.

McCain now holds a slim polling advantage, counting the states by electoral votes, for the first time since early June, Rove's maps show: 227 for McCain, 226 Obama, with another 85 up for grabs in states that remain a "toss-up.''

This counts Florida (27 electoral votes) in McCain's column, with McCain drawing closer in both Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Washington (11). McCain also has expanded his lead in several red states, including North Carolina (15).

It'll take an election to sort all this out, of course. But 50 days out, polls are all the pundits have.

by Laura Olson

Democrats in Congress may be seeing the impact of the Republican re-excitement.

A USA Today/Gallup survey released Friday shows only a 3 percent lead, 48 percent to 45 percent, among registered voters for Democratic candidates when asking about a generic ballot. Democrats have held a sizable lead in this area since winning back Congress in 2006.

Among likely voters, Republicans now hold a 5 percent lead over Democratic candidates, 50 percent to 45 percent.

The survey, conducted Sept. 5-7, asked voters for their preference between the Democratic candidate and the Republican in their congressional district, without naming specific names.

According to the poll, 92 percent of Democratic voters support the Democratic candidate in their district, and 94 percent of Republicans support the Republican contender. Among independents, 44 percent would choose the Democratic candidate and 40 percent back the Republican.

Congressional Democrats have enjoyed an election outlook predicting gains in both houses, further cementing their majorities. But Gallup researchers pointed several factors that may be boosting Republican candidates, such as Sen. John McCain's improved standing against Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential race, and an increase in GOP party identification among voters.

by Mark Silva

In the great, daily-roving national sweep of registered voters, the race between John McCain and Barack Obama has settled into a statistical tie again, following the "bounces'' that each got from their nominating conventions.

Democrat Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, still holds an apparent electoral-vote advantage over Republican McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, in a state-by-state survey of polls - though that edge has eroded in the latest polling, with the numbers of "toss-up'' states growing.

In the national photograph of the race, the Gallup Poll's daily tracking survey today reports a statistical tie: McCain 47, Obama 45, in a poll with a possible 2 percent margin of error. That's pretty much where the candidates for president were before the conventions - actually dead-even at the start.

The newest results come from surveys taken Wednesday through Friday. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, reports that they show the contest "settling back into the close race that it was before the two weeks that marked both candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates and the two conventions.''

In the weekend before the Democratic convention, Newport notes, the race was tied 45 to 45 in the Gallup tracks. Now, Newport suggests, the "convention dust" is settling.

"The race underwent predictable 'bounces' -- first for Obama, who with a one percentage point gain had moved out to an eight-point lead, and then for McCain, who moved out to a five-point lead,'' Newport notes of his convention tracks. "Now, it appears that the structure of the race -- after all the sturm und drang of the convention period -- ends up not all that different than when the conventions began.''

by Mark Silva

President Bush may say he pays no attention to polls, but Karl Rove, whose degree comes from the Electoral College, sure does.

And the polls Rove is watching show that Democrat Barack Obama's apparent advantage in the electoral vote contest -- the one that counts -- has slipped in the past week. That post-convention bounce of the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket is not only a phenomenon of national polling.

Obama's electoral vote count in the states where he holds a comfortable edge has slipped to 226 in this survey, down 34 in a week. Republican John McCain's has climbed to 200, up 6 in a week. And, in a contest that requires 270 votes to win, the votes residing in states considered a "toss-up" have risen to 112, up 28 in a week.

And Rove's map still shows Florida as a "toss-up'' -- which some are starting to question with the most recent polls there showing solid gains fro McCain recently.

The St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith writes:"Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.''

"Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

"Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.

"But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.''

Now you know why the temperature of the campaign TV ads is rising. Compare Rove's map of the Obama-McCain match above with the one from a week ago here:

by Frank James

As one might expect, the passage of time since 9/11 as well as the lack of terrorist attacks has blunted American fears about terrorist attacks.

Gallup provides us some data:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- While a new bipartisan report concludes that the United States remains "dangerously vulnerable" to terrorist attacks, most Americans do not fear being directly affected. Only 38% are very or somewhat worried that they or a family member will become a victim of terrorism. This is down from 47% last July, and from a high of 59% in October 2001, but is still short of a post-9/11 low of 28% in January 2004.

by Mark Silva

It may be just as well for John McCain that Sarah Palin is going away to Alaska for a few days, because all of those chants of "Sarah, Sarah, Sarah'' at the joint appearances of the Republican Party's presidential ticket are starting to overshadow the top of the ticket.

But he may want her back soon.

A survey of voters has found, with an open-ended question, that 50 perecent found Palin's acceptance speech the highlight of the Republican National Convention - while just 17 percent offered up McCain's speech as the convention highlight. And people rated it far higher than McCain's

Overall, Palin has been good for McCain:

A Sept. 5-8 survey run by the Pew Research Center in its weekly news index survey found that 35 percent said their opinion of McCain had become more favorable in recent days, while 24 percent said their opinion of the Republican nominee had become less so.

"Palin appears to have helped boost McCain's image, and her convention speech drew a highly favorable response,'' Pew reports, noting still that "only a narrow majority (52 percent) view Palin as qualified to serve as president should she need to step in and 39 percent see her as unqualified.

by Mark Silva

Is it women, or independents?

Gallup says it's independent voters who are behind John McCain's convention "bounce," and that, for the first time in Gallup's daily tracking, a majority of independent voters is leaning toward one candidate: The Republican.

The six-point bounce that McCain gained in Gallup's daily tracking sureys - with the Republican leading Democratic rival Barack Obama by 49-44 percentage points in the first full round of surveys completed after the end of McCain's convention - is "largely explained'' by independents shifting to McCain "in fairly big numbers,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports. Pre-convention, they lined up 40 percent for McCain. Post-convention: 52 percent.

ABC News reports a 20-point shift in white woman toward McCain -- perhaps part of that Sarah "Palinomenon.'' Gallup is looking more closely at independents.

This is critical ground in this contest, because McCain's appeal always has centered on his attraction to voters who hold no allegiance to any political party. And Obama has based his appeal on a call for "change'' from the status quo, another lure for the independent, swing-voter. If this is where their contest will be fought, the polling would suggest that McCain gained some serious ground with his convention - and his running mate-pick.

"The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates,'' Saad notes. "Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48 percent of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46 percent, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.''

by Mark Silva and updated.

Follow the bouncing polls.

Some say bounce, some say no bounce.

Both Barack Obama and John McCain got bounces out of their presidential nominating conventions, according to the results of the Gallup Poll's daily track.

But neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee got any bounce out of the conventions in Denver and St. Paul, according to the results of a CNN/ Opinion Research Corp. poll released today and results from the past few weeks.

The real contest, of course, is playing out state by state in the electoral vote-contest that Obama and McCain are waging in the "battleground states.'' But the national perception of these candidates has a bearing on everything from fundraising to organizing, as well as the perception that voters have in the competitive states of who's running well, and according to CNN the national perception is unmoved.

Asked about the Democratic ticket of Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, and Joe Biden, senior senator from Delaware, and the Republican ticket of McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, and Sarah Palin, first-term governor from Alaska:

48 percent of those surveyed Friday through Sunday, after the GOP's convention had closed in St. Paul, said McCain, and 48 percent said Obama. The survey of 1,022 voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

That is virtually the same reading that CNN and Opinion Research got from an Aug. 29-31 survey, after the Democratic convention: Obama 49 percent, McCain 48.

And it's the same reading as the pre-conventions survey run Aug. 23-24: 47-47.

No bounce at all.

McCain was claiming a 46 to 44 percent advantage over Obama in the newest CBS News poll, run three days following the parties' nominating conventions. This spread was within the poll's margin of error, yet represented a reversal and the first time that McCain had led Obama in CBS News general election polling.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll found Obama and McCain virtually tied after the conventions -- Obama 47, McCain 46 -- but this was a gain for McCain, who had trailed Obama by 43-49 in Post/ABC poll on Aug. 22.

Which takes us back to the battleground states.

Carry on, contenders.

by Mark Silva

The post-convention daily track of voter attitudes about Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama finds McCain claiming a marginal, and perhaps statistically insignificant but certainly politically motivating, advantage over Obama: McCain 48 percent, Obama 45 percent.

It could be bigger tomorrow.

The results include two full days of polling after the Republican National Convention, which has provided McCain with a boost rivaling the one that Obama gained with his own convention. In the Sept. 4-6 interviewing of voters, Gallup's Jeff Jones notes, "McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.''

Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing a candidate's support in the last survey taken entirely before a party's convention with the first survey completed entirely afterward - so the results of today's surveys included in a three-day average reported on Tuesday will be telling.

"McCain's 48 percent share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March,'' Jones adds. "He registered the same level of support in early May.

"This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points,'' Jones notes. " Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June. ''

The results of the three-day survey carry a possible 2 percentage point margin of error. See more on the McCain-Obama match at Gallup, and see the longer trendline here:

by Frank James

More bad news for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign on the polling front. The latest George Washington University-Battleground 2008 Poll done jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters shows that Sen. John McCain has managed to move independent voters to him to such a degree that he now leads Obama by 10 percent. Back in May, Obama led with independents by 14 percent.

Obviously, this is a huge swing. Republican pollster Brian Tringali and his Democratic counterpart Celinda Lake suggested, at a National Press Club event this morning, that some of it may be due to both Democratic and Republican candidates solidifying their respective bases, reducing the size of independent constituency in the electorate. (You can watch a recording the Tringali and Lake's event on C-Span's website.)

The Battleground 2008 poll has the race overall essentially tied with McCain at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent. Back in May, Obama had a three percentage point lead on McCain, basically tied at that point too.

Here is a piece of the analysis (read spin) by Republican pollsters Tringali and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group:

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain appears to have gained some momentum and, through negative advertising, driven down Sen. Barack Obama's appeal with voters to the point where the Arizona Republican now has a five-point lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll.

Here's the top of the Reuters press release:

UTICA, New York - As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month - in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

And here's the really troubling part for the polling results if you're Obama campaign:

The poll shows Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where Obama had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners.

by Mark Silva

One week from the opening of the Democratic National Convention, no amount of Paris Hilton or Charlton Heston have shaken Barack Obama's narrow advantage over Republican rival John McCain, and no amount of accusation that McCain, like President Bush, is "in the pocket'' of Big Oil has opened up a lead for Obama.

"The current position of the race is representative of the overall average positioning of the two candidates so far this summer,'' reports Gallup editor in chief Frank Newport, with results of a daily tracking poll today showing Obama favored among 46 percent of voters surveyed, McCain 43 percent.

McCain has challenged Obama's credentials for leadership with TV- and Web-ads likening him to the celebrity of a Hilton or the Messianic figure portrayed by Heston - indeed, McCain's ads have declared that Obama is, simply, "not ready to lead.''

And Obama has done his best to tie McCain to Bush, the continually unpopular incumbent, with the Democrat's ads equating the economic policies of the Republicans - mainly paying for a costly war and high gas prices - as pages from the same book.

But the needle of the daily track seems like more of a fluctuation in the margin of error than any indication of real movement in this historic race for the White House. The margin of error in this survey of 2,660 registered voters taken Aug. 15-17 is 2 percent.

"Although McCain moved closer to Obama in the last three reports of Gallup's tracking,'' Newport notes, "he was not able to sustain this tied position, and the bottom line is that the race appears to have once again returned to just about where it has been on average over the summer.''

This is the pre-running mate-bounce polling report, of course, though Gallup also has found that in races past the immediate gain that candidates got from their running mate announcements was short-lived. So each will get to name a mate in the three weeks ahead, both will get their nominating conventions and then, for these two candidates who haven't managed a sustained, statistically significant breakaway since June, it's:

See you in September.

by Mark Silva

Democrat Barack Obama's apparent advantage over Republican John McCain has narrowed to a three-point edge in a national poll that the Pew Research Center has conducted each month since Obama clinched his party's presidential nomination.

Obama held an 8-point lead over McCain in June, five points in July and now 3 points in August, according to the Pew surveys: Obama 46 percent, McCain 43 percent, a virtual tie, in the latest survey.

"With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared,'' Pew reports

The Republican senior senator from Arizona has solidified his support among whites, men, Republicans, white evangelical Christians and white voters who haven't finished college. Obama, for his part, has shown few gains but maintained an overwhelming advantage among black voters and leads McCain by 13 points among women and by 24 points among younger voters, under the age of 30.

McCain, who has challenged Obama with TV ads calling the Democrat "not ready to lead,'' appears to have gained some headway in securing his own image of leadership ability. McCain holds an advantage on the question of a candidate who is personally qualified and could handle a crisis and is willing to take a stand. Obama holds an edge asa candidate with new ideas who connects with voters.

In addition,partisan voters may be rallying more around McCain: While 72 percent of those who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in the party primaries now say they will support Obama, 88 percent of the Republicans who backed other candidates now are backing McCain.

The survey, conducted from July 31 through Aug. 10, includes 2,414 registered voters. It carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
.
The three-point margin between the two, within the statistical margin of error for each candidate's results, is narrower than the 47-42 point advantage that Obama held in July and his 48-40 point edge in June.

"Two factors appear to be at play in shifting voter sentiment,'' Pew reports. "First, McCain is garnering more support from his base - including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants - than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period.

"Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image,'' Pew notes. "An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.''

For more on the Obama-McCain virtual tie, see the Pew poll.

by Mark Silva

By the numbers, today is a marker of sorts, the eighth day of the eighth month of the eighth year of the millenium. Yet many miles to go before Election Day.

By the numbers, at least nationally, John McCain and Barack Obama are waging a delicate balancing act with voters, if the daily polls are any indication. Yet state by state, particularly in some critical election battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Obama is tipping the scales against McCain, polls there suggest.

So this may be a good time for Obama to go away for a week's rest, while McCain remains at work.

Or is it?

The only public appearance on Obama's schedule today is a "Welcome to Hawaii event'' with Barack Obama and Michelle Obama at Kehi Lagoon Beach Park in Honolulu. Can't help but wonder, however, if the week will bring some new entries in the Obama campaign swimsuit edition. A photo op is worth a million words.

The Democratic candidate for president will be down for vacation through next Saturday. He's taking his family, of course, and also his chief campaign spokesman, Robert Gibbs, and family. What a busman's holiday.

McCain, meanwhile, landed in Des Moines, Iowa, today for some more campaigning, and plans a press conference later today in Rogers, Arkansas.

In Obama's absence, McCain also is working at etching some themes into the voting public's consciousness - such as where he would put the country as president: "First.'' Suggesting that Obama would do what?

The other term of art that McCain embraces in his "Country First'' email to supporters today is "dead heat'' - the one portrayed in the national Gallup Poll daily tracking survey. It was Obama 46, McCain 43, in yesterday's track, and again today as well, a statistical tie.

"We are just under 90 days from Election Day and I'm sure you've seen the news reports that this race is now in a dead heat,'' McCain tells supporters today. "Our campaign continues to build momentum - thanks to your incredible support and hard work. ''

McCain is working hard, too. Tomorrow, he plans to address the convention of Disabled American Veterans in Las Vegas.

It's a good bet that McCain will be talking about Obama "forfeiting'' the war in Iraq.

Obama certainly forfeits a week of media exposure with his much-needed respite. And, judging from the Pew Research Center survey that found not only a certain "Obama fatigue'' among voters tired of hearing the name, but also an overall summer fatigue with the election campaign underway, that may not be a bad thing.

But at the end of the week, if the Gallup daily track still portrays a "dead heat,'' which of the two candidates will be better off for this week of vacation, on the one hand, and working hard at definitions, on the other? Someone who couldn't move the needle, hard as he worked? Or someone who held the needle, without really working?

by Katie Fretland

Women have a more pessimistic outlook of the country's economy than men, according to a new report by the National Women's Law Center.

More women worry about their current and future economic situation -- 59 percent of women say they are concerned about achieving economic and financial goals in the next five years, compared to 46 percent of men. Six out of 10 women said their personal situation is challenging or difficult and nine out of 10 said the country is experiencing challenging or difficult times, according to the report.

"Women today face enormous challenges," Marcia D. Greenberger, co-president of the National Women's Law Center, said in a statement. "They often struggle to achieve economic security and health care that meets their needs, and face difficulties securing access to equal education and employment opportunities."

The law center said pessimism can be attributed to declining income. Sixty percent of women overall said that their income is falling behind the cost of living. This percentage increases with lower income women (75 percent), women who have not completed college (68 percent) and black women (70 percent).

The organization offers the following analysis:

by Mark Silva

The short-lived bounce of Barack Obama's European tour is gone, and the presidential contest between Obama and John McCain has settled back down to a dead-heat, in the measure of the daily tracking surveys of the Gallup Poll.

The three-day average of surveys run Wednesday through Friday found 44 percent of those surveyed supporting Obama, the Democratic junior senator from Illinois, and 44 percent supporting McCain, the Republican senior senator from Arizona.

The Gallup track, which has portrayed a virtual tie between the two at many junctures since March, had found a 9-point advantage for Obama in the days following all of the attention that he received with his march across Western Europe.

"But that bounce disappeared almost as quickly as it emerged,'' Gallup's Jeff Jones reports.

"More broadly, Obama has enjoyed an average 3-point advantage since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June,'' Jones notes. But "for the moment, McCain has erased that small advantage.'' Take a look at the longer-range tracking of McCain and Obama here.)

McCain also aired a series of attacks against Obama after that trip - with television ads potaaying Obama as an empty "celebrity'' and accusing Obama of playing basketball instead of visiting wounded American soldiers (Obama has called the McCain campaigns comparison of him with Britney Spears and Paris Hilton a "cynical'' distraction from the real issues of the contest, and Obama did visit troops in Kuwait, where he also played basketball, but refrained from visiting a military hospital in Germany when the military objected to the potential for politicizing it - McCain, for his part, maintained that if the Pentagon had attempted to stop him from visiting the soldiers, there would have been "a seismic event.'')

So the two may have accomplished at least this: Confirming the old Newtonian science of political dynamics --- for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, for every European tour, perhaps, a bounce in the polls, for every run of attack ads, for sure, a slide in the polls. In the weeks ahead, McCain and Obama will find yet more opportunity to influence their own standing: The running- mate picks.

by Mark Silva

With further evidence here that it's the economy, stupid, that could play a deciding role in the presidential contest, the Pew Research Center has collected some unsettling findings about the mood of the American public:

 38 percent of those surveyed say affording the cost of food is becoming a problem.
 55 percent say real estate values have slipped.
 73 percent say good jobs are scarce locally.
 87 percent say who is elected president matters to the economy.

And while overall public opinion toward Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama appears to be somewhat evenly divided in the July 23-27 survey, more view Obama as capable of doing something about the economy.

"The public continues to be extremely downbeat about the national economy,'' the Pew Center reports, with just 10 percent calling the economy in good shape and 72 percent saying the economy is either in a recession (54 percent) or depression (18).

That percentage of people calling food difficult to afford has grown from 27 percent to 38 percent since February. And the share of people citing rising prices as the most important economic problem facing the nation has nearly doubled since February - up from 24 percent then to 45 percent in the latest July survey.

"While rising costs are clearly the top economic problem in the public's view, it is far from their only concern,'' Pew notes, with more than seven in ten calling good jobs hard to find, compared with 55 percent a little over a year ago.

"Multiple economic concerns are taking a toll on public optimism,'' Pew adds. "About half of Americans (51 percent) expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year, down from 55 percent in March and 60 percent in January. Yet despite the worsening economic perceptions, the public does not see the economy as beyond repair. Nor do they believe that the government is incapable of fixing the economy in an era of global economic interdependence.''

With 87 percent of those surveyed saying that, when it comes to the economy, it matters who is elected president, 47 percent say Obama can do a better job of improving the economy and 32 percent say McCain can. That's slightly narrower than the margin which favored Obama on this score in a June survey - 51 to 31 percent.

See the full results of the survey here: Economic Survey.pdf

by Mark Silva

It may have taken a virtual village of Germans to raise Barack Obama's profile in Europe, but all it's taking is a television commercial and a couple of snapshots of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton to put John McCain back in the news back in the US of A.

And McCain needs that news boost, according to the latest findings of the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which reports that Obama's weeklong tour of the Middle East and Europe "dominated campaign coverage last week and became one of the biggest campaign events thus far, with 62 percent of the public saying they heard a lot about it.''

That's not all people had to say.

A sizable share of those surveyed - 42 percent - tell pollsters that news coverage of the presidential election has favored Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House. Among Republicans, reports Andy Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, 71 percent say press coverage has been biased toward Obama. Even among Democrats surveyed, 28 percent say so, too. Among independents, 42 percent see a bias.

"Despite all the media attention and the high level of public awareness, only 15 percent say they have learned a great deal about Obama's approach to foreign policy from hearing or reading about his overseas trip,'' Kohut notes. "A third say they learned some about his foreign policy views, but more than half (5 percent) say they didn't learn much or learned nothing at all.

"As has been the case throughout the general election campaign, coverage of Obama outweighed that of Republican John McCain last week by a significant margin,'' Kohut notes: 81 percent of the campaign stories analyzed by the Project for Excellence in Journalism prominently featured the Illinois senator, while 53 percent featured McCain. The media's sustained focus on the Obama campaign has raised questions about press bias.''

These are the principal findings of the project's "Weekly News Interest Index.'' For further findings about coverage of Obama and McCain see the survey here.

by Mark Silva

The European bounce for Barack Obama has lifted the Democratic candidate for president to the greatest advantage he has held over Republican rival John McCain, according to the results today of the newest Gallup daily tracking poll.

It's Obama 49 percent, McCain 40 percent, in the average of three days of Gallup surveys run through Saturday. The nine point edge is the biggest that Gallup has found since it started tracking opinion about Obama versus McCain in March. It follows a tour that carried Obama from Afghanistan and Iraq to Israel, Germany, France and Great Britain, which drew widespread media coverage of the candidate.

"The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horse race in March,'' Gallup's Frank Newport notes.

"A key question remains as to whether this 'bounce' is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist,'' adds Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, in a report today on the poll. "The answer... will become evident in the next several days.''

The latest numbers on Obama and McCain are the result of Gallup interviews with 2,692 registered voters conducted July 24-26, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The initial impact of Obama's trip was reported here Saturday, with Gallup daily tracking results that showed a seven-point edge for Obama, who had been statistically tied with McCain earlier in the week. It started a fairly lively discussion here in the Swamp, which invites your thoughts about the nine-pointer.

by Mark Silva

Berlin and Paris were good for Barack Obama.

Democrat Obama's apparent advantage over Republican John McCain in national polling has "stretched'' to seven percentage points, according to the latest results of the Gallup daily tracking poll - a survey taken at the height of Obama's widely watched march across Europe, days in which he polled strongly against McCain.

The junior senator from Illinois draws the support of 48 percent of those surveyed in the latest Gallup track, a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted Wednesday through Friday, as Obama was touring Berlin and Paris (Obama is pictured here with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in an AP photo). McCain's 41 percent-support in the survey matches his low for the month in the daily Gallup track.

An early impact of the Democratic presidential candidates' foreign trip might be registered in these numbers, as the Gallup track had potrayed Obama and McCain in a virtual tie earlier in the week - with two percentage points between them.

"But that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama's foreign tour,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad notes today.

"Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Germany may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor,'' Saad notes.

"Obama's current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously,'' she adds. "He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

"While Obama may have thus far received a modest bounce from the massive publicity surrounding this week's trip,'' Saad concludes, "his ability to sustain or build on that -- as opposed to having it dissipate along with news coverage of the trip -- could hinge on how the major U.S. media outlets and conservative vs. liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in the coming days.''

The latest results are based on a survey of 2,710 registered voters conducted by the Gallup Poll on July 23-25, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

by Mark Silva

Democrat Barack Obama's apparent advantage over Republican John McCain has held steady in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released today.

The relatively modest advantage for the junior senator from Illinois - who drew the support of 47 percent of those surveyed in this poll, compared with 41 percent for the senior senator from Arizona - is unchanged from a month ago, NBC News reports.

"We're starting to see a hardening of his support,'' NBC Political Director Chuck Todd said this morning on MSNBC.

The survey, conducted July 18-22, also found some "good news'' for both candidates, as Todd reports. More voters surveyed say McCain represents their values. While more surveyed say that Obama's positions are "in the mainstream.''

The survey largely was conducted before Obama departed for a tour of Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Europe which has drawn considerable media coverage, which could also have a short-term impact on public opinion.

by Katie Fretland

Sen. Barack Obama has made no significant traction in gaining the support of white evangelical voters, while McCain's advantage is lower than Bush's lead at a similiar point in 2004, according to the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

About six-in-ten white evangelicals favor Sen. John McCain for president, compared to 25 percent for opponent Sen. Barack Obama, giving McCain a 36-point advantage. In 2004, Bush had a 43 point lead over his Democratic rival.

The 25-percent support for Obama is slightly lower than number of white evangelicals who supported Democratic candidates in June 2004 at 26 percent and June 2000 at 28 percent.

This group of voters also remains more undecided at this point in the election than in last two elections. About 12 percent say they do not know who they would vote for today.

Our friends at Top of the Ticket have more on the candidates and evangelical voters.

by Katie Fretland

If you had three choices regarding the laws governing same-sex marriage, what would you choose?

1.Same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry
2.Same-sex couples should be allowed legally to form civil unions but not marry
3.Same-sex couples should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships

The pollsters at Quinnipiac University posed that question to 1,783 Americans across the country, and found that 32 supported same-sex marriage, 33 percent support civil unions and 29 percent said no legal recognition should exist for same-sex couples. Overall, voters oppose same-sex marriage by 55 to 36 percent, but the majority does not want the government to ban it, according to the poll.

Democrats and independents showed more support for same-sex marriage than Republicans. Forty-seven percent of Democrats, 43 percent of independents and 14 percent of Republicans support same-sex marriage, according to the poll.

Men showed more opposition to same-sex marriage at 61 percent, compared to women at 51 percent.

Despite opposition to same-sex marriage, 56 percent of voters oppose amending the Constitution to ban same-sex marriage. Sixty-four percent of Democrats oppose a ban, as well as 61 percent of independents. Fifty-six percent of Republicans favor the ban.
At the state level, 49 percent of voters said states should not attempt to ban same-sex marriage, compared to 45 percent who support a state-level ban.

"American voters oppose same-sex marriage and they don't want to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states, but by a narrow margin, they don't want their states to ban it," Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "And they don't want to amend the Constitution on this issue. Given a range of choices, they divide into thirds - for gay marriage, for civil unions, for a complete ban."

by Jesse Hamilton

The Senate duo that brought you the foreclosure prevention bill -- Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Richard Shelby, the ranking Republican on Dodd's banking committee -- has cranked out another bipartisan bill. This one, an expansion of sanctions against Iran, is in answer to Iranian bad behavior.

Says Dodd: "Iran's missile tests last week underscore its serious threat to our allies and interests in the region. This bipartisan bill strengthens economic sanctions against Iran, and authorizes divestment from companies that do business with Iran's key oil sector to increase pressure on its government to meet the demands of the international community. It also helps to prevent the illegal diversion of sensitive U.S. technologies to Iran."

All of that from the banking committee. [They must get sick of the mortgage market sometimes.]

Dodd, who is also a senior member of the foreign affairs committee, and Shelby intend to hash out the final version in the banking committee on Thursday.

To read a summary of the bill, visit On Background, the Hartford Courant's national politics blog.

by Frank James

Many national polls suggest that the presidential election is going to be close if nothing changes to shift the race's dynamics significantly in one direction or another.

Here's another indicator of how close the election could be. Voters appear evenly split on whether or not there should be a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, according to a Washington Post and ABC News poll.

According to the poll, 50 percent of the respondents favored a timetable while 49 percent didn't. Here was another close one: 47 percent of those surveyed said they trusted Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican nominee, on Iraq while 45 percent said they trusted Obama.

But when asked whether McCain would make a good commander-in-chief, 72 percent said yes while 25 percent said no.

By comparison, respondents were evenly split at 48 percent on the question of whether Obama would make a good leader of the U.S. military.

However, many analysts believe the election will turn not on Iraq but on the economy. If that holds, then Obama could have the advantage since polling shows him leading McCain on economic issues.

But what's really interesting about this Iraq poll is that it seems to indicate that McCain's position on Iraq isn't as unpopular with voters as it's frequently portrayed.

by Mark Silva

Remember that Newsweek magazine poll a few weeks back that portrayed a big advantage for Barack Obama in his contest with John McCain for the White House?

Forget it.

The newest Newsweek poll shows pretty much what the daily tracking poll of the Gallup organization has been recording for some time now: A virtual tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates for president among voters surveyed nationally. Newsweek says the virtual tie portrayed in its latest poll, as compared with the 15-point lead that Obama enjoyed in a poll reported on June 20, is "hard to explain.''

A lot of people probably have their own explanations.

Now, one of the Swamp's most faithful readers and persistent critics wondered in these e-pages if the Swamp, which reported a big double-digit lead for Obama in the Newsweek poll past, would be reporting the narrowing of the race in the newest Newsweek poll, and the answer is, of course we would. And we are. (Though we are not quite sure what to make of this business about Obama's "glow," which Newsweek illustrates with the AP photo shown here.)

The Swamp also asked, way back in the moment when Hillary Clinton had stepped aside from the Democratic contest and suddenly Obama showed a big lead over his Republican rival, if that was perhaps an outlier among the various polls.

Maybe it was, maybe not. Whatever, this is the latest:

"A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading,'' Newsweek reports. "In the latest Newsweek Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent.

"The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's Newsweek Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

"Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate,'' Newsweek notes. "Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June...

"More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics.

"This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's Newsweek Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.''

For more, see Newsweek's report on the Obama-McCain contest:

by Frank James

Voters, especially Democrats, are more interested in the coming presidential election than they've been in two decades, a trend that could significantly boost turnout and give Sen. Barack Obama a big advantage over Sen. John McCain, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Another finding from the Pew poll that could augur well for Obama is that voter engagement was especially high among younger voters under 50, exactly that voter group Obama is counting on to turn out in large numbers for him.

The Obama campaign is hoping for historic levels of turnout amoung voters on the young end of the age scale in particular, voters who in past elections have typically not shown up at the polls the way older voters have. The poll suggests that such voters are psyched for Obama. The question, of course, is whether they'll stay excited about Obama all the way to the election booth.

Here's yet another interesting result: despite the good news for Obama, there was bad news for him too. Democrats weren't as unified behind him as Republicans were behind McCain. But what Obama lacked in party unity he made up for in enthusiam, an area that was a McCain weakness.

And here's why both candidates are taking such pains currently to move towards the center of the political spectrum: Pew's results suggest there exists a substantial pool of undecided swing voters out there yet to be won over.

Here's a summary from Pew:

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall - perhaps much higher than in previous elections - as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.

by Mark Silva

Never mind soccer moms, security moms and the bitter working class.

This is a question for pet owners.

And John McCain is Best in Show.

The pet-owning public may have caught on to the fact that McCain, like George Washington and George W. Bush, shares his home with a number of pets - more than a dozen, in McCain's case. Democrat Barack Obama, by contrast, is petless.

Among pet-owners, McCain has clawed his way to a marginal advantage; 42 percent supporting the Republican, 37 percent the Democrat, according to the results of an AP-Yahoo News poll (remember, it was Jonathan Swift who brought us the Yahoos.)

Among the petless, the poll found, Obama is favored by a rather solid margin of 48 to 34 percent.

Obama reportedly has promised his two daughters a dog once this campaign is over. If this poll is any indication of anything, the junior senator from Illinois may want to purchase that puppy before November.

by Frank James

A new Zogby poll gives Sen. Barack Obama a six percentage point lead over Sen. John McCain in its national online poll.

UTICA, New York - As the race for President passes the Independence Day holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 44% to 38% lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest, but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.

The extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters also shows Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6% support, eating into McCain's needed conservative base of support.

The online poll also gave the senator from Illinois a wide electoral college margin in those states whose results were beyond the margin of error (MoE). Obama led in states adding up to 273 electoral votes versus 158 EVs for McCain. A candidate needs 270 to win.

In 11 states totaling 107 EVs the MoE was too narrow for the state to be awarded to either candidate. There are 538 EVs all told.

Obama also beat McCain by slightly more than six points on favorability, Zogby said.

The bottom line? This poll, like those done by Gallup and others are pointing towards a very close race. But it's still only early July. We haven't had the nominating conventions or presidential debates or all the 527 TV ads yet. Then there's always the unexpected.

by Mark Silva

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama claims a significant advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain at the start of their campaign for the White House, according to the results of a new poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News.

In a two-way matchup, the poll has found Obama favored among 49 percent of those surveyed, McCain 37 percent. This is almost as wide an advantage as Obama held (15 points) in a Newsweek poll published over the weekend - both surveys portraying Obama far better positioned in his bid for the White House than other surveys have shown in recent days. The poll was run over the weekend.

In a four-way ballot that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, Obama holds a 48-33 percentage-point advantage over McCain in the L.A. Times and Bloomberg survey - suggesting that it is McCain who stands to lose the most to third- and fourth-party alternatives who may appeal to an independent voter whom both Obama and McCain are courting in their campaigns for president.

The added margin for Obama in the broader matchup appears due less to Obama's strength and more to McCain's weakness, the L.A. Times reports.

The Arizona senator suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among conservatives who usually provide republican candidates with a reliable base, the Times adds. Fewer than 80 percent of self-described Republicans say they will vote for their party's candidate this year, with about 10 percent saying they plan to vote for someone else and about 10 percent undecided. Among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, almost half say they are "not enthusiastic" about the candidate.

By contrast, the Times reports, about 80 percent of Obama's voters say they are enthusiastic and almost half say they are "very enthusiastic.''

See the story at the Los Angeles Times.

by Mark Silva

It could be one of those earlier outliers.

Or it could be really bad news for John McCain.

But Newsweek magazine, reporting on the results of a survey run June 18-19, reports a 15-percentage point advantage for Barack Obama in the race for the White House.

"Barack finally has his bounce,'' Newsweek suggests of the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, who clinched the party's nomination within the past three weeks and has been looking for the bounce that might come with that.

The Illinois senator stands particularly strong among independents in this survey - favored by a margin of 48 to 36 percent over McCain, the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, among swing voters critical to the outcome of the vote on Nov. 4 Overall. Obama holds a 51 percentage point to 36-point advantage among all surveyed by Newsweek.

Now, this is a far greater advantage than other surveys have found since Obama clinched the nomination, with NBC News and the Wall Street Journal finding just a few-points edge for the Illinoisan.

The Gallup Poll in particular, which has been running a daily tracking poll and found Obama up seven points at one point since he silenced Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in the Democratic primaries, portrays a virtual tie in the race with McCain: 46 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain.

There are screens and there are samples to consider in these surveys, too.

Newsweek surveyed 1,010 adults, registered voters, and the reported results carry a possible 4 percentage point margin of error. Gallup's daily track is the result of a three-day rolling average, with 2,640 registered voters represented in its latest, June 17, 19 and 20 survey, reported today carrying a possible margin of error of just 2 percentage points.

By Paul West

A fierce debate over national security, perhaps the clearest and widest difference between John McCain and Barack Obama, was triggered this week by, of all people, five justices of the Supreme Court. How it plays out could determine who becomes the next president.

The court's decision in a Guantanamo Bay case, giving non-citizen prisoners the right to challenge their detention in federal court, "threw a stone in the pond" of the presidential contest, remarked Robert Gibbs, the Obama campaign's communications director.

A boulder might be more like it.

Ripples from the ruling launched a furious argument over Obama's national security views, as he was rolling out an ad campaign designed to cast him in a patriotic light. Coincidentally or not, McCain's support in Gallup's national tracking poll ticked upward and Obama's lead was down to two percentage points by Friday.

by Mark Silva

The second full week of the known contest for the White House ends with Barack Obama and John McCain in a virtual tie in national polling, according to the Gallup Poll's daily tracking.

Obama, the Democratic, junior senator from Illinois, had opened up a modest advantage over McCain, the Republican, senior senator from Arizona, after clinching the Democratic nomination early this month. Gallup isn't the only poll that showed "a modest bump'' for Obama, seven points up several days back. The pollsters working for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found a similar spread, and announcers voiced surprise it wasn't wider.

The latest Gallup snapshot: Obama 46 percent, McCain 44 percent.

In a survey with a 2 percentage point margin of error, that's a virtual tie.

Which will make for a long, hot summer.

At the same time, in a race that will be fought in several states rather than on a national canvas, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute has found Obama holding advantages over McCain in three critical states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Gallup results come from surveys June 16-17 and June 19.

"In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now,'' reports Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport, "with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.''

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

Once a year, the folks at Gallup step back and take a look at confidence in the great institutions of our society.

Guess who's at the bottom of the heap this year?

Congress. Right below HMOs.

Just 12 percent of Ameriicans surveyed voice confidence in Congress, "the lowest of the 16 institutions tested this year, and the worst rating Gallup has measured for any institution in the 35-year history of this question,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones adds.

"The poor economy and lack of effective government action on important issues such as gas prices, the Iraq War, and immigration help contribute to the erosion of trust and confidence in government institutions,'' Jones reports. These ratings indicate that people "may be hungry for change in Washington come the fall's elections.''

For more on the survey, read on below, and see Gallup's report.

by Frank James

House Democrats responded to President Bush's proposal to end the moratorium on drilling for oil offshore as well as in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by telling the president to drop dead, although they used a lot more words to make the same point.

The Democrats' main argument was that the oil industry is already in possession of 68 million acres of oil leases and that Big Oil should drill away on those before they come around asking the federal government for any more land or ocean floor.

At a Capitol Hill press conference following Bush's White House Rose Garden appearance, Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts ridiculed the president as essentially a mouthpiece for the oil and gas industry.

Then he urged Bush to support legislation that would charge oil companies fees that would increase the longer the companies hold onto the leases without producing oil on them:

And you know, today is an historic day. The president has decided to take out some of the oldest ideas which the oil and gas industry have had for destroying the most pristine wilderness and shoreline that we have in the United States. After eight years, President Bush and Dick Cheney have turned the GOP into the "Gas and Oil Party." That's the legacy that they are going to leave.

And what we're going to do, Mr. (Rahm) Emanuel, Mr. (Nick) Rahall, Mr. (Maurice) Hinchey and the Democratic Party is going to do, is we're going to give them a chance in the White House to put their money where their mouth is. We're going to give them a chance to impose fees on the oil industry on the public lands where they do not drill, where the American people have already given them an opportunity to drill. And we will increase the fees as the years go by, because otherwise, they will have wound up warehousing where the oil is in the United States that the American people, the Democratic Party, everyone wants them to drill, but they're refusing to drill, and at the same time, they're insisting that we should go to places that should be preserved forever.

by Frank James

Has the U.S. passed the point where it can enjoy the luxury of restricting drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf and even the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?

That is clearly the decision that's been made by Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, who now supports drilling off the U.S. coast, though he's still hanging on, for now, to his opposition to drilling in Alaska. Florida politicians and fellow Republicans like Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez have followed suit.

President Bush has long supported drilling in Alaska but is now calling for lifting the federal ban on off-shore drilling.

Democrats, at least to this point, are showing no such change of heart. Indeed, it will be harder for Democrats to make a similar shift because the party has an environmental constituency that would make such a move painful for any Democratic politician who dares suggest that such drilling bans be lifted.

Many Democrats and environmentalists argue the nation can't "drill it's way out of the problem," that any effort to increase the domestic production of oil just continues the nation's addition to that energy source by postponing the needed transition to alternative and renewable fuel sources and increased conservation.

by Mark Silva

Here is a notable early read from some important states:

Democrat Barack Obama holds an apparent advantage over Republican John McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to the results of a new Quinnipiac University "swing state'' survey.

These are all states in which Hillary Clinton prevailed over Obama in the party primaries - though Florida's disputed primary in January was uncontested. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, in particular, the primary contest was portrayed as a question of who might be able to carry working class voters in a general election matchup with McCain.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama,'' suggests Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Inttitute.

The results from Quinnipiac's sizable surveys of voters in these three states critical to either presidential candidate in November:

Florida: Obama 47 percent, McCain 43 percent.

Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40

Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42.

Obama draws his advantage "with strong support from women, blacks and younger voters,'' Quinnipiac report - noting that this also marks the first time that Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, has led McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in matchups in these states.

"No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College,'' the pollsters note.

These were sizable surveys run between June 9-16: Polls of 1,453 Florida likely voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent; 1,396 Ohio likely voters with a margin of 2.6 percent; 1,511 Pennsylvania likely voters with a 2.5 percent margin.

For mnre on the surveys, read on below, and see the poll here.

by Mark Silva

Numbers to remember, from our friends at Top of the Ticket who have a new poll of Latino voters which is of particular interest to Sen. Barack Obama:

76 percent: Jimmy Carter's share of the Latino vote in 1976.

72 percent: Bill Clinton's share at reelection in 1996.

67 percent: Al Gore's share in winning the popular vote in 2000.

56 percent: John Kerry's share in his loss to George W. Bush in '04.

Republicans like the way those numbers have trended, with Bush - a Texas-schooled politician who told Latinos he wanted to "look you in the ojos'' - raising hopes within his party with a 43 percent share in '04.

But a new poll of Latino voters in 21 states run by Pacific Market Research and political scientists at the University of Washington has found Obama's potential level of support approaching what predecessors in his party, prior to 2004, have been able to attract. Obama was the favorite among 60 percent surveyed, McCain 23 percent, with 16 percent undecided. The poll has a 3.5 percentage-point margn of error.

See the story in Top of the Ticket, the L.A. Times political blog.

by Frank James

The percentage of Americans using the Internet to get news and information about the presidential campaign more than doubled in spring 2008 from spring 2004, according to a new survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

There aren't a lot of surprises in the survey. For instance, it found that younger voters used the Internet much more than older ones. And most of those voters who were most-active online supported Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton, which tracks with Obama's great success in fundraising and organizing online.

Meanwhile, supporters of Obama, the all-but-official Democratic presidential nominee, have a greater online presence than those of Sen. John McCain, his Republican counterpart.

Here's a snippet from Pew's press release:

WASHINGTON, DC - Fully 46% of all Americans have used the internet, email or cell phone text messaging to get news about the campaign, share their views and mobilize others.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama may be virtually tied with Sen. John McCain in Gallup's national tracking poll which seeks to gauge which candidate voters support.

But when Gallup asked voters who they believe will win the White House in November, the Democratic senator from Illinois has a clear advantage over his Republican Senate colleague from Arizona.

As Gallup reports:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Not only has Barack Obama recently opened a small lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, but he leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November.

by Katie Fretland

A new study shows Republicans have grown more critical of the state of American morality, Gallup reports.

In a May poll, 51 percent reported that present moral conditions are "poor." This shows an increase of 15 percent since 2006. The increase in criticism was not seen among Democrats or independents, according to Gallup's Lydia Saad.

From 2006 to 2007, the percentage reporting a "poor" opinion of the state of moral values increased from 36 percent to 51 percent, which is the level it remained at until the most recent study.

Saad offers this analysis:

"Americans are reliably negative when it comes to rating moral values in the country. Since 2002, a majority of Americans have consistently said the state of moral values is less than good and getting worse.

"Apart from this general pattern, Republicans' disaffection with the nation's moral climate (but not Democrats' or independents') has been elevated over the past two years, A number of "values" issues have been in the news in recent years, including gay marriage, pop-star misbehavior, and reports of high-profile elected officials involved in sex-related scandals, but it is unclear that any of these are responsible for the pattern in the data.

by Mark Silva

Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, the Gallup Poll's daily tracking has found a bump for Obama in national polling. Gallup called it "a modest bump.''

Now NBC News and the Wall Street Journal have waded into the contest and come out of the polling waters with essentially the ame finding: Obama supported among 47 percent of those surveyed, Republican John McCain the favorite of 41 percent. The latest three-day average of the Gallup daily track had it at Obama 48, McCain 42, with new numbers coming today.

But NBC's Andrea Mitchell sees this as something other than a modest bump for Obama, at a time of great appetite for change in America.

"The surprise is, it should be Obama's to lose,'' she said today in analyzing the results on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "It's the first matchup of Barack Obama and John McCainn since the primaries are over,'' she said of the poll, and McCain is running with "a ball and chain'' around him - President Bush, carrying the lowest approval ratings of his eight years.

"It's a very tight race,'' Mitchell said, "a six-point race, which is really much tighter than it should be.''

The closeness of the contest belies some of the poll's own findings: When people were asked about the most important quality for a president, 54 percent cited "will bring change'' - which is supposed to be the hallmark of Obama's campaign. And 42 percent cited "experience'' - which is McCain's trademark.

But there are some demographic divides that help explain the tightness of the contest: Among white men surveyed, 55 percent favor Obama, 35 McCain. Among white suburban women, 44 percent McCain, 38 Obama. These and other divides, such as Obama's stronger appeal to younger voters, could continue to make the contest -- in this year of voter discontent with the status quo in Washington, McCain's own party -- as Andrea Mitchell put it, "really much tighter than it should be.''

by Mark Silva

As much as many of Hillary Clinton's supporters said during the heat of the party's primary contest that they would sooner vote for Republican John McCain than Democrat Barack Obama, the Illinois senator's gain in national polling in the past week has come more from women than from men.

Looking at daily tracking polls on the general election contest between Obama and McCain, Gallup's Jeffrey Jones reports: "Obama's lead among women has now expanded from five percentage points to 13, while his deficit among men has shrunk from six points to two.''

This is a comparison with tracking polls conducted May 27-June 2, the week before Obama clinched his party's nomination on June 3). That polling showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent among registered voters nationally.

Gallup's surveys from June 5-9 showed Obama holding a 48-42 percentage point advantage over McCain - as does the newest survey through Tuesday.

"While campaigning for president, Clinton demonstrated an especially strong appeal to women,'' Jones notes. "She led McCain by 52 to 40 percent in her final full week as a candidate, exactly equal to the average since mid-March.

"By comparison, Obama held only an average 47 to 42 percent lead over McCain among women during the same time span,'' Jones adds. "At least for now, he seems to be matching Clinton's performance among women versus McCain, given his current 13-point lead among female voters.''

For more, see the Gallup report.

by Mark Silva

One week after Sen. Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, the Illinois Democrat has gained a significant and "fairly stable'' advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in daily tracking polls.

The seven-point advantage that Obama holds over McCain in the latest three-day average in the Gallup Poll's daily track is now a shade larger than a six-point advantage that McCain held over Obama from April 27 to May 2 - the last and only time during a few months of Gallup tracking that McCain held the upper hand.

"Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday,'' Jeff Jones of Gallup reports. "The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.''

Obama holds a 48 to 41 precent advantage in the latest Gallup track, based on polling from Saturday through Monday. Gallup is interviewing at least 1,000 adults each day during 2008. The results from a three-day sample of 2,633 registered voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

After a long-held virtual tie in polling on a matchup between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain, the senator from Illinois has gained "a modest bump'' over the senator from Arizona following Obama's clinching of the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Obama 48 percent, McCain 42 percent.

"Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign,'' Gallup's Jeff Jones reports today.

"These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.''

The advantage is stronger if Hillary Clinton's name is added to a theoretical ticket:

"At this point, Clinton would seem to give a slight three-point boost to Obama's margin over McCain, with the Obama-Clinton ticket leading McCain by an average of 51 percent to 42 percent over the past three days,'' Jones reports.

See more in the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

While Hillary Clinton angles for a still uncertain position in this post Obama-clinches-nomination period, there is one place where most Obama supporters don't want her.

On the ticket.

"On the morning after Barack Obama's historic nomination victory, attention has quickly turned to the question of possible running mates - specifically whether Obama and Hillary Clinton will join forces in a so-called "Dream Ticket,'' the Pew Research Center reports.

"In a survey conducted in late May (May 21-25), a majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (53 percent) said they would like to see Obama choose Clinton as his running mate. However, Obama supporters viewed a possible Obama-Clinton pairing as anything but a dream. Fully 54 percent said they did not want to see Obama choose Clinton as his running mate while 37 percent said they did.

"Clinton supporters, not surprisingly, were much more open to the idea - 76 percent said they would like to see Obama to choose Clinton as his running mate.

"An analysis of the data finds that, despite the sharp differences between Obama and Clinton supporters on this issue, key Democratic voter groups - including some that have consistently supported Obama for the nomination - have a positive view of a possible Obama-Clinton ticket.

"For instance, black voters supported Obama over Clinton for the nomination by 80 percent to 15 percent in Pew's May survey. Most black Democrats (59 percent) say they would like to see Obama choose Clinton as his running mate. About the same proportion of liberal Democratic voters (58 percent) - who also supported Obama for the nomination by wide margins (61 percent to 36 percent in May) - express a positive opinion of a possible Obama-Clinton pairing.

"The prospect of Clinton taking the number two slot on the ticket attracts broad support from groups that have long favored her candidacy - less educated Democrats and women. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters (64 percent) with no more than a high school education say that Obama should choose Clinton, as do 59 percent of women.''

by Mark Silva

Not only do the Democrats have an apparent nominee today.

They also have the public's wind in their sails, according to a new survey that also reveals some unhappiness within conservative ranks of the Republican Party.

"The overall image of the Democratic Party has improved over the past year,'' the Pew Research Center reports today. "A majority of Americans (57 percent) say they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, up six points since July 2007 and 10 points since July 2006.''

This, despite dismal ratings for the Democratic-controlled Congress.

"In contrast, views of the Republican Party remain at historic lows,'' Pew has found. "Currently, 53 percent of Americans express unfavorable views of the Republican Party while only 39 percent say they have a favorable opinion of the party. These ratings are unchanged from July 2007, and have changed little since April 2006.''

The view of Congress remains dim, with 51 percent viewing Capitol Hill unfavorably. This is how it stood in in July 2007 as well. The view had improved in January 2007, just after Democrats won control of the House and Senate (just 38 percent unfavorable then).

"In historical terms, positive opinions of Congress are about as low as they were in October 1995, during the standoff between former President Clinton and the GOP-led Congress that led to a government shutdown,'' Pew notes. "In October 1995, 42 percent expressed favorable views compared with 55% who held unfavorable opinions.''

The Republicans' views of their own party are down 10 points since last year -- from 83 percent favorable in July of 2007 to 73 percent now. "Virtually all of this decline has come among conservative Republicans,'' Pew reports. Seventy-four percent of conservative Republicans hold a favorable view of the party, down from 87 percent.

Democrats are more bullish about their party, with nearly nine-in-ten voicing a favorable opinion of the party. This, despite the contentious five-month battle for the presidential nomination which would appear to be concluding today.

For more, see the Pew report.

by Frank James

Democrat Sen. Barack Obama has taken a beating from Republican Sen. John McCain lately on the senator from Illinois's oft-repeated statement that he would meet with the leaders of nations adversarial to the U.S.

But it appears Americans actually favor such meetings, according to Gallup's pollsters.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Large majorities of Democrats and independents, and even half of Republicans, believe the president of the United States should meet with the leaders of countries that are considered enemies of the United States. Overall, 67% of Americans say this kind of diplomacy is a good idea.

This is obvious good news for Obama, who can now cite this at his campaign appearance and during interviews and in response to McCain attacks.

But McCain is unlikely to let go of this line of attack since it has been a major one for him, one that has allowed him to paint Obama as naive and an attack that has received a lot of media attention.

Perhaps Gallup could next ask voters which candidate they'd prefer to meet with foreign leaders, Obama or McCain.

by Mark Silva

Heading into what well might be the homestretch of the Democratic Party's presidential nomination contest - a party rules-fight Saturday over disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, the remaining primaries Tuesday and the final dance of the decisive superdelegates - it's worth taking a measure of where everyone stands:

-- Barack Obama, Democrat, in a dead-heat with John McCain (R).

-- Hillary Clinton, Democrat, in a dead-heat with McCain.

-- Obama comfortably favored over Clinton among Democrats.

The Republicans already know who they're running: McCain. By Tuesday, or within a few days afterward, the Democrats should know their nominee as well.

There are plenty of polls on the question of who is more electable - and not only national polls, but also surveys in several battleground states on which the contest will likely turn. And of course Clinton is arguing these dynamics in her final bid to stop Obama. But for the sake of consistency, and looking at one survey that has been running on a rolling, daily basis for some time now, with three-day averages, here's what Gallup says near the close of the primary campaigns:

Obama is favored over Clinton by a solid 10 percentage points among Democrats surveyed. This is after months of a largely tied contest.

Clinton holds a 2 percentage point advantage, nationally, over McCain among all voters. Obama holds a 1-point edge over McCain.

"Clinton and Obama are now both statistically tied with McCain in the preferences of registered voters,'' Gallup reports.

Consider that: Five months from Election Day on Nov. 4, either one of the Democrats ready to claim their party's mantle stands toe-to-toe with the Republican candidate. If the last five months have made for high political drama, the next five promise an epic.

"Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination fight between Clinton and Obama goes on,'' Gallup notes -- though not for long. In Gallup Poll daily tracking from May 27-29, Obama has a 10-point advantage over Clinton in national Democratic preferences, 52 vs. 42 percent. "This... represents the continuation of a two-and-a-half week stretch during which Obama has nearly continuously held a significant lead.''

Gallup has interviewed at least 1,000 adults during 2008. The Democratic results come from surveys taken May 27-29. The survey of 1,240 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The general election results come from surveys May 24-25 and 27-29. The survey of 4,368 registered voters carries a two-point error margin.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Matthew Hay Brown

Hillary Clinton, who is looking to narrow the gap in the popular vote in the primaries that remain, enjoys a 13-point lead of Barack Obama in the largest of the three, according to one poll.

Fifty-one percent of Puerto Ricans said they plan to vote for the New York Democrat when islanders head to the polls on Sunday, according to the survey of 800 released Wednesday by the San Juan newspaper El Vocero and the Spanish-language network Univision.

Thirty-eight percent planned to vote for Obama. Eight percent said they would not vote, and 3 percent didn't know or didn't answer in the survey conducted by the firm of former Bill Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg between May 8 and 20.

It doesn't sound as if Puerto Ricans would be disappointed if Obama won the nomination: Asked whether they would support the Democratic candidate if they could vote in the general election, 72 percent said yes; only 2 percent said it depended on which candidate won the nomination. Ten percent said they would vote for John McCain.

Voter turnout has been projected as high as 1 million in this U.S. territory of 4 million, known for high rates of political awareness and partcipation, but where islanders may not vote for president.

Seventy-two percent of respondents described the primary as very or somewhat important. At stake are 55 pledged delegates, more than Montana and South Dakota combined.

Clinton, who spent three days on the island this week is due back on Saturday, has long been expected to win there. She represents 1 million Puerto Ricans in New York, many of whom have relatives on the island, and benefits from her association with her husband's administration, of which 69 percent of respondents expressed approval.

Obama has spent just 18 hours on the island, but has advertised heavily on local radio and television.

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton got more grist for her argument to Democratic superdelegates that she would perform better against Sen. John McCain than Sen. Barack Obama. She continues to lead McCain in a tracking poll's head-to-head match-up, outperforming Obama in his match-up against McCain.

A recent Gallup Poll shows her leading McCain by several percentage points in a national survey.

That compares with McCain and Obama being in a statistical tie.

Here's a snippet of Gallup's report:

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain and Barack Obama are now virtually tied at 46% to 45% when registered voters nationally are asked for whom they would vote next November if these were the two presidential nominees, while Hillary Clinton maintains a 48% to 44% margin over McCain in a hypothetical Clinton-McCain matchup.

As the end to Democratic primary and caucus voting draws near (the Puerto Rico primary on June 1 and the Montana and South Dakota primaries on June 3 will be the last), Gallup Poll Daily tracking for May 24-25 and May 27 shows that Barack Obama maintains a relatively slim 6-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 50% to 44%. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

by Don Frederick

Hillary Clinton may have scored a solid win over Barack Obama in California's presidential primary on Feb. 5 (as she frequently likes to remind folks these days), but a new L.A. Times/KTLA poll finds he would fare better than she in the battle with John McCain for the state in November (a result the Clinton camp won't be touting).

Obama led McCain in the poll, 47-40 percent; in a Clinton matchup with the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, she got 43 percent, he held steady at 40 percent.

One reason for pause for Democrats -- the margins for both of their candidates fall within the survey's error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points (though in Obama's case, just barely).

Times reporter Cathleen Decker, in a detailed analysis of the poll, notes that McCain benefits from stronger support from Latinos in California than George W. Bush got in the 2000 and 2004 presidential campaigns.

But, as Decker also writes, McCain may be disappointed if he's looking for a boost to his prospects in California from Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The new poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, found the GOP governor's approval rating among registered voters in the state has taken a big hit over just a few months. It stood at 60 percent in January; now it's at 43 percent.

Some background:

The last Republican to win the state in a White House race was George H.W. Bush in 1988; he defeated Michael Dukakis, 51-48 percent.

Bill Clinton won it in 1992 with 46 percent; Bush got 33 and Ross Perot 21. Clinton triumphed handily again in 1996, with 51 percent of the vote to Bob Dole's 38.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush, 53-42. And four years ago, John Kerry kept the state securely in the Democratic column, getting 54 percent of the vote to Bush's 44..

Don Frederick writes for Top of the Ticket, the L.A. Times political blog.

by Michael Tackett

This message is for that oppressed, neglected, passed over, bitter, gun-toting group of people otherwise known as working-class white males: You really don't matter.

To all the hand-wringing over Sen. Barack Obama's alleged problem with winning over the votes of those white men, let's counter with some other facts.

Obama has a lot of company. John Kerry. Al Gore. Bill Clinton. Michael Dukakis. Walter Mondale. Jimmy Carter. Just to name the six most recent Democratic nominees who lost the white, working-class, male vote.

In a matchup with Sen. John McCain, Sen. Hillary Clinton does no better than Obama among these voters, even though her candidacy is now portrayed as the second coming of Norma Rae.

The non-partisan Pew Research Center's latest survey shows that Obama and Clinton both would get 45 percent of the overall white vote in a matchup against McCain. Obama's appeal to white-collar men compensates for his shortcomings among blue-collar men, loosely defined as voters with only a high school education.

George W. Bush won 58 percent of the votes of all whites in 2004 and he won 54 percent of the votes of all whites in 2000. Among white males, you have to go back to 1964 to find a Democrat who won a majority, and that was Lyndon Johnson. Bill Clinton came close, winning a plurality in his 1996 rout of Republican Bob Dole.

There are a number of theories on why working-class white males have so abandoned the party they had joined with such vigor during the New Deal. The cultural identity of the Democratic Party changed, with a focus on civil rights, gender equality and opposition to the Vietnam War. Other programs of the Great Society helped to build a sturdy allegiance among minorities, while at the same time engendering resentment among many working-class white men.

See the rest of the column in today's Tribune:

by Mark Silva

Has $4 gas put a damper on your Memorial Day weekend?

Is that trip to Wally World suddenly in doubt this summer?

You're not alone. More than one-in-three Americans say they are altering their summer vacation plans as a result of rising gas prices.

The Gallup Poll has found 36 percent saying they will change plans and 21 percent saying they will stick to their summer vacation plans. The gas-price impact on summer plans appears slightly higher than it was a couple of summers ago.

Another 41 percent told Gallup that they "did not plan on traveling much during the summer, and thus are relatively unaffected by the price of gas.''

Which means, gas prices are no problem if you don't go anywhere.

See the survey here.

by Mark Silva

Here's something for John McCain to consider as he starts recruiting running mates over the Memorial Day weekend at his Arizona ranch: One in four voters think his age is trouble.

"With a win in November, John McCain would become the oldest first-term president ever,'' the Pew Research Center notes, digging out some survey work done in February.

"A quarter of registered voters (26 percent) said they think he is too old to be president, and this proportion rises to nearly a third (32 percent) when voters are informed that he is currently 71 years old,'' Pew notes.

"While the vast majority (72 percent) say they do not think McCain is too old to be president, a February 2007 Pew survey found that about half of Americans (48 percent) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate in their 70s.

"In general, McCain's age is of greater concern to older voters than it is to younger voters,'' Pew adds. "Just 24 percent of voters under age 35 themselves believe that, at 71, McCain is too old to serve. But among voters who themselves are of retirement age, 40 percent say that McCain is too old.''

See more on the surveys here.

by Frank James

Sen. Hillary Clinton is right, at least about her ability to attract white voters when compared with Sen. Barack Obama. But you don't have to take her word for it. Here's part of the analysis by Gallup's editorial chief, Frank Newport:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee, will likely enter the general election with more of a handicap among white voters than would have been the case if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, based mainly on Clinton's stronger performance among white women.

A new Gallup Poll analysis of Daily tracking data collected between May 1 and May 17 shows that Clinton's edge among white voters is not, as some have hypothesized, based on Obama's problems among blue-collar white men, but reflects more the fact of Clinton's strength among white women.

So a lot of commentary about how white, blue-collar workers are Obama's main challenge may not tell the whole story or really missing the point, according to Newport. It may be white women who actually make the critical difference.

Clinton performs better than Sen. John McCain with this group, actually getting more support now from white women than the senator from Arizona.

But Obama runs behind McCain with white women, particularly those without college education.

by Mark Silva

Sen. Barack Obama has benefitted from "a surge'' of voter support in recent days, according to the Gallup Poll, which has pegged Obama's advantage over Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democrats at a "record'' 16 points.

The results of Gallup's daily tracking surveys from May 16-18 portrayed the biggest advantage for Obama, among Democrats surveyed, since an early April high-point of 11 percentage points.

With Obama poised to claim a majority of the party's pledged delegates in primaries today, and with Obama already claiming a majority of superdelegates, the last leg of Clinton's formula for claiming the nomination depended on the argument that most Democrats would support her. Awaiting the outcome of votes in Kentucky, which Clinton expects to win, and Oregon, which Obama expects to win, Obama has gained a significant national edge in Democratic-voter sentiment.

The "broadening'' of Obama's support among Democrats since he gained the perception of being the party's likely presidential nominee is "fairly widespread,'' Gallup reports. However, the movement is most striking among young men (18-29), people with postgraduate degrees and upper-income voters. Obama holds a two-to-one advantage over Clinton among these voters surveyed, Gallup's Lydia Saad reports.

At the same time, support for Clinton among her long-supporting constituency - women, white voters, adults without college degrees and Hispanices - has fallen below 50 percent in the latest Gallup tracking.

"Bottom line,'' Gallup's Saad reports, "After nearly 20 grueling weeks on the campaign trail since he shook up the Democratic primary race by winning the Iowa caucuses, Obama has finally stretched his lead over his chief rival into the teens. Having previously captured nearly the maximum level of support from black voters, Obama's latest gains have come from a broad spectrum of rank-and-file Democrats.

"At least for now, he has expanded his position as the preferred candidate of men, young adults, and highly educated Democrats, and has erased Clinton's advantages with most of her prior core constituency groups, including women, the less well-educated, and whites,'' she notes of the survey of 1,261 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters interviewed May 16-18. The results carry a possible 3 percentage point margin of error.

For more, see the Gallup report.

by Frank James

Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute accurately captures the voters' mood.

According to the poll, McCain runs behind both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a general-election matchup:

Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.

by Mark Silva

While most Democrats are telling pollsters that Sen. Hillary Clinton should continue her contest with Sen. Barack Obama for the party's presidential nomination, most also say they like the idea of Obama tapping Clinton for his running mate.

Of course, sentiment for that "dream team'' runs stronger among Clinton's supporters than among Obama's supporters, the Gallup Poll has found.

While 55 percent of the Democrats surveyed say Obama should take Clinton, 38 percent say he should select someone else.

All sorts of names are floating out there in the great unfocused media spin bin: Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, heck, even retiring Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

But Eric Holder, one of Obama's chief advisers, said this morning in an interview on MSNBC that Clinton clearly is on Obama's "short list'' for running mates.

That sits well with Clinton's supporters - with 73 percent telling Gallup that Obama should select the senator from New York and former first lady. Yet, while 43 percent of Obama's backers like that ticket, another 52 percent say they oppose the idea.

Most surveyed say the fight should go on.

"Despite the sense of inevitability that has settled over the assumption that Obama will be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, and the discussion of the possible negative implications of Clinton's continuing campaign, a slight majority of Democrats continue to say both candidates should keep campaigning,'' Gallup Editor-in-chief Frank Newport reports.

"There is also strong support among Clinton supporters for her to be chosen as Obama's running mate, should he win the nomination. The data show that Obama supporters at the moment tend to reject that idea, but their opposition is not overwhelming.''

The May 8-11 survey carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For more, see Gallup's report today.

by Frank James

Here's some news that may help the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama get through what's expected to be a difficult couple of primaries tomorrow and next Tuesday in West Virginia and Kentucky, respectively. Gallup says he's pulling ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton in its national polling for the first time in three weeks.

Among Democratic voters, Obama has a seven-point lead, 50 percent versus 43 percent, in its polling over Clinton, Gallup said. Here's a snippet.

Although Obama did not achieve an immediate bounce in national Democratic support after last week's primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, it could be that the subsequent political punditry, proclaiming the Clinton campaign is effectively over, is affecting voters.

Not good for Clinton, certainly. But there was still a nugget of good news for Clinton which was bad news for Sen. John McCain, the all but official Republican nominee.

by Mark Silva

Now that Barack Obama claims a narrow majority of the Democratic Party's super-delegates, and with Obama poised to claim a majority of the pledged delegates in primaries on May 20, he's looking for a breakaway with the nation's Democrats.

In daily tracking of the sentiment of Democratic voters, Obama and Hillary Clinton have run a close contest for months. But neither has claimed more than 50 percent of the Democrats in the three-day averages of voters surveyed by the Gallup Poll.

With results in from the first three days of polling following Obama's big win in North Carolina and Clinton's squeaker in Indiana on Tuesday, Obama has gained another slight advantage in national daily tracking.

Yet, Gallup's Frank Newport notes, while "Obama's margin over Clinton is now larger than it has been over the last several days, he has yet to move into a significant or commanding lead, despite much discussion about the inevitability of his becoming the Democratic nominee.''

The standoff certainly has a lot to do with a lot of Democrats unwilling to give up on Clinton's candidacy as she struggles to keep a dwindling claim on the party's presidential nomination.

The results are based on a May 7-9 survey of 1,270 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For more, including a look at the contest from the start of January, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

This posting may defy the sentiment behind it: People say the media have over-covered the story of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

"The latest round of news about Barack Obama and his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright dominated campaign news coverage last week,'' the Pew Research Center finds its latest news-interest survey. "Wright's comments are by far the biggest political event of the campaign to date: Fully 62 percent say they have heard a lot or a little about Rev. Wright's recent speeches.''

And look at this: "Most Americans (59 percent) think that news organizations have overcovered the Wright controversy,'' Pew's Andy Kohut reports. "About two-thirds of Democrats (66 percent) and nearly as many independents (59 percent) say that news organizations have devoted too much coverage to Wright's recent speeches. But as many as half of Republicans agree that Wright's comments have received too much coverage.''

With all of that exposure of Obama, the Democrat who stands the strongest chance of claiming his party's presidential nomination now, and the most inciteful remarks of the fiery, longtime and now-retired pastor of Obama's church on the South Side of Chicago, comes a certain political price.

. "By the end of the week a quarter of all Americans, including 26 percent of Democrats, said their opinion of Obama had become less favorable in recent days;'' reports Kohut, president of the Pew Center. "Fewer than half as many (11 percent) said their opinion of the Illinois senator had become more favorable. ''

Those whose opinions had changed were asked about any specific incidents that prompted that. "Overall, a majority of those who said their opinion of Obama had become more negative volunteered a specific incident, with the Wright controversy mentioned most frequently (by 60 percent of those who cited a specific event).''

Of course, nearly four in ten Americans surveyed said they also had seen the photographs of Miley Cyrus that had stirred an uproar over the young skin of Hannah Montana. And that didn't do much for her image either -- among those who saw the bare-backed photo and more, 59 percent thought they were inappropriate.

Read more, here, from the weekly News Interest Index, a project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Project for Excellence in Journalism.

by Frank James

Here's an interesting finding from Gallup's pollsters -- almost as many Jewish voters say they would vote for Sen. Barack Obama for president against Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, as say they would vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton against McCain.

According to Gallup, 61 percent of Jewish voters surveyed said they'd vote for Obama in the general election versus 32 percent who say they'd vote for McCain.

That compares with 66 percent of Jewish voters who said they'd vote for Clinton to the 27 percent who said they'd vote for McCain

Gallup suggested the poll indicated that Obama hasn't been noticeably hurt by his past relationship with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., who has spoken positively of Minister Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam and has rebuked Israel for the plight of Palestinians.

Evidence of Obama's concern about Jewish support for his candidacy stretches back to at least January, when he first publicly refuted Web-fueled rumors that he is or has been a Muslim -- the implication of the rumors being that he would be sympathetic to Muslim political concerns and anti-Israel in his worldview. At the same time, he also disassociated himself from the anti-Semitic remarks of black activist Louis Farrakhan, and has recently disassociated himself from his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Thus, any damage to Jews' perceptions of Obama as someone who would be sympathetic and fair to their interests could have occurred much earlier in the campaign. However, in terms of recent events -- particularly the ongoing controversy about why Obama would have belonged to a church led by someone with Wright's anti-Israel views (among other criticisms of Wright) -- Gallup trends suggest Obama's Jewish support is holding up.

Why is this important? Here's one reason. Think Florida, which has a significant Jewish population.

by Mark Silva

A growing number of Democrats believe that the continuing contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is "doing more harm than good'' for the Democratic Party.

Six in ten - 62 percent - of the Democrats surveyed by the Gallup Poll over the last weekend said so. That's up from 56 percent in late March.

This is particularly true among Democrats who support Obama, Gallup's Frank Newport reports - "this is no doubt because Obama is the current leader in both the popular vote... and the overall delegate count. Continuing to campaign has very little upside potential for Obama and a lot of downside potential -- as may be occurring now, with Obama having to deal with continuing controversies surrounding his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Fewer Clinton supports believe so.

"Given that Clinton's only realistic chance of winning the nomination is to continue to campaign and hope events will help convince superdelegates to switch and vote for her, this pattern is not surprising,'' notes Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll.

For more, see the Gallup report.

by Mark Silva

In the state that Barack Obama calls his "tie-breaker,'' a new Indiana poll of likely Democratic voters shows Hillary Clinton gaining an edge heading into Tuesday's primary election.

"Hillary Clinton appears to have improved her electoral fortunes considerably,'' Michael Wolf and Andrew Downs report from the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University and Purdue University-Fort Wayne, noting that Clinton has started peeling independent, swing voters from Obama.

Their newewst survey shows 52 percent of likely Democratic primary voters backing Clinton, 45 percent Obama. Their survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday, marks a turning of the tables from the last poll they conducted, April 14-16, when Obama had the backing of 50 percent, Clinton 45. The survey of 689 voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

"The latest poll fell during the latest Reverend Wright controversy, with Barack Obama publicly separating himself from Wright on the second day of polling,'' the professors note. "Further, the poll was completed before Democratic superdelegates, Rep. Baron Hill and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew, endorsed Barack Obama. Consequently, the effect of all of these events is unclear.

"What is clear, however, is that Clinton has expanded her lead among strong Democratic identifiers and dramatically turned the tables on Obama with independent voters and those concerned about the worsening economy,'' they report.

"Obama's ability to attract independents paid off in earlier nomination contests, and our mid-April poll found that Obama was well ahead among this group,'' they say. "Clinton has now flipped these voters into her category with nearly the same advantage Obama held two weeks earlier with a lead among pure independents (56 percent Clinton to 38 percent Obama) Republican-leaning independents (54 percent Clinton to 46 percent Obama), and has drawn even with Democratic-leaning independents at 47 percent.)"

By Glenn Thrush

Barack Obama gobbled up a major Hillary Clinton superdelegate Thursday -- but he's suffering from a decline in the polls that coincides with the national tour conducted by his firebrand former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew -- who endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton last year -- defected to Obama Thursday, the 15th superdelegate to back him in the last week.

"We have two good candidates, but we have two people who've run their campaigns in two different ways," said Andrew, an Indiana superdelegate. "Barack Obama is serious about changing the process in politics. ... I'm inspired by someone who says, you know we don't have to play the game."

At the same time, a bevy of new polls seemed to show Obama is suffering from the "Wright Effect."

Clinton has widened her lead in Indiana, cut Obama's edge in North Carolina down to 7 points and lurched ahead in a major national poll, following a week of wall-to-wall coverage of controversial remarks by Obama's ex-pastor.

A Gallup national daily tracking poll showed Clinton jumping to a 49 to 45 lead over Obama, her biggest lead nationally since mid-March. Obama led Clinton by 10 points in the poll on the eve of the April 22 Pennsylvania primary.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Thursday showed Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat nationally, with Obama surrendering a 7-point lead in the last six weeks.

Tom Bevan, founder of Realclearpolitics.com, which tracks poll data, termed the shift a "rather dramatic tightening" of a Democratic presidential race many had considered finished prior to Clinton's Pennsylvania victory, Wright's resurfacing and Obama's belated denunciation of the pastor.

by Mark Silva

John McCain's greatest liability in November may be George W. Bush, a new poll run by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal suggest: "43 percent of registered voters say they have major concerns that McCain is too closely aligned with the current administration.

Hillary Clinton's problem may be shifting positions on issues: 36 percent say that Clinton seems to change her position on issues such as driver licenses for undocumented immigrants and the North American Free Trade Agreement, which her husband signed but she now opposes.

Barack Obama is confonting his own own words: With 34 percent saying they are bothered by his remarks about the "bitterness'' of working class voters and 32 percent voicing concern over Obama's associations with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Chicago nd onetime 1960s radical and now-Illinois professor William Ayers.

"That Bush might be the biggest albatross heading into November's presidential election is yet another sign of the difficult environment facing the Republican Party,'' NBC News reports today.

The survey found that 73 percent of voters disapproved of the president's handling of the economy and 81 percent believe the United States is in a recession. "You look at the political atmospherics, they are so clearly tilted to the Democrats," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with the Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, reports. Republicans "will need every break they can get."

by Mark Silva

Are you struggling? You're not alone.

Are you thriving? You're not alone.

Nearly as many Americans are struggling as are surving, says the Gallup Poll, which has surveyed more than 100,000 Americans since the beginning of 2008. Gallup has found: 49 percent of Americans say they are "thriving," 47 percent are "struggling," and nearly 4 percent are "suffering." The suffering, it seems, is not as bad as expected.

"The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index builds upon Gallup's long tradition of representing the "voice of the people," and ultimately, what it is that people believe constitutes a good life,'' Gallup reports. "With measures that reflect Americans' evaluations of their day-to-day lives as well as their daily emotional experiences, Gallup is now able to provide an unprecedented view of public well-being in the United States.

"The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index asks Americans to evaluate their lives by imagining a "ladder" with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where "0" represents the worst possible life and "10" represents the best possible life.

"Nationally, 49 percent of Americans say that they presently stand on steps 7 or higher of the ladder. When asked where they will stand about five years from now, Americans report that they expect to stand on steps 8 or higher. Gallup considers this group of Americans to be 'thriving.'... While nearly half fall into this category, the percentage of citizens in the thriving group is down from 60% in 2006.

"On the low end of the spectrum, 4 percent of U.S. residents say they presently stand on steps 0 to 4 of the ladder. When asked where they will stand five years from now, Americans in this group report that they expect to stand on steps 0 to 4 of the ladder, as well. Gallup considers this group of Americans to be "suffering."

For more, see the Gallup Poll report.

by Mark Silva

If there's a little bounce in Hillary Clinton's step since her Pennsylvania primary win, there's a little bounce in her poll numbers, too.

That daily tracking survey which the Gallup Poll has been running -- charting an uncannily close contest nationally between Clinton and Barack Obama for the hearts of Demoratic voters -- shows Obama and Clinton virtually tied again. Obama at 48 percent, Clinton 47 percent. And Clinton has closed the gap in the days since Pennsylvania.

The Gallup tracking from Tuesday through Thursday includes two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Gallup notes. And undecided voters have left the fence.

"Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports.

"Obama's lead dwindled steadily all week, falling from a high of 10 percentage points in interviewing conducted in the three days just prior to the Pennsylvania primary,'' Saad adds. "However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50 percent in April 19-21 polling to 48 percent today). Most of Clinton's increased support (from 40 percent to 47 percent) has come from previously undecided voters.

"Both Clinton and Obama have experienced surges in support for their candidacies at various times since the start of the primary season -- several of them linked with primary wins and other high profile events -- only to see the race revert back to a near tie position,'' she adds.

See the full report here.

by Mark Silva

Barack Obama has called Indiana his "tie-breaker'' in the three-state series of primaries that started with Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania this week.

With Obama holding an apparent advantage in North Carolina on May 6, the question remains: What will Indiana's Democrats do on the Sixth?

Two polls coming out of Indiana suggest that Obama and Clinton both have a lot of work to do in Indiana in the next week and a half.

The South Bend Tribune's poll potrays a dead heat: 48 percent of the Democrats surveyed supporting Obama, 47 percent Clinton. The poll of 400 voters likely to take part in the primary was run Wednesday and Thursday by the Tribune and three Indiana TV stations, and carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Indianapolis Star has reported on a survey run Sunday through Wednesday, with another virtual tie: Obama 41 percent, Clinton 38 percent. The survey of 535 likely Democratic primary voters carries a possible margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Looks like the Indiana campaign ahead could indeed be a tie-breaker.

by Frank James

It looks like President Bush has achieved a historical mark but it's certainly one he could have done without.

Gallup says Bush's 69 percent disapproval rating is the highest it's ever recorded in history.

That's right, his disapproval rating even surpasses that of President Richard Nixon at the height of Watergate.

But while Bush has the highest negative ratings Gallup has ever recorded for a president, he doesn't have the lowest positives. President Harry Truman had a 23 percent favorable rating. Bush isn't far from that at 28 percent but he still can hang onto the fact that he has higher approval ratings than Truman.

Gallup explains that seeming inconsistency between approval and disapproval ratings thusly:

President Bush's approval rating now is at 28%, which ties for the lowest of his administration, but is not the lowest in Gallup Poll history. Harry Truman reached a 23% approval rating in 1951 and in 1952, and Richard Nixon had two 24% job approval scores in 1974.

Harry Truman's two 23% approval ratings were accompanied by 61% and 67% disapproval ratings, leaving 16% and 10% of those interviewed who did not offer an opinion about his job performance. Richard Nixon's two 24% job approval ratings in 1974 were paired with 63% and 66% disapproval ratings, leaving 13% and 10% with no opinion.

by Mark Silva

A 10-point advantage that Sen. Barack Obama held over Sen. Hillary Clinton in Gallup's national daily tracking poll just one week ago has vanished - with Gallup reporting Clinton's first marginal lead over Obama among Democratic voters in a month.

Clinton's 46-45 percentage point edge over Obama - a statistical tie, really, but the first time that Democrats have leaned in Clinton's direction since March 18-20 - follows the contentious debate in Philadelphia last week that Obama derided as a "gotcha'' fest but Clinton claimed as a victory.

The newest survey results reported Saturday come from polling April 16-18, including two days following the debate. "Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent nights,'' Gallup's Frank Newport reports.

Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, notes that there "has been no change in the general election trial heats, with Obama's margin over Republican John McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent among registered voters nationally, and Clinton's margin holding at 46 to 44 percent.

It's a tie, all the way around -- a remarkable backdrop for the campaign unfolding over the next six and a half months.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.